Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. Just Missed Earnings – But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Explore Madison Square Garden Entertainment’s Fair Values from the Community and select yours

Last week, you might have seen that Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (NYSE:MSGE) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.1% to US$36.83 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$943m were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 16% to hit US$0.77 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Madison Square Garden Entertainment after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Madison Square Garden Entertainment are now predicting revenues of US$998.8m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 5.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 135% to US$1.86. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$996.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.96 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Madison Square Garden Entertainment

The consensus price target held steady at US$45.38, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Madison Square Garden Entertainment, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$48.00 and the most bearish at US$41.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business’ future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Madison Square Garden Entertainment’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Madison Square Garden Entertainment’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 26% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Madison Square Garden Entertainment is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Madison Square Garden Entertainment. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it’s tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Madison Square Garden Entertainment’s revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Madison Square Garden Entertainment going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Madison Square Garden Entertainment is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning…

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.