3 prospects Royals must protect from Rule 5 Draft, 3 they can leave unprotected

The 2025 season is winding down, meaning that front offices will soon start to shift their focus to constructing what their organization will look like in 2026.

While the Kansas City Royals’ immediate focus will surely be on their current battle to secure a second consecutive postseason berth, it’s never a bad time to look at the offseason and do a bit of pre-planning before the hot stove gets starts burning and the winter chaos commences.

The Royals will have to strategize on how they set their 40-man roster and one of the biggest ways to do that is through the Rule 5 Draft.

As a contending organization, selecting players in the Rule 5 festivities has become less of a priority for Kansas City as it has for them in the past, even as a smaller market organization. That means, their focus here is primarily on who they’ll need to protect.

There’s a lengthy list of names that are set to be exposed if the Royals don’t take action to add them to the fold before the 40-man roster deadline this offseason. However, not all of these names are worth protecting.

So, let’s dive in to some names the Royals need to protect and some who they can absolutely leave exposed to MLB’s 29 other organizations.

3 prospects Royals must protect from Rule 5 Draft

C Carter Jensen

I could sit here and wax poetic for hours on end about how talented a prospect Carter Jensen is. However, there’s no sense in rambling here on why the Royals need to protect him.

He’s at Top 100 prospect and the Royals’ No. 2 overall prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. He’s currently on a roll in Triple-A at the moment too, since receiving his promotion earlier this season.

Across the upper minors in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this season, Jensen is slashing .283/.366/.478 with 17 home runs, 67 RBI and a 129 wRC+ in 465 plate appearances.

J.J. Picollo and the Royals’ front office arguably shouldn’t even wait until the offseason to add Jensen to the 40-man roster, as given the current struggles their veteran backstops in Salvador Perez and Luke Maile are having at the plate in August – they sport an 83 wRC+ and -41 wRC+ respectively – there’s a strong case that Jensen could receive somewhat regular big league at-bats now.

LHP Frank Mozzicato

Next, we move to Jensen’s MLB Future’s game mate in Frank Mozzicato, the Royals’ No. 21 overall prospect according MLB Pipeline.

Unlike Jensen though, Mozzicato isn’t likely a threat to reach the majors in 2026. After a torrid start to his 2025 season in High-A Quad City – where he sported a 1.24 ERA in seven starts – he’s experienced some major growing pains in the upper minors.

In his first 14 outings (10 of which have been starts) for Double-A Northwest Arkansas, Mozzicato has looked completely overmatched, throwing to a 9.28 ERA, 6.19 FIP, 2.16 WHIP and .304 BAA.

Long adjustment periods have seemed to be a trend for the 22-year-old southpaw in his professional career, so hopefully he can improve upon his lackluster introduction to Double-A next season.

His control issues may not make him a suitable MLB candidate in 2026, however as prospect with first-round pedigree fresh of an appearance in the Futures Game , he poses as too enticing a project to leave exposed, even if it means the Royals would essentially be working with a 39-man roster for 2026.

RHP Ben Kudrna

Now we move to an arm that does have a shot to make an impact the big level in 2026 in Ben Kudrna, fresh off his Triple-A debut.

A strong second half to his Double-A career brought him back down to a low-4.00s ERA and earned him a spot in Omaha’s rotation.

While he may’ve gotten blown up a bit in his Storm Chasers debut, it was due to a nightmare five-run fifth inning, as Kudrna looked sharp for the first four frames of his 5.1 inning start.

The Royals have been starving for quality young pitching depth to complement their current rotation, trying to fill those gaps with grizzled veterans like Rich Hill and Dallas Keuchel this season. So, to have a top 10 ranked prospect like Kudrna now only a stone’s throw away from the majors, it makes all the sense in the world to protect him and keep him in the mix for 2026.

3 prospects Royals can leave unprotected for Rule 5 Draft

INF Peyton Wilson

At the beginning of the season, Peyton Wilson looked all but poised to be a part of the Royals’ plans moving forward, as his start to Double-A season rivaled that of Jac Caglianone at the time.

Since being promoted to Triple-A though, Wilson has looked uninspiring at the plate, slashing just .213/.306/.303 with three homers, 25 RBI and a 63 wRC+.

His blistering speed and above average fielding abilities could make him a name to watch if he’s left exposed ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, but that shouldn’t make the Royals rush to protect him.

Given the likes of Jonathan India occupying the second base position at the major league level and other utility names in Tyler Tolbert, Nick Loftin and Michael Massey already on the 40-man depth chart at second, the need to add another scuffling bat to the major league mix doesn’t seem worth it.

LHP Tyson Guerrero

It’s been a rough year for the 26-year-old left-hander in Tyson Guerrero, suffering a season-ending injury after just three starts to the minor league season.

At the end of the day though, in those three Triple-A starts he was only sporting a 5.91 ERA and his 3.69 ERA in Double-A last season was the only sub-4.00 showing he’s had in his career at the upper minors level.

The Royals may have to face the fact that at 26-years-old, Guerrero might just be a minor league depth guy when he returns.

If at some point in 2026, he can be major league contributor, great. However, it’s not worth planning the offseason around something he might be able to be.

If you lose him to a team that feels he can be a bullpen contributor at the big league level in 2026, then that’s just something you have to live with if you’re the Royals’ brass.

RHP Chandler Champlain

Finally, we have Chandler Champlain, who is only a year removed from being just on the fringes of Royals’ top 10 prospects.

However, the 2025 Triple-A season has not been kind to the 26-year-old right-hander, as he’s looked lost on the mound for seemingly the entire campaign and fallen out of the organization’s top 30 rankings.

In 105.1 innings across 23 starts in Omaha, Champlain is throwing to a ridiculously high 8.03 ERA along with a 5.75 FIP, 1.78 WHIP and .318 BAA.

With the Royals drafting well in this summer it came to older collegiate arms, it’s pretty safe to assume the upper minors will be well-stocked in the next few seasons with arms in their 20s who could rise through the system in just a matter of seasons, such as now Top 30 organizational prospects in Michael Lombardi and Justin Lamkin – who now join a pretty strong existing prospect pitching core.

The system seems to be growing without Champlain naturally, so there’s no need for the Royals to intentionally include him in their plans moving forward.