There is still some non-zero chance that the Royals rip off 10 wins in a row and sneak into the playoffs, but at this point I am assuming they are done. The pitching is just too depleted and the offense has not been very good for most of the season, so it seems very unlikely that any miracles are coming. That is a bit disappointing. It would have been fun to have another playoff year, but I think it is hard to look at 2025 as anything other than a success at this point regardless of the final record.
Kansas City, as an organization, was not in a very good place from 2018 through 2023. The two World Series runs immediately before that were an oasis of success surrounded by vast deserts of 90 and 100-loss seasons. Then, suddenly, the team was good in 2024. Adding Lugo and Wacha as free agents, along with a brilliant trade for Ragans the prior deadline, had turned a very bad rotation into one of the best in baseball. The bullpen was weak, but trading for Lucas Erceg and the return of Kris Bubic after Tommy John surgery bolstered it enough down the stretch. It was a fun season, but often teams that break out that much will fall back a bit next year, and they have. They did not fall back very far, however. The Royals are playing meaningful baseball into September, and they are still on track to finish around .500. That’s two competitive seasons in a row, but more than that, I think we can expect more of the same over the next few seasons.
This season was a success because they added depth to the rotation through player development and trade:
The Royals brought a lot of depth into the pitching staff in 2025. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are now signed up for a few more years, so the top four looking at next year looks similar to what we would have expected this year. Bubic has shown a new level and really made that front four extremely solid – assuming they are healthy. Even if they are not, we have seen good things from the additions of Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert, and Stephen Kolek. That’s seven starters that are either good or have shown the potential to be good, an embarrassment of riches compared to the majority of rotations I have seen from the Royals in my lifetime. Even after that, there is more depth, and also questions, with Alec Marsh and Brady Falter. I do not know how 2026 will play out, but there are enough arms and enough quality to assume this rotation will again be a strength and 2027 likely too since only Bubic is slated to leave after next year.
This season was a success as top prospects grew into big league roles:
The lineup has been a problem for the majority of the year, and the outfield in particular. That problem is not completely solved, but I would expect better production next year from the corners in particular. Jac Caglianone has shown that he is not terrible in right field. I do not get the impression he is exactly good just because of his limited range, but if he is hitting, then he will be a solid option and much better than what has been in right field for the majority of this year. His plate appearances since coming back from the hamstring injury have looked a lot better, and he is young with lots of potential. I think we should expect him to be league-average at worst next year at the plate and play in right most of the time. Carter Jensen has also made it up and is probably the second catcher next year, now that Freddie Fermin is no longer on the team. His patience at the plate will be valuable and maybe more importantly his ability to keep Salvador Perez from playing too much. Those two promotions are a big step forward in having a lineup that is deeper and more formidable. There are still questions, especially in left field and second base, but I can see this team being structured a lot better going into the season next year rather than scrambling and having to try a bunch of untested players in the outfield like this spring.
This season was a success as a pitching pipeline is forming in the minors:
Pitching development going from the biggest organizational weakness to the main strength in a couple of years is kind of insane, but that transition continues apace. Now you can see the constant pipeline forming in the minors that could turn the Royals into a club like the Rays, Guardians, or Brewers where year in and year out the pitching is solid and contention is a near constant. Not every prospect hits of course, but enough of them are. Beyond the Noah Cameron, Luinder Avila, and Jonathan Bowlan group that has had impact at the pro level this year there are a lot of possibilities working their way up the chain toward the big league club.
Ben Kudrna is the closest. Triple-A has been bumpy for him, but there are signs there that he can be something. The two brightest shining prospects of the group are David Shields and Kendry Chourio, who are precociously showing promise in full-season ball when most people at that age are still working on graduating high school still. I know Shields has turned 19 now, which is still very young to be putting up a 5.4 K/BB in A ball. There is still some work to do to get to a place where every year a new starter and a couple of new relievers are ready to make the jump and add depth to the 40-man. I am optimistic now that they will get there, and that would make a big difference in how this team is constructed going forward. it means all that starting pitching depth can be looked at as a way to guarantee a low floor from the rotation or as a way to trade and get better in a key place like center field.
There is more I could go into on why I like what has happened for the Royals in 2025, but those are the big three for me. Bobby and Vinnie continue to headline the young core and have been joined by Garcia. It is not that there weren’t steps taken backward as well. Michael Massey and MJ Melendez have definitely disappointed this year. The bullpen was better and has some things to be optimistic about, but I think the aforementioned pipeline is the main way to ensure solid bullpens year to year. I am just more impressed with the JJ Picollo front office with each passing year. It has made me more confident that contention is possible through development and trade even though this is likely not going to ever be a top-10 payroll team consistently. Do not let the fact that they came up short entirely ruin 2025 if you are a Royals fan. Zoom out a bit, the big picture has been improving for a while now, and I think the future is looking very bright.
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