The Royals are flush with pitching heading into the offseason

The Royals have built their pitching staff from the ground up, with Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, and Angel Zerpa being the only remaining players who were with the organization when Matt Quatraro took over in 2023. In that time, JJ Piccolo and the Royals’ pitching department have turned the team’s reputation on its head. In just one year, the Royals went from having the third-worst ERA in baseball in 2023 to having the eighth-best in 2024.

This type of turnaround helped take the Royals to the playoffs in 2024 and completely shifted how people felt about the team. While the Royals will not be playing in the postseason this year, the pitching department has continued to show what makes Kansas City so special. Despite injuries hitting all five of the Royals’ opening day starters as well as several key relievers, the Royals are sixth in team ERA and have shown an impressive ability to develop young pitchers across the board.

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The Royals’ injuries exposed their lack of depth within the organization and prompted them to make numerous moves to stay in the playoff race. Rookies like Noah Cameron, Steven Cruz, and Luinder Avila have stepped up in a big way, and the Royals also made some big trades at the deadline to add pitching depth in the rotation, adding Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert, and Bailey Falter.

The good news for the Royals is that most of their young additions to the roster has looked impressive so far in their career. The bad news is that this sets the Royals up for a unique situation in 2026, as they will have to figure out how to manage their incredibly talented pitching staff. They will be left with several tough decisions in both the bullpen and the rotation that will be the subject of discussion this offseason.

Here is my current projection for the 2026 starting rotation:

Starters: Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert

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Left out: Stephen Kolek, Alec Marsh, Ben Kudrna, Bailey Falter

The rotation will be the hardest thing for the Royals to figure out, as they have seven or eight guys who are worthy of holding a major league role. I elected to go with a six-man rotation, with Ryan Bergert beating out Stephen Kolek for that last starter spot on the roster. Kolek has impressed me quite a bit in a smaller sample size, but Bergert has flashed since he arrived in Kansas City, and I think his impressive stuff will win him the job out of the gate.

Alec Marsh is also a name we can’t forget about, as he has spent the entire season on the injured list. I liked what I saw from Marsh as a fifth starter last season, and if he is healthy, he will make a case to be in the rotation or in a long relief role in 2026. Bailey Falter will also be in the conversation for a long relief role, but I think it is more likely that he is non-tendered this offseason due to his struggles after being traded to the Royals

There have been some rumors of trades for the Royals’ rotation, but the question becomes: Who gets moved? Ragans, Lugo, and Wacha have signed contracts with the Royals, committing significant money to each of them, making it unlikely that Kansas City will move on from them. Kris Bubic is coming off another season-ending injury, and the Royals likely won’t get the value they want for him. Cameron is a local kid who just had an impressive rookie season, and Bergert and Kolek were just added at the deadline and have been great so far.

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To me, it feels like a disservice for both Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek to be sent down to the minor leagues after how well they have played in Kansas City this year. Unfortunately, there may not be any room in the rotation, and one of them will be pushed out. Even with a six-man rotation, if the Royals keep all their starters (which I think they will) one of them is pushed down, making for a tough decision next season.

Here is my current projection for the 2026 bullpen:

Bullpen: Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Steven Cruz, Daniel Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa, Taylor Clarke

Left out: Luinder Avila, James McArthur, Eric Cerantola, Sam Long, Jonathan Bowlan

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Late season potential options: Dennis Colleran, AJ Causey, Drew Beam, Steven Zobac, Hunter Owen

With six starters in the rotation, the Royals would only be able to carry seven relievers in 2026. The limitation of one less spot will make the bullpen spots that much harder to figure out. Assuming the Royals don’t make any trades, I think the Royals will be forced to option Luinder Avila for the start of 2026. You also can’t forget about James McArthur, who, for a significant part of 2024, was the Royals’ closer and will likely return from injury.

The Royals have to make the tough decision to move on from Jonathan Bowlan if they wind up using a six-man rotation, as he is out of options. Taylor Clarke has been impressive this season and has completely revamped his pitching style, making it hard to take him out of the 2026 group. I also have the Royals either trading or non-tendering Sam Long after he struggled this season, although with his past success in 2024 (and other even-numbered years for some reason), the Royals may give him a chance in spring training.

It is worth mentioning that the Royals could look to trade one of their veteran bullpen arms to add some bats before 2026. Carlos Estévez is coming off the best season of his career and will turn 33 in December, and 2026 is the last year of team control for John Schreiber. Jonathan Bowlan and Taylor Clarke have been solid this season and are out of minor league options, making them potentially expendable if there is not room next year. If the Royals can add a productive outfield hitter, they may be willing to pull the trigger on a big trade this offseason.

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They will also have young arms like Dennis Colleran and AJ Causey, who have been dominant relievers in the minor leagues, who could be knocking on the door. Colleran is a power righty who brings true closer stuff and can be unhittable when he is on with his command. Causey is a “side armer” and looks to move the ball across the zone. He gets tons of lateral movement on both his fastball and nasty slider/sweeper, making him a very hard pitcher to get hard contact off of.

Regardless, there will be a lot to discuss surrounding the Royals’ pitching staff this offseason and who should be on the team in 2026. The rotation is so crowded, and the bullpen has so many options for success, that it is hard to know what the Royals will do this offseason. Nonetheless, we know the Royals not only have talent in their pitching staff, but they have options for how to proceed this offseason.