Emmy rematch shaping up for 2026 Golden Globes

Don’t adjust your TV sets — this isn’t a rerun.

One of the biggest stories heading into September’s Emmy Awards was whether voters would go with their heart (The Pitt) or their head (Severance) for Best Drama Series. HBO Max’s more traditional medical show ultimately prevailed over Apple TV+’s cutting-edge sci-fi series. Based on the latest prediction data, Gold Derby is predicting a rematch at the 2026 Golden Globes. But will the outcome be the same?

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Season 1 of The Pitt leads our Golden Globe odds with a 98 percent chance of receiving a nomination for Best Drama Series. Season 2 of Severance is close behind at 96 percent. The other four likely nominees are HBO’s The White Lotus (Season 3), HBO’s The Last of Us (Season 2), Disney+’s Andor (Season 2), and Apple TV+’s The Morning Show (Season 4).

Drama Series

Contender

Odds

The Pitt

97.4%

Severance

95.6%

The White Lotus

93.0%

The Last of Us

64.2%

Andor

62.9%

The Morning Show

59.3%

We noted the season numbers for each series because up until 2023, the Hollywood Foreign Press was the voting body behind the Globes, and they tended to reward the newest, shiniest shows and putting them on the map. Sometimes, the awards calendar hit just right and the Globes called out dramas like House of the Dragon in 2022, The Crown in 2016, and Homeland in 2011, which all premiered after the Emmy cycle.

Other times, the Emmys get first dibs at honoring a new drama, if that series debuts between January and May, and the Globes play copycat a few months later — as with Shōgun in 2024 and The Handmaid’s Tale in 2017. The Pitt would follow the latter pattern, should it ultimately prove triumphant.

Golden Globe voters already had the chance to anoint Severance for its first season in 2022, but they went with the aforementioned Game of Thrones prequel instead. Does that mean Severance is now out of luck because Season 1 lost? Not at all! In fact, two decades ago, a similar thing happened three times in a row.

Nip/Tuck in 2004, Lost in 2005, and Grey’s Anatomy in 2006 all won Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes for their second seasons after previously losing for their first seasons. However, Severance is unique in that it took a three-year break between seasons, whereas Nip/Tuck, Lost, and Grey’s Anatomy all aired in consecutive years.

Before we continue, we must note that only so much can be inferred from past Globes history; the voting body has completely changed, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association being replaced by the Golden Globe Foundation in 2023. (Note: Penske Media owns Gold Derby, as well as Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions in a joint venture with Eldridge.)

Succession was snubbed at the Golden Globes for Season 1, but then went on to win Best Drama Series for Seasons 2, 3, and 4. That exactly matches its Emmy trajectory. Elsewhere at the Globes, Breaking Bad prevailed on its last hurrah in 2013 despite only getting in for the first time the year prior. In other words, Severance is still very much in this race despite its previous loss.

Besides Grey’s Anatomy and Nip/Tuck, other medical dramas to win the top Golden Globe include Marcus Welby, M.D. (1969) and Medical Center (1970). But the hugely popular ER never won Best Drama Series, and holds the record for the most nominations in the category (seven) without a Globe win.

See Gold Derby’s prior story about why The Pitt wouldn’t exist without ER

Noah Wyle in 'The Pitt' and 'ER' — Noah Wyle in ‘The Pitt’ and ‘ER’HBO Max and Everett Collection

For ER, Noah Wyle received three Golden Globe bids as a supporting actor, but now he’s up in the lead race for The Pitt. He plays Michael “Robby” Robinavitch on the HBO Max show, a senior attending physician at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Center. Wyle claimed his first two career Emmys last month for producing and starring in The Pitt. Among the other actors he beat out was Severance‘s Adam Scott, a severed worker for Lumon Industries in the Macrodata Refinement (MDR) department.

When it comes to predicting Golden Globes nominations, Gold Derby has Wyle in front, followed by Scott, Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), Sterling K. Brown (Paradise), Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us), and Diego Luna (Andor). All but Luna competed at the Emmys this year for Best Drama Actor.

TV Drama Actor

Contender

Odds

Noah Wyle

The Pitt

97.5%

Adam Scott

Severance

96.5%

Gary Oldman

Slow Horses

91.6%

sterling-k-brown

Sterling K. Brown

Paradise

89.9%

Diego Luna

Andor

86.1%

Pedro Pascal

The Last of Us

68.1%

Severance won eight Emmys, including Britt Lower for Best Drama Actress and Tramell Tillman for Best Drama Supporting Actor. Lower is leading all the expected Globe nominees in that category for playing a rebellious severed employee in the MDR department at Lumon. Her closest competitor is Kathy Bates (Matlock), who many pundits thought would take home the Emmy Award.

TV Drama Actress

Contender

Odds

Britt Lower

Severance

97.8%

Kathy Bates

Matlock

95.9%

Keri Russell

The Diplomat

92.0%

Bella Ramsey

The Last of Us

82.0%

Jennifer Aniston

The Morning Show

81.2%

Carrie Coon

The Gilded Age

76.0%

As for Tillman, he ranks second behind 15-year-old Owen Cooper, the Emmy champ from the limited series Adolescence. While the Globes separate supporting television performances by gender, the genres are combined for dramas, comedies, limited series, and TV movies.

TV Supporting Actor

Contender

Odds

Owen Cooper

Adolescence

96.6%

Tramell Tillman

Severance

96.6%

Walton Goggins

The White Lotus

90.7%

Ike Barinholtz

The Studio

90.2%

Billy Crudup

The Morning Show

71.3%

Ebon Moss-Bachrach

The Bear

51.4%

Meanwhile, after winning the Best Drama Supporting Actress Emmy for The Pitt, featured player Katherine LaNasa has been steadily rising in our Golden Globe nomination predictions, currently placing ninth. The ones to beat right now are Erin Doherty (Adolescence) and Hannah Einbinder (Hacks), the respective Emmy winners for limited and comedy.