Royals pitching was, to put it kindly, a disaster before Brian Sweeney took over. In 2022, they posted a 4.72 ERA, a strikeout rate of 19.1 percent and a walk rate of 9.4 percent. It would be fair to wonder if Sweeney and his crew were worth it when they actually posted a worse ERA in 2023, but there were minimal signs, like the first-pitch strike rate rising from 58 percent to 60.7 percent. That coaching group entered spring with the mantra “raid the zone.” The idea was to throw the ball down the middle and let the movement take over, because not all pitches down the middle get hit, and that’s if the pitch stays in the middle. Their percentage of pitches in the zone, according to Sports Info Solutions, went all the way from 41.2 percent to…41.5 percent. Woof.
But things got better in 2024, as we know. They were in the zone 42.6 percent of the time. First-pitch strikes jumped to 61.6 percent. The numbers were obviously better. The ERA dipped almost a run and a half to 3.76 while strikeouts jumped to 22.3 percent and the walk rate plummeted to 7.9 percent. Progress! It obviously resulted in a trip to the postseason. Some of that was the personnel, but some of that was the philosophy finally seeping into the pitching staff. It was a welcome sight. One thing I noticed during the 2024 run, though, is that they just didn’t get much chase. The same SIS shows that their chase rate in 2024 was 30.5 percent. That was fourth-worst in baseball. It was the same 30.5 percent in 2025, and it was fifth-worst.
It’s not a death sentence for a pitching staff, obviously. The Royals have fared quite well the last two seasons. But I don’t think being able to succeed without getting chase is the norm, particularly because the Royals don’t fare particularly well in terms of “stuff” from their pitchers. Again, it’s worked, and it’s not a problem, but similar to a team that doesn’t hit the ball out of the park, you’re sort of living on the edge and it could blow up at any time. It’s sort of similar to how a strikeout is an out (almost) every time while a batted ball turns into an out about 70 percent of the time.
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