Spring training is underway, and the 2026 regular season is fast approaching. The Kansas City Royals enter the year with high expectations. Although the club finished above .500 last season, it fell short of its primary goal of reaching the postseason.
Since making a push for the postseason in 2024, the Royals have established new expectations for the organization. They enter this season with a clear plan and are hopeful the work done by general manager J.J. Picollo and the front office this offseason, along with continued development from the roster, will be enough to carry them into October.
Baseball Prospectus uses a system called the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, better known as PECOTA, and it projects the Royals to do more than simply reach the postseason.
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Royals atop American Leauge Central
PECOTA released its projected standings for the 2026 season on Tuesday and has Kansas City winning the American League Central with an 85-77 record. The projection comes as a surprise, not because the Royals lack the ability to capture the division, but because PECOTA and most analytical models historically have not favored Kansas City.
It is no secret that the Royals were active this offseason. The club made notable moves, including trading for Isaac Collins and signing Lane Thomas in hopes of strengthening the corner outfield, an area that proved to be a weakness last season. The Royals also acquired Matt Strahm to bolster the bullpen and secured All-Star Maikel Garcia to a deal following a career year.
Despite not making any blockbuster moves, the Royals believe they have built a solid foundation. The organization is confident that young slugger Jac Caglianone will find his footing at the major league level and that continued development from Carter Jensen will also play a significant role in helping push them over the edge.
The upgrades in the outfield and the anticipated growth of the young core were enough for PECOTA to project the Royals not only to reach the postseason but to win the AL Central, something Kansas City has not accomplished since winning the World Series in 2015.
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