The 98th Academy Awards — The Panther Newspaper

From “Sinners”’ debut in April to “One Battle After Another” exploding onto the scene in September, the direction of the 98th Academy Awards season has ebbed and flowed for months on end. The Panther and its Features & Entertainment staff have been buzzing about this current awards season for nearly a year now. F&E Editor Benjamin Price and Staff Writer Logan Schuneman, who each dedicate ridiculous amounts of time to talking every step of this race and the numerous movies that have come and gone, have put together their predictions.

Below are seven of the most talked-about categories (one of which is brand new this year in Best Casting) to break down. Below, you can see who we think will win, along with who we think should and a brief moment to highlight work we feel should’ve been represented.

Best Casting — Logan

What will win: “Sinners”

What should win: “Hamnet” 

What should have been nominated: “Sentimental Value”

As the first new category since the introduction of Best Animated Film in 2001, there’s an excitement in not knowing exactly what direction voters of this branch will go in. Generally, it seems safe to assume that this is a category for “Sinners” to carry out its accumulation of wins throughout the ceremony. Beyond Michael B. Jordan’s performance, the entire ensemble of “Sinners” is brimming with talent from newcomers like Miles Caton to a career best for Wunmi Mosaku and a celebratory veteran performance from Delroy Lindo.

While “Sinners” would evidently be a deserving winner, it would also be nice to see a film like “Hamnet” win. With one of the best child performances in recent memory from Jacobi Jupe, matched only by his older brother Noah Jupe in the film’s conclusion, the casting of “Hamnet” produces much of its tender intimacy.

Best Supporting Actor — Ben

Who will win: Delroy Lindo  (“Sinners”)

Who should win: Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”)

Who should have been nominated: James Raterman (“One Battle After Another”)

It feels like anyone could win this category (except for maybe Jacob Elordi). However, I’m going to go with Delroy Lindo, who plays Delta Slim in “Sinners.” Now, Sean Penn has plenty of momentum and the wins to back it up, slobbery comb and all, and Stellan Skarsgård has a lot of goodwill after decades spent in the movies, not to mention a vital part of “Sentimental Value,” which certainly has its fans. 

I just have a feeling about the love that’s out there for Lindo and this performance in particular. He broke a key precedent in the Oscar races for actors by getting nominated in this category, as he was not nominated at any (and I mean none) of the other major award shows. Not only does this speak to the Academy’s love for “Sinners,” but their love for this performance, and given there are two performances from “One Battle” competing here, I think the votes flow in Lindo’s favor. There’s no way he would’ve been represented here, but my pick for this category is James Raterman, a non-professional actor, who plays the only force more frightening than Sean Penn in “One Battle” and has line readings that echo in my head as I write this (“No more jokes?”).

Best Supporting Actress — Logan

Who will win: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)

Who should win: Igna Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”)

Who should have been nominated: Son Yejin (“No Other Choice”)

One of the night’s tightest categories, it seems as though Amy Madigan has taken the slight edge for the gold after winning the SAG Actor Award for supporting actress. At the end of the day, this seems to be a three-horse race between Madigan, Teyana Taylor for “One Battle After Another” and Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners.” While Taylor and Mosaku have excellent performances with plenty of wins to statistically support a win in this category, it seems as though Madigan has the clear narrative to take home the award. Although “Weapons” is outside the Academy’s usual field as a horror movie, the Academy adores comeback narratives and veteran performances, which Madigan fully embodies.

Nevertheless, it would be nice to see a newcomer like Igna Ibsdotter Lilleaas win for her performance in “Sentimental Value.” While perhaps not as flashy as Madigan’s Aunt Gladys, Lilleaas’s performance presents a quiet nuance that manages to stand out in a film filled with four outstanding performances (including Elle Fanning, who is also nominated in the category).

Best Director — Ben

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)

Who should win: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)

Who should have been nominated: Joseph Kosinski (“F1”)

I have a feeling this is where “One Battle”’s awards season run comes to an end, but nevertheless, Paul Thomas Anderson is almost certainly going to win this award. He won the top prize from the Directors Guild of America (DGA), a frequent bellwether for this category, matching up with the winner for Best Director 13 out of the last 15 times. And I struggle to recall a time when the award went to someone this deserving. “One Battle” is unlike anything else Anderson has made in his already illustrious career, and yet I still felt in the hands of someone who was born to make movies. All that said, I wouldn’t entirely count out a surprise win for Ryan Coogler for “Sinners.” 

This is a strong set of nominees, but I must admit thatrecognizing “F1” in Best Picture, as well as for its sound and editing, while  not acknowledging director Joseph Kosinski, is a decision I can’t abide by. The Academy loves to represent blockbuster entertainment by only acknowledging them for visuals and volume, but not the hands that weave them.

Best Actor — Ben

Who will win: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)

Who should: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)

Who should have been nominated: Channing Tatum (“Roofman”)

I’m choosing to dream big and bet on Timothée Chalamet for his performance as the titular “Marty Supreme.” The momentum, at the time of this writing, is definitely in Michael B. Jordan’s direction for his dual lead performance in “Sinners,” but I’m holding on. Jordan’s been in the industry longer; it remains to be seen if this love for “Sinners” has any bound — plus, he hasn’t had anything bad to say about ballet. Everything about this race favors Jordan winning on Sunday, and yet, I refuse to bet against Timmy. 

I do love Chalamet’s performance, so my own bias is in play, but there’s something about the hit that movie became as a result of Timmy’s persistence and sheer charisma that I don’t think will be forgotten. But that may be wishful thinking. The real Best Actor, however, is Channing Tatum in the already underappreciated “Roofman,” playing a similarly flawed figure living his life on the edge.

Best Actress — Logan

Who will win: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)

Who should win: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)

Who should have been nominated: Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”)

Raw, vulnerable and persistently devastating, Jessie Buckley’s performance in “Hamnet” might be one of the defining performances of the decade. Encapsulating insurmountable grief into silent cries and a fraught physicality, the pain Agnes Shakespeare faces is deeply singular, but Buckley effectively universalizes this experience of grief. With the underlying emphasis on clinging to remaining spaces of love and art, Buckley’s performance grounds “Hamnet” in its exploration of the human condition.

That being said, the year has been full of excellent lead actress performances. In this category, Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”) proves her range in a delightfully anxious performance. But, a clear snub from the category, Amanda Seyfried in “The Testament of Ann Lee” is an underrated performance this year, filled with the sense of finding power in openness and vulnerability. While Searchlight botched the awards campaign for “Ann Lee,” Seyfried’s performance is nearly as captivating as the titular religious leader. Nevertheless, Buckley’s going to win this category, and it’s beyond deserved.

Best Picture — Ben

What will win: “Sinners”

What should win: “Sinners”

What should have nominated: “The Naked Gun”

This year’s Best Picture race presents a unique complication that is borderline unprecedented. Often, this category boils down to two very different kinds of movies and different studios butting heads for Oscar glory. But here we have two big-budget and deeply personal films from celebrated filmmakers, both widely seen. And above all that, they’re both from the same studio, Warner Bros., thanks to the works of studio heads Pam Abdy and Mike De Lucca, who helped bring them both to the screen. 

“One Battle” has won plenty of awards and amassed massive amounts of acclaim, but the fact that there is still so much enthusiasm for “Sinners” and the experience people had going to see it in theaters nearly a year after its release is undeniably amazing, not to mention the record number of nominations it earned. Ultimately, it’s still got people talking, and so with that in mind, I’m giving it the edge and saying it’ll win the biggest award of the night.

As for what should’ve been nominated, “Weapons” got a nod for its unforgettable antagonist (Madigan), but didn’t appear elsewhere, which seems a shame, but is indicative of an Academy that’s more receptive to the horror genre with each passing year. Park Chan Wook’s satirical dark comedy “No Other Choice” was rather embarrassingly omitted in all categories. 

However, my pick for what should’ve been represented was the persistently absurd and always delightful reboot of “The Naked Gun” that came out last summer. We are able to enjoy so few comedies on the big screen with our fellow moviegoers anymore, and that one really nailed it with a pair of truly revelatory dips into the river of silliness from actors I didn’t know had it in them (Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson).