Carlos Estevez‘s 2026 season has started in about as rough a fashion as possible, as the Royals closer was charged with six runs (including Dominic Smith‘s walkoff grand slam) in Saturday’s 6-2 loss to the Braves. If the blown save wasn’t painful enough in a figurative sense, Michael Harris II also hit a hard comebacker on Saturday that deflected off Estevez’s left ankle, leaving Estevez with a contusion.
X-rays were negative on Estevez’s ankle, though he was wearing a walking boot in the clubhouse today and is considered day-to-day as the Royals continue to evaluate his health. Kansas City has an off-day Tuesday but then has a game on each of the first 12 days of April, so the right-hander wouldn’t get much benefit from the schedule if a 15-day injured list stint is required to get him fully healed up.
The first order of business is to make sure Estevez is healthy, though manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the Royals could potentially move Estevez out of the closer’s job until he is entirely right. Beyond the ankle issue, Estevez’s velocity has been down both in Spring Training and in his regular season debut.
The decision to make a change at closer “will be more based on what we see, whether that velo is coming,” Quatraro said. “I mean, we’re not averse to putting him in a lower-leverage situation. We feel good about the rest of the options that we have, too. So I’m not going to say he wouldn’t do it, but I also think it would be probably smarter for us to try to build him a little bit in lower leverage first.”
A very hard thrower for most of his career, Estevez’s four-seamer velocity has gone from 97.5mph in 2022 to 97.1mph in 2023, 96.8mph in 2024, and then 95.9mph in 2025. The drop from 2024 to 2025 was the largest and perhaps the most concerning, even though Estevez still ranked within the 76th percentile of all pitchers in velocity in 2025.
On Saturday, however, Estevez averaged 91.2mph on the 15 four-seamers he threw against Atlanta. Even this modest number was up from the 89-90mph Estevez averaged over five Spring Training innings, Rogers noted. Obviously this was just one outing, and even Estevez’s spring work has the caveat of some time missed due to the World Baseball Classic — the reliever threw just one inning of work in one game for the Dominican Republic’s team.
It is also noteworthy that Estevez took a while to ramp up last spring and into the regular season as well, before delivering strong bottom-line numbers (2.45 ERA and 42 saves) in his first year with the Royals. His 4.43 SIERA was almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA, as Estevez benefited from a .234 BABIP to overwrite below-average strikeout and walk rates.
As he entered the final guaranteed season of his two-year, $22MM deal with the Royals, Estevez seemingly still held a firm hold on the closer’s job. Whatever role change could be in mind may just be until Estevez both has his velocity back, and has corrected some mechanical issues Quatraro says the staff has detected.
In terms of fill-in closers, Lucas Erceg might be the most logical candidate to get the call in the ninth inning, or K.C. could adopt more of a committee approach. Erceg, Matt Strahm, Alex Lange, or others could all get some save opportunities as the situation warrants, for however long it takes for Estevez to get on track. Estevez would still get regular usage in his lower-leverage role, as Quatraro said “this is the best practice to get out there in a game. So if we can get him 30 pitches in a game, you know, two innings or something like that to get those reps going and his body moving.”
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