Game threads VII and VIII – Brewers at Royals

Let’s try this again, shall we?

First, here’s what I wrote last night about the expected starters for that game who will both still pitch in today’s first match:

In the series opener, the Royals are going to be relying on a rookie making his first MLB start, but not his first MLB appearance. Michael Wacha is having his start pushed back while dealing with an illness, so Luinder Avila will get the call. Avila made a few appearances out of the bullpen last September and impressed many while he was at it, pitching to a 1.49 ERA in 13 relief appearances. During Spring Training, manager Matt Quatraro indicated that he saw Avila as having front-line starter potential, but most outsiders agreed that if Avila was going to contribute this year, it was going to be out of the bullpen. Craig Brown over at Into the Fountains, though, told me he thought that Avila would be the first starter up. So kudos to him for getting that right. Bailey Falter was added to the IL in a corresponding move after a near-disastrous ninth-inning appearance on Wednesday.

Chad Patrick will get the ball for the Brewers, making his second start of the season. His first start saw him go only 4.1 innings against the White Sox, striking out 4, walking 1, and giving up a run in a no-decision that would become a Brewers win. Patrick is a 27-year-old sophomore who pitched to a 3.53 ERA in his rookie campaign last year. He faced the Royals in his second big league appearance and first start, pitching 4.2 scoreless innings in a game the Brewers won 5-0.

Last year, Patrick threw six pitches, but three are variations of fastballs – a four-seamer, a cutter, and a sinker – which he combined to throw 86.5% of the time. He also mixes in a slider, a slurve, and a changeup, but every kind of fastball gets thrown more than those three pitches combined. In his first start this year, he threw 74 pitches. Six were slurves, two were changeups, and he didn’t throw a single slider. His cutter is a very good pitch, though, getting lots of chases and whiffs despite the lack of variety and the fact that it’s kind of slow for a cutter. Patrick can struggle with the strike zone at times, so the new, (hopefully) patient Royals might have an advantage over him that the free-swingers of last year didn’t.

Now, let’s talk a little about the pitching matchup for game two:

Seth Lugo gets the ball in the nightcap for KC. He was the Cy Young runner-up in 2024 and looked completely cooked following the All-Star Break in 2025. One of the biggest questions about the rotation coming into 2026 was how Lugo would look. And the answer, at least through one start, is: a lot closer to the 2024 guy, which is very good news for the Royals.

The Brewers can unleash a lot of lefties on him, as we’ll see in the first game lineups posted below, so it could be a struggle for him, but if he pitches like he did Sunday in Atlanta, it’s not going to matter that much. He didn’t get a lot of swing and miss but he induced a ton of chases and soft contact. There was also some loud contact, but all of it was to centerfield, which will play in the current Kauffman dimensions.

Brandon Sproat will take the mound for the Brew Crew. Sproat was acquired during the offseason, along with top prospect Jett Williams, when the Brewers decided to maximize the value of last year’s ace, Freddy Peralta. Sproat is a top pitching prospect even after debuting for a few games for the Mets last season and looking fine. However, FanGraphs notes that his changeup delivery changed in 2025 and ruined the pitch. In his first start of the season things went pretty poorly in the Brewers’ sole loss to start the year. He allowed 7 runs in 3 innings on 4 walks, 6 hits, and 3 strikeouts.

Checking in on Sproat’s outing via TJStats shows that all of his pitches were rated highly stuff-wise, but he still couldn’t get any chase or any whiffs. Hopefully the Royals will be able to similarly pick on him, tonight.

The Royals are using the same lineup they had originally planned for last night to start off, so here’s what I wrote about it then:

Carter Jensen continues to ride the pine after oversleeping yesterday. Starling Marte gets his first game action in exactly one week since his last, on Opening Day. Without Carter in the lineup, Jac Caglianone remains bumped up to the fifth spot in the lineup; hopefully, he’ll get some more hits there tonight than he did yesterday afternoon. Nick Loftin gets the start over Jonathan India. Despite Wednesday’s grand slam, India is having a poor start to the season, including popping up fully one-third of the balls he’s put in play. I know it worked against Royce Lewis in the rain, but that’s no way to get a hit.

The Brewers are using six lefties and a switch-hitter in their first lineup. As I noted above, I expect something similar in the evening contest. The Royals have indicated they’ll announce their 27th man between games. Per documents provided to the press, in 22 previous doubleheaders vs. the Brewers, the Royals
have swept 11, split 9, and been swept only twice. Promising history, indeed.