The Royals and Tigers were projected by many models to be the top two teams in the division, but both have stumbled out of the game to a sub-.500 record. The Tigers perhaps hit rock bottom after suffering a four-game sweep at the hands of the Twins, but righted the ship last weekend with a sweep of the Marlins.
Kansas City Royals (7-9) vs. Detroit Tigers (7-9) at Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Royals: 3.38 runs scored/game (28th in MLB), 4.06 runs allowed/game (10th)
Tigers: 4.38 runs scored/game (14th), 3.75 runs allowed/game (7th)
Only two teams have hit fewer home runs than the Tigers, and only one team has stolen fewer bases. Top rookie Kevin McGonigle has been as advertised, with hits in 12 of his 15 starts, with four multi-hit games. Catcher Dillon Dingler came on at the end of last year, hitting .296/.355/.441 in the second half. Colt Keith hit .163/.217/.186 against left-handers last year. Zack McKinstry was an All-Star last year, hitting .323/.397/.594 at home.
Kerry Carpenter is a career .219/.284/.313 in 37 games against the Royals. Spencer Torkelson is 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in his career against Cole Ragans. Gleyber Torres is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts against Kris Bubic.
Framber Valdez was the big off-season signing for the Tigers, and the two-time All-Star has the fifth-most fWAR by a starting pitcher since 2022. He throws a sinker half the time, inducing a groundball rate of 59 percent last year. Bobby Witt Jr. is 2-for-20 in his career against Valdez with five strikeouts.
Jack Flaherty had a terrific 2024 with a 3.17 ERA, but regressed last year, tying for the league-lead in losses with a 4.64 ERA. Only five pitchers in baseball have issued more walks than Flaherty this year. He has a 2.78 ERA in six career starts against the Royals.
Keider Montero has been fantastic filling in for an injured Justin Verlander, tossing six shutout innings in a win over the Marlins his last time out. He had a 3.72 ERA in 12 starts last year, but a 5.51 ERA in eight relief appearances. Opponents hit .308 against his slider last year.
Kenley Jansen has 478 career saves, although he is just two-for-three in save opportunities this year. The 38-year-old finished strong last year with a 1.48 ERA in the second half. Will Vest had a 58 percent groundball rate last year, ninth-highest among relievers. Drew Anderson had a 2.27 ERA as a starter last year in the Korean Baseball Organization. The Tigers re-signed Kyle Finnegan after he posted a 1.50 ERA in 16 games following a trade from the Nationals at the deadline last summer.
Fangraphs still has the Tigers with a 34 percent chance of winning the division, with the Royals at 22 percent, and the Twins (23 percent) and Guardians (19 percent) very much in the conversation. This could be a very competitive division, but to stay in it, the Royal will need to better against the Tigers than last year, when they dropped 9 of 13 in head-to-head matchups.
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