Game thread XLV – Royals at Cardinals

The last time we gathered here for one of my recaps, the Royals had just won the second of two straight against the Detroit Tigers. It was the third straight weekend the Royals had won the first games of a weekend series, and the first two weekends had ended in a sweep. Things were looking very, very bright.

Now we come together, and the Royals have lost four in a row. They’ve gone from second place in the AL Central and holding a Wild Card Spot to the bottom of the AL Central and 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. The vibes are bad. Battlefield Earth bad. Game of Thrones finale bad.

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Madame Web bad.

I’m not here to tell you that the vibes aren’t or shouldn’t be bad. What I am here to tell you is that, somehow, the Royals are fewer than 3 wins from a playoff spot in the middle – or maybe the end! – of their second set of awful vibes in the first third of the season. It’s less that the Royals need to immediately trade every moderately valuable player and more that we all need to just take a dang break. Maybe you don’t want to take a break from baseball. Good news! It’s Rivalry Weekend in baseball, which means every game except the national ones is available for free on MLB.TV this weekend. If you absolutely must watch some baseball but you find the Royals are ruining your mood, go watch any other team. They’ll be here when you’re ready to come back. Maybe they’ll even be playing better again.

Some of us, of course, get paid to watch this team. And, yeah, sometimes that seems like a cheat code. But weeks like this week show why it’s not just easy money. I’m not asking for any sympathy for y’all, just saying, if you’ve ever thought about how dumb it is that I get paid even the small amount I get paid to watch baseball, remember I’ve got to watch the truly awful baseball, too.

OK. On to the game.

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Michael Wacha will take the mound. He was also the pitcher the last time the Royals won, so that feels like a good omen. And, frankly, he’s been fantastic this year. He’s the seventh-most valuable pitcher in the AL by bWAR. (fWAR doesn’t like him as well because he’s not getting strikeouts. Still, he, Seth Lugo, and Kris Bubic are all top-25 in AL fWAR.) Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, but having 2026 Michael Wacha on the mound feels like a good thing.

The Cardinals will counter with, thankfully, a right-hander in Dustin May. May was a top—20-in-MLB prospect when he debuted in 2019, but he has never gotten anywhere near that hype. He has been hurt a lot and, beginning last year, he hasn’t been remotely effective. That has continued into this season. He faced the Royals twice last year, once with the Dodgers and once with the Red Sox. He gave up a total of 7 runs in 7.2 innings. He lost the one with the Red Sox, though Noah Cameron had a poor game against the Dodgers, and the Royals lost that one 5-4. If the Royals lose tonight, it seems unlikely to be because Dustin May finally started getting them out.

Lineups

The Royals are putting the usual vRHP lineup. I don’t have anything to say about it I haven’t said before. And, honestly, as much as Sal shouldn’t be in the cleanup spot, the Royals have won plenty of games with him in that spot this year when their pitchers have otherwise done their jobs. So I guess it doesn’t matter enough to have a cow about.