Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees have dropped six of their last 10 games, falling 4.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.
So, they’re looking to right the ship on Memorial Day in a series opener against the Kansas City Royals this afternoon. Kansas City is set as a home underdog in this matchup, but it did win a weekend series against the Seattle Mariners.
Still, Bobby Witt Jr. and Co. are just 22-31 this season and have a 3-7 record over their last 10 games.
On Monday, Yankees righty Will Warren (3.61 ERA) takes the mound against Kansas City’s Michael Wacha (2.70 ERA), who has gotten off to a strong start in 2026.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game, as New York is favored to win but set at +126 to cover the run line (-1.5) in this matchup.
Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this American League battle on Monday afternoon.
Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Run Line
- Yankees -1.5 (+121)
- Royals +1.5 (-147)
Moneyline
- Yankees: -126
- Royals: +105
Total
Yankees vs. Royals Probable Pitchers
- New York: Will Warren (6-1, 3.61 ERA)
- Kansas City: Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.70 ERA)
Yankees vs. Royals How to Watch
- Date: Monday, May 25
- Time: 3:40 p.m. EST
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Yankees record: 31-22
- Royals record: 22-31
Yankees vs. Royals Best MLB Prop Bets
Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet
- Aaron Judge 2+ Strikeouts (+170)
If you’re looking for a long shot prop bet, I think fading Aaron Judge has to be in consideration. Judge is hitting just .196 over the last two weeks, striking out 14 times in 12 games.
On Monday, he has a tough matchup with Wacha, who has dominated him in his career. Judge is just 4-for-23 (.174) against Wacha with a whopping 12 strikeouts. This season, Wacha hasn’t been an elite strikeout pitcher, punching out 55 batters in over 63 innings of work.
Still, given Judge’s struggles against him – and as of late against anyone – I think this prop is worth a look at this price (+170) on Monday afternoon.
Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
I think this pitching matchup actually sets up pretty well for a low-scoring game, especially since the Royals are just 25th in MLB in runs scored this season.
Warren has an expected ERA of 3.13, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his 10 outings in the 2026 season.
Wacha, who has an expected ERA of 3.85, has given up three or fewer earned runs in eight of his 10 games in the 2026 campaign. So, both of these starters are more than capable of keeping these offenses in check early, and the New York offense has struggled as of late, scoring five or fewer runs in five straight games.
The Yankees and Rays are also two of the best UNDER teams in MLB, as they’ve both hit it in over 56 percent of their games. With this total creeping up to nine, I think the UNDER is a smart play on Memorial Day.
Pick: UNDER 9 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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