Updated:
May 25, 2026 , 02:04 PM ET
• 4 min read
Will Warren outduels Michael Wacha on Memorial Day.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees pitcher Will Warren (29) throws during the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles.
The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals get together for an early-week series starting this afternoon.
This series has intrigue, and this pitching matchup between two arms that have overperformed their underlying metrics is no exception.
My Yankees vs. Royals predictions see the Bombers getting the best of the hosts in this spot. Read all about it in my MLB picks for Monday, May 25, and don’t miss first pitch at 3:40 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Who will win Yankees vs Royals today: Yankees moneyline (-140)
Kansas City Royals arm Michael Wacha is the perfect example of “does nothing great but does mostly everything well.” That’s typically a good quality for a starter, but it’s also why his expected ERA sits over a full run higher than his actual mark, screaming negative regression.
A below-average barrel rate (8.2%) and hard-hit rate (39%) are troubling against the team that ranks first in baseball in both categories.
When these two met in the Bronx in April, two of the three hardest-hit balls by New York Yankees hitters came off Wacha and resulted in unlucky line-outs. Play to -170.
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Yankees vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9 (-110)
This is a touch high.
I haven’t been thrilled about backing Warren this year, but his 86th-percentile strikeout rate should play well here against a Royals lineup with limited barrel threats. This means Warren should generate plenty of swing-and-miss.
While I like the Yankees to get after Wacha, the story of the season so far for New York is at play here: There’s still a good amount of easy outs at the bottom of the Yankees lineup. I made the total 8.7; this is not a huge edge but playable nonetheless.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 21-19, +1.56 units
- Over/Under bets: 25-15, +12.34 units
Yankees vs Royals odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -145 | Royals +118
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Royals +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Royals trend
The Yankees have won all 10 of their last 10 head-to-head matchups with Kansas City, covering the -1.5 run line in all but two of those meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Royals.
How to watch Yankees vs Royals and game info
| Location | Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, May 25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (6-1, 3.61 ERA) |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.70 ERA) |
Yankees vs Royals latest injuries
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