Why you can’t count out the Royals — even if you can’t count on them, either

When Houston took a 6-2 lead into the eighth inning of Game 4 of the 2015 American League Division Series, you may recall, the Royals had a 1.6% chance of salvaging the game and avoiding elimination.

And while we hadn’t assumed anything at The Star, we definitely were preparing for the most logical outcome through a mid-game discussion about who was going to write what from Houston.

Per that treasured memo, here’s what we were thinking about and starting to prepare to write before one of the most improbable comebacks in MLB postseason history unfurled — and morphed into the Royals winning their first World Series since 1985.

Then-Star columnist Sam Mellinger, now Royals vice-president of communications, had this angle:

“Best season in 35 years for Royals won’t be remembered for a damn after this meltdown in Houston.”

As for me:

“Did the way the Royals approached September lead to their offensive struggles in the ALDS: And did the all-out pursuit of players like (Johnny) Cueto after All-Star break put all the focus on October too soon and throw off their chemistry.”

And then some. But you get the idea.

In some ways this memo was front of mind because Sam the other day reminded me of the term “make fun of glove thing” — a reference to Cueto’s complaints about the placement of catcher Salvador Perez’s targets that I believe was one of the few notes on his screen before everything changed.

But there’s another more timely and pertinent reason:

It’s a great reminder that it ain’t over until it’s over and that baseball tends to be particularly confounding in this way.

While the very nature of a 162-game marathon season is constant flux, an ever-swinging pendulum of slumps and breakthroughs, we can’t help but make rash and sweeping judgments through each phase and glimpse.

Plenty of times, though, they’re better held in check.

So in the couple weeks since I was thinking about how this Royals season has become a farce and that there was no hope in sight and something has to give, I figured I’d summon a Ned Yost-ism to wait a week …

And then maybe another week.

As it happens for the time being, anyway, it was worth the wait.

Since plummeting to 22-37 on May 31 with a sixth straight loss marked by being outscored 31-2 through three of those, the Royals will return to Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday trending quite the other way.

Despite nearly bungling a five-run ninth-inning lead before fending off Minnesota 6-5 on Sunday, they have won five of their last seven games to at least stop the free-fall.

Enough so that as of Sunday evening they’re only 5.5 games out of the last American League wild-card berth.

Yes, that’s a somewhat meaningless place to be at this time of year. And, sure, this recent streak could be just another fleeting dose of fool’s gold: Who’s to say it’s any more revealing than all the bad baseball we’ve seen?

But it also suggests that a season seemingly on the brink of doom at least remains in play.

Precarious and fraught as believing might seem when it comes to a team that’s dramatically disappointed through most of the first 67 games (27-39) and is 9.5 games back in the American League Central race.

So this is more about merely considering some semblance of hope than great conviction about where this is going.

But, shoot, it also seems something more than the Dumb and Dumber “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” bit.

Suddenly, willingness to adapt and tweak the batting order seems to be a boost, guys like Vinnie Pasquantino are heating up and the Royals seem to be in “find a way” mode.

They’re also getting timely hitting with players contributing from all over the place — like Starling Marte hitting a three-run homer Sunday — or even practically out of nowhere.

Case in point was veteran utility man Josh Rojas being called up Thursday from Triple A Omaha while playing a game in Ohio, missing his first flight and arriving in Minneapolis well after the game had started.

But with some help from a rain delay, Rojas arrived in time to suit up and smack a bases-loaded pinch single for the game-winning hit in the 8-6 victory.

If that doesn’t herald some momentous turn for the Royals, it signaled if nothing else a temporary reprieve in fortune for a team that largely has failed to make its own luck — it remains among the worst in baseball when it comes to batting with runners in scoring position — and has been beset with injuries to key pitchers Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic and Carlos Estevez.

The timetable for those returns remains unclear, and the Royals continue to have plenty of other issues to navigate.

Not the least of those is a bullpen that has descended into one of the last-reliable in baseball.

Moreover, this team has scored the third-fewest runs in baseball (258/3.9 a game), so it’s hard to make too much of those 5.4 runs they’ve averaged over the last week.

So … buyer beware, hope at your own risk and know that the odds are against a momentous turn ahead.

Maybe they’ll get some serious traction and momentum and key parts back … and maybe not.

But it’s a lot more interesting to wonder than assume, isn’t it?

Which is something like another Yost-ism he took to saying down the stretch in 2014 as the Royals were seeking their first playoff berth since 1985.

“Nobody knows,” he liked to say, “what’s going to happen.”

Even when we think we do.