A little over a week has passed since Blake Mitchell almost single-handedly pounded Quad Cities, the Kansas City Royals’ High-A affiliate, past Midwest League rival Cedar Rapids. Mitchell slammed two homers and drove in seven runs as the River Bandits won 11-6 on May 29.
Just a night later, though, Mitchell went 0-for-4 and struck out three times. He fanned twice in another hitless, four at-bat night in the Bandits’ next game.
In a sense, it’s been that kind of season — and career —for Mitchell, an obviously gifted young catcher the Royals hope someday vindicates the big gamble they took on him in the 2023 amateur draft, when they spent the eighth overall pick to get the fresh-out-of-high-school catcher. The risky move defied the conventional wisdom that prep catchers aren’t good high draft choices.
Whether Mitchell has, or will, prove the Royals’ dice roll was worth it remains to be seen. His minor league numbers reflect alluring tendencies to get on base and hit home runs, but also striking statistical inconsistencies. The question for Mitchell and the franchise is thus this: Will he make it?
Royals Prospect Blake Mitchell is a Statistical Paradox
That Mitchell is talented is indisputable. Even the Royals, with their checkered draft history, don’t pick obvious clunkers in the first round. Only later, after they fail for reasons often unrelated to talent, are high picks declared sunk costs. And while Mitchell doesn’t seem destined for such a fate, his hasn’t been a trouble-free progression through the Kansas City farm system.
One concern is his conspicuously low batting average. Including an ugly .143 in the post-draft 2023 Arizona Complex League, and the .207 he was hitting through Thursday, he entered Friday batting just .220 for his career. Batting average’s importance has diminished, but .220 for a first-rounder in his third full professional season is a red flag.
Mitchell also strikes out too much — 34.8% of the time this season (a number probably explained in no small part by a 63.9 Z-Swing%), and 32.9% last year for his first full High-A campaign, although a broken hamate bone sidelined him for all but 48 games.
Mitchell’s subpar Whiff rates (44.2% through Thursday this season, 35.5 last year, and 36% in 2024) and this season’s third-percentile Z-Contact mark (67%) aren’t good at all.
But Mitchell’s overall professional performance is far from negative. Take, for example, his 131 wRC+ through Thursday, which compares favorably with his 111 last season and his 131 split between Columbia and Quad Cities the year before. Elite walk rates drive his excellent OBP marks of .419 this year, .390 in 2025, and .368 in 2024. His OPS numbers, which stood at .872 entering Friday, and were .710 for his injury-shortened 2025 campaign and .793 the year before, leave little room for criticism.
And power he has. Mitchell homered for the 10th time this season on Wednesday, putting him well on the path to better the career-high 18 he hit in 2024. He’s also a competent baserunner with 50 steals since turning pro. Not bad for a catcher.
The unusually strong-armed Mitchell can also be decent behind the plate. He caught 31% of would-be base stealers in High-A last season.
Is There a Realistic Path to the Royals for Blake Mitchell?
Not this season, and probably not next unless Salvador Perez foregoes the final year of his newest contract and retires. Mitchell has, after all, not faced Triple-A pitching, and won’t until late this year at the earliest. And even then, he’ll likely require a full season at that level before moving up to the majors.
What now seems an inevitable arrival in the big leagues won’t be without some uncertainty, though, especially if it comes with the Royals. He may be too gifted to be a part-time backup, which means the Royals might need to prepare Carter Jensen for another position — or do the same with Mitchell.
Or is a trade possible? Plenty of teams would be interested in Mitchell, and he might net a nice return.
What Kansas City ultimately does with Mitchell is hard to predict. But they and he have plenty of time — he’s only 21, which leaves a lot of room and time for KC’s top 2023 draft pick to refine and blossom.
Interested in learning more about the Kansas City Royals’ top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source royalskeep.com ’
