I need to change my baseball strategy. I’ve struggled over the past few days, and looking back on my history of baseball betting, I tend to hit slumps around the All-Star Game. I know I usually step back a bit at the trade deadline because you never know who is in the right mental space or going to be traded. Perhaps I need to make an adjustment or go back to guys I’ve relied on. Maybe for now, the best advice is to fade me after a few tough days.
The Kansas City Royals are among the top four or five teams in the league that wish it could get a turnaround in the second half of the season. It is not too late for the Royals to make a push for their division. Entering today, they are in last place of the division, but just eight games back. They have been brutal on the road this season, going just 15-25, but they did win two of the first three games in this series with one of the best teams in baseball. Part of what the Royals need is to get their pitching staff on track.
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Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on April 20, 2026. (Denny Medley/Imagn Images)
They have gotten some support from a couple of guys in the staff, and Seth Lugo, today’s starter, has been reliable as usual for them. Lugo is 3-4 for the season with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He is basically the same starter on the road as he is at home this season. He has been worse in day starts than night starts, but he has half as many during day games as he does night games. Lugo is either going to give up almost nothing or a lot of runs. He has made 15 starts. In three of them, he has allowed five or more runs. In 10 of them, he has allowed two or fewer. Rays hitters are batting .268 against Lugo in their careers.
The Tampa Bay Rays keep finding ways to win. They started the season very hot, and they ran their record to 34-15 on May 22. Since that date, they have gone just 10-18. Perhaps the team is slowing down? Is there some sort of injury that hurt them significantly? It doesn’t really seem like it. Some people will say you will win a third of your games, you’ll lose a third of your games, and the other third is what truly determines your season. Maybe this is just the losing stretch of their season.
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is congratulated by teammates after scoring a run against the Athletics in the first inning at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, Calif., on April 29, 2026. (Cary Edmondson/Imagn Images)
One of the things that the Rays have done over the past few years is build a reliable pitching staff. Today, they turn to a reliever, Casey Legumina, to open the game for them. He has not pitched in this series, and actually hasn’t appeared since June 17, so he should be rested enough to give them a reasonable number of innings if they want. I’d guess he will be there for somewhere around three innings of work. The Rays don’t really need a bullpen game here, but they tend to use them just to give their starters an extra day.
I was browsing the player props quite a bit for this game, but I don’t see a ton that stand out. Lugo is listed at 17.5 outs recorded for today, and that basically says, will he pitch six or fewer innings? He is hitting that number 66% of the time this season, so I like that over. However, the Rays are a good team and have hit him well, so it could be tough.
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A general view of Tropicana Field during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays on May 18, 2026, in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Alex Zadorozny/MLB Photos)
I think the Royals win this game, though, at least through five innings. Bullpen games are tough on opponents, but Lugo is a reliable pitcher. If there is anyone from the rotation to depend on from the Royals, it would be Lugo. They are playing decent baseball at the moment as well. Give me the Royals through five at +114.
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