This season has not gone to plan for the Royals after expectations of reaching the playoffs and potentially winning the AL Central after an interesting offseason. Needing to get something offensively from the outfield, they swung a deal to land Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears for Angel Zerpa. They hoped he would be one answer for the outfield, but halfway through the year, he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Let’s dive into his 2026 season to see where he has fallen short.
Starting with the basic numbers, Collins is slashing .230/.339/.323 for an OPS of .663. For a quick comparison, he slashed .263/.368/.411 for an OPS of .779 in 2025. Back to 2026, his wRC+ sits at 90, which is 32 points below his 2025 tally of 122. Along with that, his total fWAR sits at -0.2 on the year so far. So what changed from last year to this year? Let’s dive a tad deeper.
The 2025 Profile is Still There, but Regression Elsewhere causes Issues
Quick, guess which season these percentiles are for Isaac Collins. If you said 2025, you would be correct, but the 2026 percentiles are very similar to this (shown below).
Not much changed in his profile from last season, with the only stark decline being in LA sweet-spot% and an increase in squared-up%. So, the base profile hasn’t changed a lot, but why is he still not living up to expectations? Part of the answer lies in his run value chart.
In his two seasons, Collins has not been the greatest against fastballs, specifically 4-seam and sinkers. He was -2 against 4-seam fastballs last season and -3 this year, while against sinkers, he was -3 last year to 0 this season. Going a tad deeper into those pitches specifically, his struggles lie solely on 4-seam fastballs.
Across 2025 and 2026, Collins is batting around .236 on 4-seamers and slugging them around a .310 clip. On sinkers, he is hitting them at a .286 clip while slugging them around a .434 clip. We have left out one fastball, though, the cutter. In 2025, he had a run value of 6 against cut fastballs and this year he has a run value of 0, which is the second biggest regression in his run value chart. He hit an absurd .579 and slugged 1.000 on cutters last season and this year he is hitting .250 and slugging .313, so regression was expected.
Collins has been solid against sliders and sweepers this season, with values of 2 and 3, respectively, but he has been terrible against the curveball. The run value sits at -2, but he is hitting .083 and slugging .083 on curves this season. He is also struggling against changeups as he is hitting. 143 and slugging it at a .171 clip. Both of these are regressions from last season, but the curveball regression is really bad, as he slugged them at a .552 in 2025.
Outside of the run value chart, Collins’ profile doesn’t see much change in his plate discipline numbers, batted ball profile, or in his savant percentiles.
Bat Tracking, Splits, and Luck
If nothing in the profiles is significantly different, then let’s dive a touch deeper into his bat tracking numbers. As noted in his savant percentiles, he is squaring up the ball better this season, and his bat speed is increasing. There also isn’t a significant difference in the numbers between being a lefty or righty. The only issue in his bat tracking lies in his ideal attack angle rate, which lies at 37.0% on the year, and that isn’t as much of an issue either given it is similar to his 2025 numbers.
The bat tracking doesn’t give us much to work with to parse his struggles, so let’s get into his splits. For starters, he is hitting well at home with a 118 wRC+ and a .792 OPS. On the road, however, he has a wRC+ of 60 and an OPS of .538. That describes a lot of Royals this season, so let’s go a little deeper in the splits.
As a switch-hitter, Collins is hitting righties at a league-average rate of 101 wRC+, which is helped a ton by his 15.9% walk rate. Against southpaws, he has a wRC+ of 66 with a .598 OPS. For switch hitters, there is typically a side they struggle more against, but this is not ideal. Looking at his slash lines, there isn’t much difference besides the OBP against righties. He is slashing .235/.367/.327 against RHP and slashing .220/.281/.317 against LHP.
There are some positives to take away from his splits, though. As the year progresses, he is slowly getting better. He started the year with a wRC+ of 84, then in May it rose to 90, and in June it rose again to 94. In June specifically, he is hitting .251, which is nearly 40 points higher than the first two months of the year.
The splits tell a good chunk of the story for this season, but one of the last things to discuss is Lady Luck. Collins truly isn’t getting unlucky with his .302 BABIP, even if it is 20 points below his 2025 BABIP. Now, let’s get into the truly negative parts of 2026 for him.
The Power and Fielding
While he isn’t a prolific power threat, Collins is having issues generating power in 2026. His ISO currently stands at .094, which is a stark dip from last season’s .149. He only has 16 extra base hits on the year, so far with 13 doubles and three home runs. Again, he isn’t a prolific power threat, he is a 5’8 188 lb outfielder, but it feels like if he was at his .149 ISO clip it wouldn’t be an issue.
Now, for the worst part of his game this season, the fielding. To say Collins has struggled adjusting to Kauffman is an understatement. As a left fielder, he has accrued a staggering -6 DRS, -4 OAA, and -5 FRV. That is not good, to say the least. In 2025, he was a serviceable to slightly above average LF with a -1 DRS, 5 OAA, and 2 FRV.
Conclusion
This whole piece could come off as nitpicking a guy who never projected to be much at the Major League level, which is sort of the case, but the expectations of Collins were lofty after a good rookie season. A good quote from Michael Baumann of Fangraphs perfectly encapsulates Collins as a player.
“Collins is elite in one aspect of hitting: strike zone judgment. I don’t know if he’s even good at any other part of the offensive game. But he’s been average enough everywhere else to make his one standout skill, well, stand out.”
He is an on-base machine, and if he is close to average everywhere else, he stands out as a solid plus player. It is just that with the Royals, the on-base is doing all the heavy lifting so far, and the expectations coming into the year were high on him. In a borderline lost season, a positive by the end of it could be Collins repeating his 2025 season and the Royals having a key piece until 2031.
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