The New York Mets picked up a huge win over the Atlanta Braves on Monday to split a four-game set, and they have a quick turnaround on Tuesday with the Kansas City Royals coming to town.
Kansas City and New York are both in dead last in their respective divisions, posting some ghastly run differentials. The Mets are minus-60 in the 2026 season while the Royals are minus-71.
Seth Lugo – a former Met – is on the mound on Tuesday for Kansas City. He enters this start with a 4.20 ERA, but some of his expected stats suggest that regression is coming over the second half of the season.
New York has yet to announce a starter for Tuesday’s matchup, but I still have a player prop and a game pick for bettors to consider in this series opener.
Royals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Run Line
- Royals +1.5 (+168)
- Mets -1.5 (+139)
Moneyline
Total
- 8.5 (Over -110/Under -109)
Royals vs. Mets Probable Pitchers
- Kansas City: Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.20 ERA)
- New York: TBA
Royals vs. Mets How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, July 7
- Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
- Venue: Citi Field
- How to Watch (TV): Royals.TV/SNY
- Royals record: 37-54
- Mets record: 38-53
Royals vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets
Mets Best MLB Prop Bet
- Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+340)
Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Soto is worth a look to go deep:
New York Mets star Juan Soto is having a strong 2026 season, hitting .301 with 19 home runs even though the Mets have been one of the most disappointing teams in MLB.
Soto has dominated right-handed pitching – he’s hitting .302 with a 1.047 OPS – which makes him an intriguing target against Kansas City Royals right Seth Lugo. A former Met, Lugo has a 4.20 ERA this season and has given up 12 home runs in 17 appearances.
While Soto hasn’t been elite against Lugo – he’s 4-for-16 with one home run – the Mets star has homered twice in the last week, hitting .300 during that stretch.
This is a pretty solid price for Soto as well, as he’s often shorter than 3/1 to go deep. Once Lugo exits, Soto will still be in a good spot to go deep, as the Royals are 29th in bullpen ERA (5.21) and have allowed 51 homers in the 2026 season.
Royals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Can the Mets keep things rolling and win a third game in a row?
This is a pretty favorable matchup against Lugo and the Royals, who are 12 games under .500 on the road this season.
New York’s offense has been a major issue this season – the Mets are 27th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) – but the Royals haven’t been much better. They rank 21st in wRC+, 20th in runs scored and 20th in OPS.
With Lugo on the mound, I can’t get behind Kansas City, which has dropped 10 of his 17 outings. Lugo’s advanced numbers are awful this season, and his actual ERA has gone from 3.55 to 4.20 since June 1.
Here’s a quick look at where Lugo ranks in some of the key advanced metrics:
- Expected ERA: 5.34 (13th percentile)
- Expected BAA: .281 (8th percentile)
- Average Exit Velocity Against: 90.6 (11th percentile)
- Whiff Percentage: 18.2% (5th percentile)
- Hard-Hit Percentage: 43.1% (20th percentile)
- Barrel Percentage: 10.1% (18th percentile)
Even New York’s offense should be able to take advantage on Tuesday, and the Mets did score 17 runs over their final two games against the Braves. I’ll back them at home in this series opener.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-156 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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‘ The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties ’
‘ Some details of this article were extracted from the following source www.si.com ’
