There’s not really much point in talking to team sources about Witt’s talent. What are they going to say? Instead, we mostly talked about his contract, and whether it should push him down the list a bit. I tried to model it to get a sense of how much of a negative to assign it in my head, but truthfully, I struggled to put a value on it. If you think that the highest AAV he could realistically achieve when getting a new deal at age 31 is $40 or $45 million, the odds of an opt-out aren’t that high, and it won’t cost you that much to renegotiate. If you think that the top end of the salary range has been permanently expanded by the Soto and Tucker deals, it’s a more pressing concern. But even if you treat Witt as being on a four-year deal, he projects as the best player in baseball for those four years. I’m also not particularly concerned with the downside of him declining and then accepting the option; hitters don’t have the same career-altering injury risk that pitchers do, so the odds of taking a huge L on the deal are meaningfully lower.
I know that talking about economics in a baseball article isn’t that exciting, but it’s worth dwelling on the contract in Witt’s case. That’s because there aren’t really any other negatives to be had here. Witt is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
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