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All signs point to Best Drama Series being a two-horse race, but which show is in the lead depends on whom you ask.<\/p>\n
From the outset of the For Your Consideration campaigns, Apple TV+\u2019s Severance<\/em> ran the category like a highly hands-on floor manager. The series had been off the air for three years \u2014 thanks in part to a shutdown for dual strikes in 2023 \u2014 and when viewers returned to Macrodata Refinement and the never-ending halls of Lumon Industries, they were treated to a second season that lived up to the promise of the first.<\/p>\n More from Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n And the Emmys responded in kind.<\/p>\n Severance filed away more nominations than any other series this year: 27 in all, up from 14 in its debut season. The haul included nods for leads Adam Scott<\/strong> and Britt Lower<\/strong> \u2014 as the star-crossed innie lovers Mark S. and Helly R. \u2014 as well as supporting performance nominations for Zach Cherry<\/strong>, Tramell Tillman<\/strong>, John Turturro<\/strong>, and Patricia Arquette<\/strong>.<\/p>\n After nominations, the red carpet appeared to be rolled out for Severance<\/em> to take the stage at the end of the night and claim Best Drama Series. The show\u2019s combined odds on Gold Derby put it firmly in the lead to do so without much competition in the rearview.<\/p>\n But a dive into the numbers reveals a schism between our experts (comprising TV critics, journalists, and awards pundits) and our users. The users are overwhelmingly backing Severance<\/em>; the experts, who have a historically better track record at predicting Emmy outcomes, are picking The Pitt<\/em>.<\/p>\n The hype surrounding the reteaming of ER<\/em> alums executive producer John Wells<\/strong> and star Noah Wyle<\/strong> promised nothing less than a return to the glory days of network TV dramas. And somehow, The Pitt<\/em> delivered. Its first season scored 13 nominations, tying it with, The Bear<\/em> and leading Limited Series contender Adolescence<\/em>. In addition to a Lead Drama Actor nomination for Wyle (which he\u2019s highly favored to win), the series earned two additional acting noms: one for Supporting Drama Actress for Katherine LaNasa<\/strong> and one in Guest Drama Actor for Shawn Hatosy <\/strong>for his work in the dramatic season finale.<\/p>\n Digging deeper, there\u2019s data both series can hang their hopes on. Severance<\/em>\u2019s sheer volume of nominations shows widespread industry support, from the actors (who constitute the largest voting bloc) to the artisans (where The Pitt <\/em>did not fare as well). And here\u2019s a stat that\u2019s hard to ignore: Over the past 10 years, the drama with the most nominations has won the series Emmy 90 percent of the time. But before you select Severance<\/em> for the office pool, consider this: there\u2019s one bellwether category that The Pitt<\/em> is leading: casting. Over the past decade, Best Drama Casting and Best Drama Series have matched up seven times.<\/p>\n The drama race could be boiled down to competing modes of storytelling on TV. Severance<\/em>, while a wonderfully bizarre creation all its own, follows the heavily serialized, deeply mythologized prestige model that arose in the late aughts and early 2010s, making it one of the truest heirs to Lost<\/em>\u2019s obsessive TV crown.<\/p>\n The Pitt<\/em>, however, is a kind of show that serialized dramas replaced, an accessible ensemble medical series that could have headlined NBC\u2019s Thursday night lineup. In her interview with Gold Derby, LaNasa summarized it thusly: \u201cIt\u2019s not just about the dialogue. It\u2019s about this strong arc that everybody had. I felt it was very satisfying to watch and to read. Everything kind of wraps onto itself, nothing\u2019s superfluous.\u201d<\/p>\n Severance<\/em> or The Pitt<\/em>? Which one a given voter goes for could come down to which era of great television they came up in.<\/p>\n