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TORONTO \u2014 So many movies have debuted over the past three weeks. So. So. So. Many. Movies.<\/p>\n
Back-to-back film festivals in Venice, Telluride, Colorado, and Toronto are where studios bring their biggest, most prestigious fall titles for splashy world premieres amid a gathering of international press. It can feel a little like being in an antigravity chamber with a very loose door policy: You\u2019re a little high from the adrenaline, there are way too many people in here and it\u2019s impossible to track who\u2019s up and who\u2019s down.<\/p>\n
Some movies immediately stumbled (Luca Guadagnino\u2019s \u201cAfter the Hunt,\u201d<\/a> Edward Berger\u2019s \u201cBallad of a Small Player\u201d). Some bobbled, but are back upright (chiefly, Noah Baumbach\u2019s \u201cJay Kelly,\u201d starring George Clooney, which got a lukewarm reception in Venice and raves out of Telluride). Some defied expectations (\u201cNuremberg,\u201d starring Russell Crowe<\/a>). Others just need a little time to cook and will rise if there\u2019s any justice in this world (Park Chan-wook\u2019s \u201cNo Other Choice\u201d<\/a> and Kaouther Ben Hania\u2019s \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab\u201d<\/a>).<\/p>\n And one rocketed to the top as soon as its closing credits rolled at its Telluride and Toronto premieres: Chlo\u00e9 Zhao\u2019s<\/a> \u201cHamnet.\u201d<\/a> The gorgeously shot late-1500s speculative drama is based on Maggie O\u2019Farrell\u2019s 2020 novel \u201cHamnet: A Novel of the Plague\u201d<\/a> and stars Jessie Buckley<\/a> and Paul Mescal<\/a>. It tells the wrenching story of William Shakespeare\u2019s family and the tragedy that may have inspired \u201cHamlet,\u201d but it is also a universal tale of grief and the transformative power of art.<\/p>\n Still, it\u2019s September. The Oscars are six months away and some anticipated debuts still await. Paul Thomas Anderson\u2019s \u201cOne Battle After Another\u201d<\/a> has been getting raves from the select critics who\u2019ve seen it (Steven Spielberg said he\u2019s watched it three times<\/a>), and it will open in theaters Sept. 26 without bowing at a festival. The New York Film Festival, which begins that same day, will showcase \u201cSpringsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere,\u201d<\/a> as well as the debuts of \u201cAnemone,\u201d<\/a> Daniel Day-Lewis\u2019s first film since 2017\u2019s \u201cPhantom Thread\u201d (directed by his son Ronan), and Bradley Cooper\u2019s third feature, \u201cIs This Thing On?,\u201d<\/a> a divorce comedy starring Will Arnett and Laura Dern.<\/p>\n Then there are the big blockbusters and late-breaking wild cards that could shake up the whole field: \u201cAvatar: Fire and Ash,\u201d<\/a> \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d<\/a> and A24\u2019s \u201cMarty Supreme,\u201d<\/a> starring Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet as a table tennis champion.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a snapshot of the landscape.<\/p>\n The front-runners<\/b><\/p>\n If there\u2019s any takeaway from the fall festivals, it\u2019s that \u201cHamnet\u201d<\/b> could upend early favorite \u201cSinners\u201d<\/b> as this year\u2019s unstoppable juggernaut. Ryan Coogler\u2019s masterful Southern gothic blockbuster<\/a> has held the spot as best picture front-runner since April, and has been hampered only by the fact that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences almost never rewards horror films. September\u2019s festivals have only proven its strength. Right now, its best picture odds are basically tied with \u201cHamnet\u201d (at 91 percent) on the betting site Kalshi \u2014 by no means a scientific measure, but a decent indicator of how, right now, this feels like a two-movie race. (That is, until we see \u201cOne Battle After Another.\u201d<\/b>)<\/p>\n Also on the rise is Joachim Trier\u2019s \u201cSentimental Value.\u201d<\/b> It emerged as the biggest contender from Cannes \u2014 a May festival that has increasingly become an Oscars tastemaker, producing last year\u2019s best picture winner \u201cAnora.\u201d<\/a> A family drama in both English and Swedish, it reteams Trier with his \u201cThe Worst Person In the World\u201d star Renate Reinsve. She plays a stage actress whose estranged filmmaker father (Stellan Skarsgard) asks her to star in a movie he\u2019s written about their family\u2019s deepest unspoken tragedy.<\/p>\n The murky middle<\/b><\/p>\n Netflix had a particularly busy fall festival run. Its heavy hitters \u201cJay Kelly\u201d<\/b> and Guillermo del Toro\u2019s \u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/b><\/a> weren\u2019t received as warmly as expected, so Kathryn Bigelow\u2019s nuclear missile thriller<\/a> \u201cA House of Dynamite\u201d<\/b> and the quiet, moving Sundance hit<\/a> \u201cTrain Dreams\u201d<\/b> now seem to be the company\u2019s best bets. Eva Victor\u2019s Sundance stunner<\/a> \u201cSorry, Baby,\u201d<\/b> a funny, poignant exploration of the aftermath of sexual assault, could ride its groundswell of support all the way to the big day. \u201cBugonia,\u201d<\/b> a violent, gonzo anti-capitalist screed<\/a> that\u2019s the latest team-up between Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone played through the roof at Venice and felt like a return to \u201cPoor Things\u201d popularity. But it also came with chatter that the duo just need to take a break already.<\/p>\n As for the foreign language features, the Palme d\u2019Or winner<\/a>, \u201cIt Was Just an Accident\u201d<\/b> from Iranian dissident director Jafar Panahi, is a real best picture contender, because academy rules<\/a> probably mean it can\u2019t get nominated as an international feature. Appealingly old-fashioned<\/a> \u201cNuremberg,\u201d<\/b> about the six months in 1946 when the world tried Nazi leaders for war crimes, and \u201cRental Family,\u201d<\/b> a whimsical comedy starring Brendan Fraser as an American actor in Tokyo, both got mixed reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival. But they have emotional, crowd-pleasing appeal. Look for them to be far greater hits with audiences and older academy members than they were with critics.<\/p>\n Wild cards<\/b><\/p>\n How the rest of the field shakes out will largely depend on which talked-about Venice films manage to land U.S. distribution, and whether more foreign-language features will crack the top 10, as they increasingly have, ever since the academy diversified its membership. \u201cThe Voice of Hind Rajab,\u201d<\/b> a drama that uses real voice recordings to tell the story of a 6-year-old Palestinian girl trapped in Gaza<\/a> after Israel Defense Forces shot over 300 bullets into her family\u2019s car, could make a powerful case for best picture. And then there\u2019s the broadly praised \u201cNo Other Choice,\u201d<\/b> a darkly funny, full-throttle South Korean unemployment revenge saga from \u201cOldboy\u201d director Park Chan-wook. It\u2019s coming out Christmas Day in the United States, from Neon, the company that launched \u201cParasite\u201d as a phenomenon. But since it was bafflingly shut out of an award at Venice, it faces an uphill battle.<\/p>\n