Don’t adjust your TV sets \u2014 this isn’t a rerun.<\/p>\n
One of the biggest stories heading into September’s Emmy Awards was whether voters would go with their heart (The Pitt<\/em>) or their head (Severance<\/em>) for Best Drama Series. HBO Max’s more traditional medical show ultimately prevailed over Apple TV+’s cutting-edge sci-fi series. Based on the latest prediction data, Gold Derby is predicting a rematch at the 2026 Golden Globes. But will the outcome be the same?<\/p>\n More from Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n Season 1 of The Pitt<\/em> leads our Golden Globe odds<\/a> with a 98 percent chance of receiving a nomination for Best Drama Series. Season 2 of Severance<\/em> is close behind at 96 percent. The other four likely nominees are HBO’s The White Lotus<\/em> (Season 3), HBO’s The Last of Us<\/em> (Season 2), Disney+’s Andor<\/em> (Season 2), and Apple TV+’s The Morning Show<\/em> (Season 4).<\/p>\n Contender<\/p>\n Odds<\/p>\n 1.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Pitt<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Pitt<\/p>\n 97.4%<\/p>\n 2.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Severance<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Severance<\/p>\n 95.6%<\/p>\n 3.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The White Lotus<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The White Lotus<\/p>\n 93.0%<\/p>\n 4.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Last of Us<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Last of Us<\/p>\n 64.2%<\/p>\n 5.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Andor<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Andor<\/p>\n 62.9%<\/p>\n 6.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Morning Show<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Morning Show<\/p>\n 59.3%<\/p>\n We noted the season numbers for each series because up until 2023, the Hollywood Foreign Press was the voting body behind the Globes, and they tended to reward the newest, shiniest shows and putting them on the map. Sometimes, the awards calendar hit just right and the Globes called out dramas like House of the Dragon<\/em> in 2022, The Crown<\/em> in 2016, and Homeland<\/em> in 2011, which all premiered after the Emmy cycle.<\/p>\n Other times, the Emmys get first dibs at honoring a new drama, if that series debuts between January and May, and the Globes play copycat a few months later \u2014 as with Sh\u014dgun<\/em> in 2024 and The Handmaid’s Tale<\/em> in 2017. The Pitt<\/em> would follow the latter pattern, should it ultimately prove triumphant.<\/p>\n Golden Globe voters already had the chance to anoint Severance<\/em> for its first season in 2022, but they went with the aforementioned Game of Thrones<\/em> prequel instead. Does that mean Severance<\/em> is now out of luck because Season 1 lost? Not at all! In fact, two decades ago, a similar thing happened three times in a row.<\/p>\n Nip\/Tuck<\/em> in 2004, Lost<\/em> in 2005, and Grey’s Anatomy<\/em> in 2006 all won Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes for their second seasons after previously losing for their first seasons. However, Severance<\/em> is unique in that it took a three-year break between seasons, whereas Nip\/Tuck<\/em>, Lost<\/em>, and Grey’s Anatomy<\/em> all aired in consecutive years.<\/p>\n Before we continue, we must note that only so much can be inferred from past Globes history; the voting body has completely changed, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association being replaced by the Golden Globe Foundation in 2023. (Note: Penske Media owns Gold Derby, as well as Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Productions in a joint venture with Eldridge.)<\/p>\n Succession<\/em> was snubbed at the Golden Globes for Season 1, but then went on to win Best Drama Series for Seasons 2, 3, and 4. That exactly matches its Emmy trajectory. Elsewhere at the Globes, Breaking Bad<\/em> prevailed on its last hurrah in 2013 despite only getting in for the first time the year prior. In other words, Severance<\/em> is still very much in this race despite its previous loss.<\/p>\n Besides Grey’s Anatomy<\/em> and Nip\/Tuck<\/em>, other medical dramas to win the top Golden Globe include Marcus Welby, M.D.<\/em> (1969) and Medical Center<\/em> (1970). But the hugely popular ER<\/em> never won Best Drama Series, and holds the record for the most nominations in the category (seven) without a Globe win.<\/p>\n See Gold Derby’s prior story about why The Pitt<\/em> wouldn’t exist without ER<\/em><\/a><\/p>\nDrama Series<\/h3>\n
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