{"id":2102786,"date":"2025-10-20T01:08:48","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T01:08:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/?p=2102786"},"modified":"2025-10-20T01:08:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T01:08:48","slug":"game-over-agi-is-not-imminent-and-llms-are-not-the-royal-road-to-getting-there","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/game-over-agi-is-not-imminent-and-llms-are-not-the-royal-road-to-getting-there\/","title":{"rendered":"Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there."},"content":{"rendered":"

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First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have fallen apart. The last few months have been devastating:<\/p>\n

\u2022 <\/span>June, 2025<\/strong>: <\/span>the Apple reasoning paper <\/span>confirmed that even with \u201creasoning\u201d, LLMs still can\u2019t solve distribution shift<\/a><\/strong>, the core Achille\u2019s heel in neural networks that I have been writing about for nearly 30 years. Several other papers, include the ASU \u201c<\/span>Mirage<\/a>\u201c paper quickly extended this finding.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2022 <\/span>August, 2025:<\/strong> GPT-5 came late and <\/span>fell short<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u2022 <\/span>September, 2025<\/strong>: Turing Award winner Rich Sutton, known best for RL and his \u201cbitter lesson\u201d thanked me for my critiques of LLMs and agreed. Seismic. (And astonishingly gracious!)<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2022 <\/span>October, 2025:<\/strong> Andrej Karpathy, a widely-respected machine learning expert who once ran AI for Tesla and twice worked for OpenAI, just said agents aren\u2019t anywhere close, and that AGI is a decade away.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2022 <\/span>October, 2025<\/strong>: Nobel Laureate and Google DeepMind Sir Demis Hassabis just blew up some wildly overhyped claims from OpenAI\u2019s Sebastien Bubeck about math. Researcher\/Hyperbolic Labs CTO Yuchen Jin explains:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Embarrassing indeed.<\/p>\n

LLMs have their place, but anyone expecting the current paradigm to be close to AGI is delusional.<\/p>\n

Gary Marcus<\/strong> tried to tell you for years that this moment would come for years. Do consider reading his 2020 article <\/span>Next Decade in AI<\/a>, for an alternative strategy that increasingly looks prescient. <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

And please consider joining almost 85,000 others in subscribing to the newsletter that told you so much that has proven true, long before it was fashionable.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2018 The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n

\u2018 Some details of this article were extracted from the following source garymarcus.substack.com \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have fallen apart. The last few months have been devastating: \u2022 June, 2025: the Apple reasoning paper confirmed that even with \u201creasoning\u201d, LLMs still can\u2019t solve distribution shift, the core Achille\u2019s heel in neural networks that I have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2102787,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2102786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-royalty"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Game-over-AGI-is-not-imminent-and-LLMs-are-not.com2Fpublic2Fimages2F308ecb15-04f7-43c2-b928-64c3e.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102786","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2102786"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102786\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2102788,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102786\/revisions\/2102788"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2102787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2102786"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2102786"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2102786"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}