In the 31 years of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, there has never been an instance when a new drama and a new comedy both won the television ensemble races in their first years of eligibility. But The Pitt<\/em> and The Studio<\/em> are hoping to change all that.<\/p>\n HBO Max’s medical drama and Apple TV’s comedy about a Hollywood film studio both recently prevailed at the Emmy Awards, with the former winning five trophies, including Best Drama Series, and the latter claiming a record 13 statuettes, including Best Comedy Series. Now, they are Gold Derby’s frontrunners to win Best Drama Ensemble and Best Comedy Ensemble at the 2026 SAG Awards.<\/p>\n More from Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n Over the past three decades, the guild has had an affinity toward established favorites. (ER<\/em> and Modern Family<\/em> hold the drama and comedy records with four ensemble victories apiece). Only six times before have brand new television shows scored the cast prizes at SAG-AFTRA on their first at-bats. But it’s never happened in the same year.<\/p>\n Dramas that won in their first year of eligibility:<\/p>\n Comedies that won in their first year of eligibility:<\/p>\n 2004: Desperate Housewives<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Note that the SAG Awards eligibility is the calendar year, so traditional broadcast network shows are often eligible for two parts of subsequent seasons. The West Wing<\/em>, Lost<\/em>, This Is Us<\/em>, and Friends<\/em> are examples of programs that didn’t win for the initial parts of their first seasons, but did prevail for the final parts of their first seasons combined with the first parts of their second seasons.<\/p>\n Contender<\/p>\n Odds<\/p>\n 1.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Pitt<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Pitt<\/p>\n 97.3%<\/p>\n 2.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Severance<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Severance<\/p>\n 97.3%<\/p>\n 3.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The White Lotus<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The White Lotus<\/p>\n 96.7%<\/p>\n 4.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Gilded Age<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Gilded Age<\/p>\n 76.7%<\/p>\n 5.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Morning Show<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Morning Show<\/p>\n 65.3%<\/p>\n Based on the current Gold Derby odds, The Pitt<\/em> has slight edge over Severance<\/em> to receive a nomination: 97.3 percent compared to 97 percent. The Pitt<\/em> climbed considerably in the SAG odds after it triumphed at the Emmys in September. The cast is led by Noah Wyle<\/strong> as Dr. Michael “Robby” Robinavitch, a senior attending physician at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Center. Wyle, Katherine LaNasa<\/strong> as Nurse Dana Evans, and Shawn Hatosy<\/strong> as Dr. Jack Abbot all won Emmys for the first season.<\/p>\n Third place is The White Lotus<\/em> at 96.3 percent for its third season set in Thailand. (Two years ago, the show’s Italy installment won the Best Drama Ensemble prize over Season 1 of Severance<\/em>.) The Gilded Age<\/em> is in fourth place with a 76.8 percent chance, while two-time cast nominee The Morning Show<\/em> rounds out the top five at 64.9 percent.<\/p>\n Contender<\/p>\n Odds<\/p>\n 1.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Abbott Elementary<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Abbott Elementary<\/p>\n 97.5%<\/p>\n 2.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Studio<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Studio<\/p>\n 97.2%<\/p>\n 3.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Hacks<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Hacks<\/p>\n 96.0%<\/p>\n 4.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Only Murders in the Building<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Only Murders in the Building<\/p>\n 95.4%<\/p>\n 5.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n The Bear<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The Bear<\/p>\n 83.7%<\/p>\n For Best Comedy Ensemble, the Seth Rogen<\/strong>-led The Studio<\/em> is currently has the second-best odds to land a nomination at 96.9 percent, just behind Abbott Elementary<\/em> at 97.5 percent. The ABC school mockumentary previously won this race for the second half of Season 1 and first half of Season 2. Last month, Rogen and Bryan Cranston<\/strong> won lead and guest Emmys for their respective roles as a new movie studio head and the company’s CEO.<\/p>\n Hacks<\/em> is in third place with 95.7 percent; the HBO Max comedy been nominated three times by the guild, but has yet to win. Last year’s surprise champion, Only Murders in the Building<\/em>, comes in fourth place at 95.4 percent. Then there’s The Bear<\/em>, which claimed victory for Season 2, and now has an 83.7 chance of cooking up another nomination.<\/p>\n The SAG nominations for TV and film will be unveiled on Jan. 7, and the ceremony will be held March 1, just two weeks before the 2026 Oscars.<\/p>\n Best of Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n Sign up for Gold Derby’s Newsletter<\/a>. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, and Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n
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