<\/p>\n
The Phillies made the playoffs in 2025. The Royals nearly did, and certainly hope to play in October in 2026. Teams like that rarely line up on trades, what with both sides aiming to do the same thing and all. But rarely isn\u2019t the same as never. Philadelphia and Kansas City found something they agree on other than their taste in Super Bowl matchups (last year\u2019s every year, naturally), coming together on Friday to swap relievers: Matt Strahm<\/a> is heading to Kansas City in exchange for Jonathan Bowlan<\/a>, as Robert Murray first reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n Trades are all about two teams with mismatched goals. Who would trade a superstar? A team that isn\u2019t competing at the moment and isn\u2019t one or two players away from changing that. Who would let go of a promising outfield prospect? A team that\u2019s set in the outfield and light on the mound. This trade is two playoff contenders trading relievers, so most of those considerations don\u2019t apply. But there\u2019s still a mismatch in goals and resources here; you just have to look a little more closely.<\/p>\n The Phillies bullpen boasts an embarrassment of riches. Jhoan Duran<\/a>, the closer, is one of the best in the business, a lockdown reliever you can set and forget in the ninth inning. Jos\u00e9 Alvarado<\/a> missed most of the 2025 season thanks to a suspension and injury, but he\u2019s an excellent late-inning option in his own right when available, and he should be back at full strength in the upcoming year. It doesn\u2019t stop there; the team recently signed<\/a> Brad Keller<\/a>, who broke out as a dominant single-inning option in 2025. Even without Strahm, that\u2019s a fearsome top trio of relievers, perhaps the best in the majors.<\/p>\n Add him into the mix, and the Philadelphia bullpen was truly preposterous. I think I\u2019d take any of those three over Strahm if I had to choose, but that\u2019s not an obvious call. He\u2019s been spectacular in his three-year stint in Philadelphia, a late-inning ace with spectacular surface and secondary run prevention numbers. He racks up strikeouts. He walks fewer batters than league average. He\u2019s durable; his last IL stint was in 2022. Despite being left-handed, he\u2019s not merely a matchup option; he\u2019s actually been better against righties than lefties in his career.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have too many good relievers\u201d isn\u2019t the worst problem in the world, but make no mistake, inefficient allocation of resources is still a problem. With Alvarado back in the fold and Keller joining the team, Strahm was down to fourth in the hierarchy. In an ideal world, no problem! More good relievers is better than fewer good relievers. But the Phillies live in a world of unlimited wants and limited means. There are many places to improve the team, both now and in the future. There are only so many resources to go around: Teams have limited-if-large budgets, and they only have so many prospects to trade for short-term improvements, only so much playing time and roster spots to dole out. <\/p>\n The Phillies are already pretty much full up on spending; RosterResource has their 2026 payroll narrowly ahead of the Yankees, fourth in baseball. They\u2019re hardly awash in prospects, either; their system is in the bottom half of baseball, and it\u2019s one of the thinnest in the majors, with only nine prospects with a 40+ FV or higher, tied for last with the perpetually-all-in Padres. But they did have one spare resource to bring to bear in the trade market: under-leveraged elite relief innings. Strahm has more on-field value to pretty much every team other than the Phillies, because he\u2019d pitch in more important spots for any team with a worse top of the bullpen.<\/p>\n \n You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member\n <\/p>\n \n It looks like you aren’t yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, just disappointed.\n <\/p>\n \n We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we’d like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.\n <\/p>\n 1. Ad Free viewing! We won’t bug you with this ad, or any other.<\/p>\n 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.<\/p>\n 3. Dark mode and Classic mode!<\/p>\n 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.<\/p>\n 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.<\/p>\n 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn’t sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)<\/p>\n 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.<\/p>\n 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don’t be a victim of FOMO.<\/p>\n 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.<\/p>\n 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!<\/p>\n \n We hope you’ll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we’ve also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn’t want to overdo it.\n <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n The Royals have no shortage of opportunities to offer. Carlos Est\u00e9vez<\/a>, the incumbent closer, will surely get the first crack at the job in 2026, but I\u2019ll be frank, I have a hard time believing he\u2019ll keep producing. His stuff absolutely tanked in 2025; he posted career-low rates across the board in every bat-missing statistic you can imagine, saw his walk rate balloon, and danced his way to good results anyway thanks to a minuscule BABIP allowed and a career-low home run rate. It\u2019s nice work if you can get it, and it\u2019s a little bit easier to succeed that way in cavernous Kauffman Stadium, but there are some flashing warning lights on Est\u00e9vez\u2019s dashboard if nothing else.<\/p>\n For me, Strahm is already the best reliever in Kansas City. But even if you\u2019re an Est\u00e9vez truther, Strahm is at worst the second banana. Lucas Erceg<\/a> and John Schreiber<\/a> are nice middle relievers. I\u2019m curious to see whether Daniel Lynch IV<\/a> can reinvent himself out of the bullpen. Offseason trade acquisition Nick Mears<\/a> is intriguing. But Strahm is better than those guys, and he might even be better in Missouri than he was in Pennsylvania; like Est\u00e9vez, he\u2019s an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he\u2019s headed from a nightmarishly small park to one of the toughest places to hit home runs.<\/p>\n The one downside with Strahm? He\u2019ll be a free agent after the 2026 season. That was a particular bummer for the Phillies, who are overstocked with relievers for 2026 and would prefer to either have help elsewhere on the diamond or bullpen help for the future. It\u2019s less urgent for the Royals, though; they\u2019d obviously prefer a hypothetical elite reliever with tons of years of team control, but one year of Strahm is a vast improvement on zero years of someone else.<\/p>\n The money isn\u2019t a ton in the grand scheme of things. Strahm is due $7.5 million, a bargain for a pitcher of his caliber. Even for penny-pinching Kansas City, it\u2019s no big deal. On the other hand, even financially mighty Philadelphia wouldn\u2019t mind saving some money on its middle relievers; Dave Dombrowski seems to always spend every last dime he has, and the 75 million dimes he just cleared by trading Strahm might go to bringing back J.T. Realmuto<\/a> or improving what currently projects as a thin outfield.<\/p>\n You can call that motivation for the trade \u201cperfect allocation theory.\u201d Ideally, pitchers of Strahm\u2019s caliber all have important late-inning roles, and playoff contenders all have great bullpens. Money goes to the good regulars in important jobs, and rosters just make sense. The major leagues look more optimized with Strahm on the Royals instead of on the Phillies.<\/p>\n Nice as that tidy theory is, it doesn\u2019t give the Phillies a reason to trade Strahm. Sure, it\u2019s inefficient to have a solid player on a good contract in a minor role, but what, they\u2019re going to give that player away for nothing to help general league efficiency? Indeed not. The Phillies got something they dearly lacked in exchange: cheap, controllable relief pitching for the middle of the bullpen.<\/p>\n Bowlan toiled for years in the Royals system as a starter. To be frank, he wasn\u2019t good enough; at a variety of levels, frequently ones he was too old for, he racked up four- and five-handle ERAs across the country, and he scuffled in a few cups of coffee in the big leagues, too. But in 2024, the Royals converted him into a full-time reliever, and in 2025, he broke into the majors for good, throwing 44 1\/3 competent innings (3.86 ERA, 3.97 FIP) to go along with 36 dominant frames in Triple-A.<\/p>\n Bowlan\u2019s arsenal is needlessly complex, a holdover from his starting days. He throws a fastball, usually a four-seamer but with two-seamers sprinkled in for variety, and a tight gyro slider in the mid-80s. He can sweep his slider into a two-planed, slurvy shape, and he also has a mediocre changeup that he can spot off of his fastball against lefties. For the most part, though, he\u2019s fastball\/slider, and I expect the Phillies to lean into that even more as he acclimates to living life one inning at a time.<\/p>\n Our prospect team gave both of Bowlan\u2019s best offerings a 60 grade, indicative of plus, but not overwhelming, stuff. His major league numbers back that up; he missed a lot of bats and struck out just over 25% of the batters he faced. Unlike a lot of fastball\/slider relievers, he seems to have a good handle on his command. He\u2019s probably never going to run elite walk rates, but he was a strike-thrower as a starter, and that trait seems to have carried over into relief.<\/p>\n Guys like Bowlan sometimes turn into guys like Strahm late in their careers. It\u2019s not likely or anything, but I\u2019ll put it this way: PitchingBot assigns a modeled ERA based on stuff and command, and it pegged both Strahm and Bowlan for a 3.91 botERA this season. Stuff+ actually preferred Bowlan\u2019s work to Strahm\u2019s in 2025. There\u2019s something ineffable about pitching that these models can\u2019t capture, no doubt. The effable part, though, sees two very similar relievers.<\/p>\n I wouldn\u2019t feel comfortable plugging Bowlan into a high-leverage role instead of Strahm. That\u2019s because I\u2019m a rational individual who has seen baseball games before. But I also wouldn\u2019t be sad to use Bowlan in a middle-inning role, and he\u2019s both much more economical than Strahm and under team control for much longer. In fact, he\u2019s probably going to be a Phillie for the length of his major league career or until he\u2019s traded or released, whichever comes first. He still hasn\u2019t accrued a year of service time, and he just turned 29; the free agency math doesn\u2019t add up.<\/p>\n That\u2019s the big benefit for the Phillies. Swapping one year of Strahm for many of Bowlan fits the shape of the team more. Likewise, the Royals need good relievers now more than they need decent relievers later, so their side of the deal makes sense, too. This is the kind of trade that both sides will tell themselves they won, and both sides might be right. I like each organization\u2019s position more after making this deal than I did beforehand, which is about as good of a review as you can get.<\/p>\n That would be a good enough place to leave things off, but the Phillies made another small move in conjunction with this one that\u2019s worth covering. They sent minor league outfielder Avery Owusu-Asiedu<\/a> to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Kyle Backhus<\/a>, a lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2025 at age 27.<\/p>\n Per Brendan Gawlowski, Owusu-Asiedu is a classic lottery ticket. He\u2019s big and physical, with exit velocities that would look right at home in the major leagues today and the potential to grow into more. He struggles to get to that power in games thanks to a grooved swing and a voracious strike zone appetite; combine those two, and you get too much chase plus low zone contact rates. Defensively, he\u2019s a fringe option in center who might improve there over time. It\u2019s the kind of profile that really wants one more standout feature: more in-game power, or more command of the zone, or plus defense at a premium position, or even just doing it all at a younger age relative to his competition level.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re looking for the optimistic pitch, it\u2019s that Owusu-Asiedu improved markedly in his second year at Low-A and then didn\u2019t trip over his feet at High-A when he got there. But really, it\u2019s all pretty speculative; 22-year-olds who still haven\u2019t gotten out of A-ball or even cracked double-digit home runs in a season tend not to work out, even if they\u2019re tooled up. You can dream on Owusu-Asiedu turning into a short-side platoon bat with huge power, but you probably shouldn\u2019t count on it, in other words.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not a ton to give up, which makes sense, because Backhus doesn\u2019t profile as a major league reliever at the moment. He\u2019s a sidearming sinker\/slider lefty who sits 90-91 and sweeps his breaking ball in at around 80. It\u2019s a classic LOOGY profile, the kind of pitcher you can expect to give left-handers fits for years to come while being constitutionally incapable of fooling righties.<\/p>\n