<\/p>\n
The Windup Newsletter<\/strong> \u26be | This is The Athletic<\/em>\u2019s MLB<\/a> newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n \u201cWhere do the Red Sox go from here?\u201d To the upper echelon of starting rotations, that\u2019s where. Plus: Ken on the Mets\u2019 odd fit with Kyle Tucker, Nolan Arenado is (finally) on the move and the Royals are tinkering with their park\u2019s dimensions. I\u2019m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal \u2014 welcome to The Windup!<\/p>\n In our last Windup, we mused how Boston might pivot after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs.<\/p>\n A lineup upgrade is still possible, but for now, the signing of Ranger Su\u00e1rez (five years, $130 million<\/a>) gives the Red Sox a rotation that is starting to look more hydra than human: Garrett Crochet, Su\u00e1rez, Brayan Bello, Sonny Gray and one of: Kutter Crawford\/Johan Oviedo\/Payton Tolle (23 years old)\/Connelly Early (23)\/Kyle Harrison (24).<\/p>\n That\u2019s a lot of competition for the fifth spot, but remember teams like to have about 10 options these days (maybe you heard\u00a0arm injuries are an epidemic<\/a>). Well, good news: They also have Patrick Sandoval and Tanner Houck expected back at some point. That\u2019s 11 pretty solid starting pitchers.<\/p>\n As for the 30-year-old Su\u00e1rez, he has\u00a0one<\/a>\u00a0of the more interesting Baseball Savant pages:<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Fastball Velo: seventh percentile. To clarify, that\u2019s good. That\u2019s a pitcher who is being paid handsomely to plant persistent seeds of doubt in the minds of big league hitters.<\/p>\n So, what\u2019s next? Bo Bichette is still out there, but Matt Gelb tells us why Philadelphia\u00a0might have the inside edge<\/a>. Maybe the Red Sox could upgrade their infield by\u00a0trading some of that starting pitching depth<\/a>?<\/p>\n From Ken Rosenthal\u2019s\u00a0latest notes column<\/a>:<\/p>\n Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns\u00a0told the team\u2019s beat reporters<\/a>\u00a0Tuesday that after the season, opposing coaches and executives shared with him a common sentiment: \u201cYour defense wasn\u2019t close to good enough.\u201d<\/p>\n So how is it that the Mets are offering star free agent Kyle Tucker a three-year deal that is at least in the range of $40 million to $47 million per season,\u00a0per\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s<\/em>\u00a0Will Sammon<\/a>, and as high as $50 million, per FanSided\u2019s Robert Murray?<\/p>\n Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, surely would deepen the Mets\u2019 lineup. He was a Gold Glove finalist in 2020 and \u201821 and a winner in \u201822. But he has since declined in right field, and according to Outs Above Average, was a worse defensive outfielder last season than Brandon Nimmo. By the same metric, the Mets\u2019 current $51 million per year man, Juan Soto, was the worst defensive right fielder in the game.<\/p>\n If the Mets sign Tucker, either he or Soto will need to move from right to left field. Perhaps the Mets could get more defensively out of both, to the point where they are at least average. But Tucker would be a curious choice for a team supposedly hellbent on improving its defense. His low-key personality might not be an ideal fit for the New York market, either.<\/p>\n Last offseason, the Astros thought they had a deal in place to acquire Nolan Arenado. But after they traded Tucker, the Cardinals third baseman decided he didn\u2019t like Houston\u2019s direction and invoked his no-trade clause. The Astros went with Isaac Paredes instead \u2014 trade dead.<\/p>\n This year, a similar situation played out, but with the opposite results. After dragging it out for weeks, the Diamondbacks decided not to trade second baseman Ketel Marte after all. Shortly after that, Arenado\u00a0waived that no-trade clause<\/a>, and the Cardinals swapped him for 22-year-old RHP Jack Martinez \u2014 the D-Backs\u2019 eighth-round pick in last year\u2019s draft.<\/p>\n St. Louis will also be paying $31 million of the remaining $42 million on Arenado\u2019s contract, which runs through 2027. That\u2019s a\u00a0pretty good deal for the Diamondbacks<\/a>. No, Arenado is not in his prime, when he finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting from 2015-2019 (and again in 2022). And yes, he\u2019s a 10-time Gold Glover, but won his last one in 2022, and his last All-Star appearance was in 2023. Over the last two years, he has hit .257\/.310\/.387 (.697 OPS).<\/p>\n That\u2019s certainly not \u201c$42 million over the next two years\u201d good, but it\u2019s probably better than \u201c$11 million over the next two years\u201d mediocre \u2014 especially when the name recognition should help sell some tickets.<\/p>\n But the most likely scenario is fairly boring:\u00a0<\/strong>Arenado gives the D-Backs solid defense at third base, and they sell a few more tickets.<\/p>\n From the Cardinals\u2019 perspective: Sure, why not? You save $11 million, and the\u00a0next generation gets a shot<\/a>. The only surprise was that it wasn\u2019t to Boston, which already traded for the aforementioned Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras this winter, but is recently\u00a0down a third baseman<\/a>.<\/p>\n This is the nature of a rebuild, though. Eventually, you eat money and trade away the guys you acquired in the good times, back when you were \u2026 um \u2026\u00a0 a combined 0-3 in playoff games during Arenado\u2019s five-year tenure in St. Louis.<\/p>\n Baseball is hard.<\/p>\n The Royals finished 27th of 30 teams in home runs hit at home (70) last year.<\/p>\n Citing \u201ccompetitive reasons,<\/a>\u201d the Royals decided to metaphorically lower the rim so they could finally do that sick 360-degree windmill dunk. The Kauffman Stadium outfield walls are coming in about 10 feet in left and right field, and they\u2019re being lowered by about 18 inches basically everywhere.<\/p>\n It\u2019s\u00a0easy\u00a0an incredibly difficult and rare skill to make jokes in a newsletter, but there are actually some fascinating ramifications to this move. First, while it might increase home runs, it might end up decreasing batting average \u2014 Kauffman Stadium has always been known to have a lot of space for outfielders to cover.<\/p>\n It\u2019s also known for being a low-strikeout park. Eno Sarris (of course) has a numbers-first look at\u00a0what the wall moves will mean<\/a>, and it includes one interesting theory on the soon-to-be former dimensions:<\/p>\n \u201cThe pitchers know they won\u2019t give up homers,\u201d Tommy Pham\u00a0of PhamGraphs fame<\/a> once told me, \u201cSo they live in the zone without being scared.<\/p>\n The last time a team moved its walls, the Orioles pretty quickly decided, \u201cOops, too far,\u201d and moved them back in a bit. We\u2019ll see how it shakes out in Kansas City.<\/p>\n Sam Blum spoke to Rio Foster, the Angels prospect who was severely injured as a passenger in a drunk driving accident last season. Recovery \u2014 to the extent it\u2019s even possible \u2014 will be on the scale of years, not months. But the Angels\u00a0have yet to decide<\/a>\u00a0if they\u2019ll keep him on a minor-league roster so he doesn\u2019t lose his health insurance.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, the Hall of Fame\u2019s 2026 class will be revealed.\u00a0Here\u2019s how (most of) our voters voted<\/a>, with explanations, and here\u2019s\u00a0Jayson Stark\u2019s ballot column<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jim Bowden has an overview of some of the\u00a0more perplexing storylines<\/a>\u00a0of this offseason. What are the Tigers thinking?<\/p>\n Brendan Kuty has the\u00a0latest on the standoff<\/a>\u00a0between the Yankees and Cody Bellinger, but Chris Kirschner says a\u00a0reunion feels \u201cinevitable.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n After playing its inaugural season in Rosemont, Ill., the AUSL (softball) is spreading out \u2014 the league has announced homes for\u00a0each of its six teams<\/a>.<\/p>\n On the pods<\/strong>: \u201cRates and Barrels\u201d has begun its positional previews, starting with\u00a0shortstop<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0third base<\/a>.<\/p>\n Most-clicked in our last newsletter<\/strong>: The story on all nine remaining MLB teams\u00a0leaving Main Street\/FanDuel<\/a>. Well,\u00a0there\u2019s an update<\/a>.<\/p>\nBig Deals: Ranger Su\u00e1rez to Red Sox<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Hard-Hit percentage: 98th percentile!<\/p>\nKen\u2019s Notebook: Mets\u2019 pursuit of Tucker raises questions<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Sagas: Arenado (finally) traded \u2014 to Arizona<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n
Geometry: Royals moving fences in<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Handshakes and High Fives<\/strong><\/h3>\n