Baseball is all about probabilities, and that theorem also applies to prospects trying to become big leaguers. All players in professional ball have talent, of course; it\u2019s just that the competition level is so high and the margin for error so thin that there is a chance of failure for just about everyone.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
So what makes for a high-probability position player talent? Being able to consistently hit pitches very hard is deeply important. Plate discipline\u2014both in the ability to draw walks and avoid striking out too much\u2014is also important. So, too, is the ability to play competent defense, especially at a premium position. And while good tools are nice, players who utilize their toolsets to dominate competition in the Minor Leagues are more likely to succeed than those who struggle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
If that previous paragraph sounds like I\u2019m describing Carter Jensen, that\u2019s because it is. The Kansas City Royals selected Jensen with the 78th pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Park Hill High School, whose campus is a quick 25-minute drive away from Kauffman Stadium. And while all high schoolers have high risk, Jensen has blossomed into a really promising player and made his MLB debut last September.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Prospect lists aren\u2019t everything, but they give a good sense of how industry professionals who have watched and evaluated more baseball than you or I ever will think of a player\u2014and Jensen is regarded quite well. MLB.com lists Jensen as the 18th best prospect<\/a> in the game. The Athletic has Jensen at 10th overall<\/a>. Baseball Prospectus has Jensen at 44th overall<\/a>. Baseball America lists Jensen as the 11th best prospect<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n And yet, man, I think people are still sleeping on Jensen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n That\u2019s because of the third factor, the secret sauce if you will, in the cauldron of traits that contribute to probability that a minor leaguer will make it: age<\/em>. We see players hit well all the time in Minor League Baseball, and even do so at the upper levels. Most players who do so, however, are old for the league. Remember deep cut Royals prospect Balbino Fuenmayor? He hit an absurd .358\/.384\/.589 across Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. But he did so while already playing in his age-25 season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Jensen has been excellent throughout the minor leagues, and has consistently done so at very young ages. And in fact, last year\u2019s campaign put Jensen in extremely rarified air. I went and pulled all players who met this qualifications over the last decade:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Jensen was one such player. But across the thousands of players who have played in the Minors during that time, there are only eight<\/em> other players who qualify. It\u2019s a good list, featuring three Rookie of the Year winners, a Rookie of the Year top-three finalist, an MVP award winner, a current top prospect, and multiple other productive big leaguers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n But Jensen didn\u2019t stop there: he is one of only four players in the last decade to fit all of those categories and also<\/em> make his MLB debut the same year. The three players who qualify for that extra category are Gunnar Henderson (2023 AL RoY winner), Corbin Carroll (2023 NL RoY winner), and Francisco Alvarez (career 105 wRC+ and 6.6 fWAR in only 304 career games).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n To quote the indomitable Adam Savage, failure is always an option; Coby Mayo\u2019s big league career to date is a testament to that truth. Jensen could always end up on the Mayo path. And yet, probabilities are what they are, and given the skills that Jensen has already shown\u2014elite exit velocity, excellent plate discipline, solid contact ability, and a knack for adjusting to continually more difficult pitching at a young age\u2014it is very likely that Jensen is very good very quickly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\n
\n \n #<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n Name<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n Team<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n Level<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n Age<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n PA<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n BB%<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n K%<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n AVG<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n OBP<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n SLG<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n
\n wRC+<\/h3>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n
\n 2025<\/td>\n Jett Williams<\/td>\n NYM<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 572<\/td>\n 13.3%<\/td>\n 22.9%<\/td>\n 0.261<\/td>\n 0.363<\/td>\n 0.465<\/td>\n 136<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2025<\/td>\n Carter Jensen<\/td>\n KCR<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 492<\/td>\n 12.2%<\/td>\n 24.8%<\/td>\n 0.290<\/td>\n 0.377<\/td>\n 0.501<\/td>\n 136<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2024<\/td>\n Roman Anthony<\/td>\n BOS<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 20<\/td>\n 540<\/td>\n 14.6%<\/td>\n 23.5%<\/td>\n 0.291<\/td>\n 0.396<\/td>\n 0.498<\/td>\n 147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2023<\/td>\n Coby Mayo<\/td>\n BAL<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 614<\/td>\n 15.1%<\/td>\n 24.1%<\/td>\n 0.290<\/td>\n 0.410<\/td>\n 0.563<\/td>\n 153<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2022<\/td>\n Gunnar Henderson<\/td>\n BAL<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 503<\/td>\n 15.7%<\/td>\n 23.1%<\/td>\n 0.297<\/td>\n 0.416<\/td>\n 0.531<\/td>\n 152<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2022<\/td>\n Corbin Carroll<\/td>\n ARI<\/td>\n AA,AAA,CPX<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 442<\/td>\n 15.2%<\/td>\n 24.2%<\/td>\n 0.307<\/td>\n 0.425<\/td>\n 0.610<\/td>\n 144<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2022<\/td>\n Francisco Alvarez<\/td>\n NYM<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 20<\/td>\n 495<\/td>\n 14.1%<\/td>\n 24.8%<\/td>\n 0.260<\/td>\n 0.374<\/td>\n 0.511<\/td>\n 137<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2021<\/td>\n Spencer Torkelson<\/td>\n DET<\/td>\n A+,AA,AAA<\/td>\n 21<\/td>\n 530<\/td>\n 14.5%<\/td>\n 21.5%<\/td>\n 0.267<\/td>\n 0.383<\/td>\n 0.552<\/td>\n 150<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2016<\/td>\n Cody Bellinger<\/td>\n LAD<\/td>\n AA,AAA<\/td>\n 20<\/td>\n 477<\/td>\n 12.6%<\/td>\n 19.7%<\/td>\n 0.271<\/td>\n 0.365<\/td>\n 0.507<\/td>\n 147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n