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It\u2019s become a perennial trade music industry story: The combined global market share of the three major record companies and Merlin<\/a> on Spotify<\/a> is in decline.<\/em><\/p>\n Well, no more.<\/p>\n In 2025, according to Spotify,<\/strong> this long-running trend was actually reversed. By a sliver, anyway.<\/p>\n Before we get into the numbers, some important clarification:<\/p>\n With that all understood, let\u2019s dig in.<\/strong><\/p>\n From 2017 to 2024<\/strong>, the majors-plus-Merlin cohort saw their combined annual volume market share of music plays on Spotify consistently\u00a0decline, from\u00a087%<\/strong> in 2017<\/span>\u00a0 all the way down to 71%<\/strong> in 2024<\/a> \u2013 a 1,600 basis point<\/strong> decline.<\/p>\n During the same period (2017-2024), recorded music companies not represented by the majors or Merlin<\/strong> on Spotify saw their combined market share grow substantially, from 13%<\/strong> in 2017\u00a0<\/span>to 29%<\/strong> in 2024.<\/p>\n In 2025, according to Spotify\u2019s new 20-F annual report<\/a>, the majors-plus-Merlin<\/strong> cohort gained<\/em> a point of market share. Its repertoire\u00a0accounted for\u00a072%<\/strong> of all global music plays, while non-major or Merlin companies accounted for<\/span>\u00a028%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n This was the first time in Spotify\u2019s history<\/strong> as a public company that majors-plus-Merlin<\/strong> have grown their market share YoY.<\/p>\n Factors worth considering in this story include the high-streaming clients represented by Merlin<\/strong> and\/or the indie arms of the major music companies. Not least The Orchard, which distributed the biggest album on Spotify globally last year \u2013 Bad Bunny\u2019s DeB\u00cd TiRAR M\u00e1S FOToS.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the major music companies represented all ten of the biggest albums<\/a> on Spotify last year, including the K-pop Demon Hunters<\/strong> soundtrack (via UMG\u2019s Republic Records<\/a>) at No.2, Hit Me Hard And Soft<\/strong> by Billie Eilish (via UMG\u2019s Interscope) at No.3, SZA\u2019s SOS LANA edition<\/strong> (via Sony\u2019s RCA) at No.4, and Sabrina Carpenter\u2019s Short N Sweet<\/strong> (via Island<\/a>\/UMG) at No.5.<\/p>\n The majors also represented all of the Top 10 songs<\/a> on Spotify globally in 2025 \u2013 unlike in 2024, when No.4<\/a> (Gata Only<\/em>) was distributed by UnitedMasters.<\/p>\n The major labels\u2019 global dominance of the superstar market<\/strong>, however, is something we\u2019ve long been accustomed to.<\/p>\n Turn this story around, and there\u2019s perhaps a bigger narrative at play.<\/strong><\/p>\n One of the factors in the decline of the majors\u2019 Spotify market share<\/strong> over the past decade has been the collective streaming growth pulled in by the voluminous so-called \u2018middle-class\u2019<\/strong> of artists \u2013 i.e. commercially meaningful acts operating way below the global Top 10 (and indeed, the Top 100) lists of each year.<\/p>\n Much of this \u2018middle-class\u2019 artist growth has taken place outside the walls of UMG, Sony, and Warner<\/strong>. So have the \u2018big three\u2019, particularly via their indie arms, now begun making more significant headway<\/strong> into this part of the market?<\/p>\n Another potential factor in 2025\u2019s numbers might be Merlin <\/strong>expanding its member base across regions worldwide.<\/p>\n One should also obviously consider the power of M&A: for example, UMG<\/strong> only completed its 100% acquisition of indie stalwart [PIAS<\/a>] in October 2024<\/a>, meaning the resultant market share shift from this move wouldn\u2019t fully show up in Spotify\u2019s annual numbers until 2025.<\/p>\n\n