Guest column<\/strong>: Music Ally publishes guest columns which voice the opinions of notable authors that advance specific perspectives on important issues. These are chosen at the Editorial team\u2019s discretion and are not paid-for. You can explore the guest column archive\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n This guest post is by Patrick Clifton, executive director of the Organization for Recorded Culture and Arts (ORCA<\/a>)<\/strong> \u2013\u00a0 it appears here first, before publication on ORCA\u2019s <\/strong>Substack<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl\u2019s recent investor letter<\/a> makes explicit a strategic pivot for the firm that some may find dystopian.\u00a0 \u201cNew listeners of all ages are exploring historic catalogs and embedding clips into short-form videos\u2026 Best of all\u2026 AI begins to enable fans to interact with the music they love.\u201d<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n WMG doesn\u2019t need new hits, since \u201c27% of US streaming consumption in 2024 [came] from new releases versus 45% 10 years ago, [so] music companies no longer rely\u2026on the success of new releases.\u201d <\/em>The firm will invest in \u201cmargin-accretive acquisitions of high-quality catalogs\u201d<\/em> via a deal with Bain Capital, to double-down on older music. Warner is \u201cactively harnessing AI to win\u201d<\/em>, which will leverage the assets in their repertoire where \u201crobust performance from our catalog\u2026 keep[s] brands relevant and growing\u2026 through an always-on marketing philosophy.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0Sir Lucian Grainge outlined<\/a> successes in Universal Music Group\u2019s long-term strategy to investors on their earnings call \u2013 \u201cWe delivered \u2026progress\u2026advancing Streaming 2.0, scaling artist and label services, accelerating superfan initiatives, expanding in high-growth markets, and leading on responsible AI.\u201d<\/em>, where they see \u201cnew AI formats that will offer fans\u2026hyper-personalization and social expression through artist-centric music experiences.\u201d<\/em> A similar strategy based on (re)monetization of owned rights and offshoring A&R, rather than breaking artists to generate new proprietary copyrights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n Before streaming, the music economy was regenerative. Brick-and-mortar retailers relied on new product to drive footfall. Media needed new artists and music to engage audiences. iTunes depended on new tracks to drive sales.\u00a0 This emphasis on novelty was replicated during streaming\u2019s high growth phase. With up to 50% of playback from playlists, DSPs built global playlist brands and mimicked radio programming, with human curators deciding what music was \u201chot\u201d, especially in popular genres like Hip Hop and Dance & Electronic.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOlder music became the norm because it\u2019s good business for DSP\u2019s and for their partners who own that music\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n COVID lockdowns enabled near-complete household penetration in mature streaming markets. Post-COVID, there were fewer new streamers to acquire, so DSP\u2019s prioritised retention.\u00a0 As the metric is a function of engagement frequency and session length; the less jarring the listener\u2019s experience, the greater the probability they\u2019d keep paying. Advances in machine-learning improved algorithmic programming, which could be optimised for retention as well as benefit the bottom line. Older music became the norm because it\u2019s good business for DSP\u2019s and for their partners who own that music.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This pivot away from new music at the majors is evident, from the restructures of their frontline labels; the decimation of headcount; the collapse of label brands into each other; the investment into arms-length A&R through services and distribution infrastructure (via the \u201cbullpen strategy\u201d<\/a>).\u00a0 How long until we stop calling them \u201cmajor labels\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n Culture will tire of old music.\u00a0 For the labels that founded the Organization for Recorded Culture and Arts (ORCA), it should. Humanity\u2019s social history is marked by changes in music that reflect and influence wider culture.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n For ORCA, music is a dynamic artform; a medium that benefits from renewal, creative iteration and creative disruption.\u00a0 As a community of independent record labels, our foundation stories are rooted in counterculture, where many of the labels emerged from music scenes, from punk to rave, that rejected the status quo and revolutionised culture.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a teenager, I snuck cassettes from my favourite metal and hip-hop artists into the house, hidden from my mother\u2019s disapproving eyes.\u00a0 Music is a primary identifier of generational difference and the soundtrack to upheavals in culture.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n As much as the sounds of rave or new wave still resonate and excite, the cultural frame that gave birth to them is from the last century.\u00a0 ORCA believes that continued investment in, and promotion of, new music is critical to allow a new generation of artists, fans, and record labels to coalesce around sounds that represent their generation and their participation in culture \u2013 and not the sounds or experiences of their parents.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Major music groups will re-monetise their assets by developing new formats on AI platforms (as they did with CDs, downloads and streaming), this time at unimaginable speed and scale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n With \u201cbrands\u201d like Abba, Queen, Fleetwood Mac, and Prince more popular than ever, the bullishness of the opportunity to their investors is understandable.\u00a0 But if AI milks the cash cow by spitting out new iterations of popular Golden Oldies, soon every permutation will exist, leaving consumers and culture worn and spent.\u00a0 Training of LLM\u2019s on old music won\u2019t push music forward, it will create more music that sounds the same \u2013 and without the emotional input of humanity that makes music so vital.\u00a0 Intelligence devoid of soul is psychopathy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe nine ORCA labels surveyed invested nearly $240,000 per artist on average \u201c<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n The labels that founded ORCA own catalogues and have benefited monetarily from the growth of streaming. As Secretly Group CEO Darius Van Arman wrote in a piece on Music Business Worldwide<\/a>, they will need to engage with AI to ensure the perspective of independents shapes this development.\u00a0 But as ORCA\u2019s second report<\/a> demonstrated, our labels\u2019 monetary benefit from their catalogues is put back into new music, with the nine ORCA labels surveyed investing nearly $240,000 per artist on average on over 500 active music projects in 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s a shame the majors now retreat from proprietary artist development.\u00a0 We see it as an opportunity.\u00a0 The current zeitgeist<\/em> for nostalgia, itself an escape from an uncertain and turbulent world, will pass. The appetite for the classics will evaporate due to shifts in cultural appetites and an exhaustion of consumption accelerated by generative A.I.\u00a0 We\u2019ll be ready with new music from new artists, there to excite the ears of fans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the meantime, our labels will still be in music culture, doing what we do. We\u2019ll find and partner with great new artists who we like and respect. We\u2019ll help them make music the way they want and to find ways for it to be heard. <\/p>\n\n\n\n We\u2019ll continue to put out music that excites us.\u00a0 We hope some of it makes us and the artists money, but won\u2019t lose sleep if it doesn\u2019t, if at the very least we help enable some great music to enter the world that brings joy to fans and makes a positive cultural impact.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n This guest post from ORCA is featured on Music Ally in advance of publication on their Substack<\/a> on 25th March 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n
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\n\n\nPrioritising retention \u2013\u00a0and older music<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n\n\n![\"vibrant](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/musically.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/pexels-photo-36257830.jpeg?resize=780%2C520&ssl=1\")
Investment in new music is critical<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n\n\nNew music is an opportunity<\/h2>\n\n\n
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