It\u2019s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let\u2019s break down everything you need to know about tonight\u2019s matchup.<\/p>\n
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First Pitch: <\/strong>7:15 PM ET<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Location: <\/strong>Truist Park, Atlanta<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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TV: <\/strong>Fox (national broadcast)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Radio: <\/strong>680 AM\/93.7 FM The Fan<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Weather: <\/strong>65\u00b0 and clear, 7 mph wind<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
RF <\/span>Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.<\/a> (R)<\/span>
C <\/span>Drake Baldwin<\/a> (L)<\/span>
1B <\/span>Matt Olson<\/a> (L)<\/span>
3B <\/span>Austin Riley<\/a> (R)<\/span>
LF <\/span>Mike Yastrzemski<\/a> (L)<\/span>
2B <\/span>Ozzie Albies<\/a> (S)<\/span>
CF <\/span>Michael Harris II<\/a> (L)<\/span>
DH Dom Smith (L)<\/span>
SS <\/span>Mauricio Dub\u00f3n<\/a> (R)<\/span><\/p>\nQuick thoughts:<\/strong><\/p>\n
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As expected, Yastrzemski and Dom Smith check in versus a righty starter. While I don\u2019t know if Yaz will get subbed out late if he\u2019s facing a lefty reliever, watch for Atlanta to potentially pinch hit for Dom Smith late if it\u2019s close and they don\u2019t like the matchup against KC lefties <\/span>Matt Strahm<\/a> or Daniel Lynch. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Manager <\/span>Walt Weiss<\/a> indicated earlier in spring that he wouldn\u2019t be afraid to bat lefties Drake Baldwin and Matt Olson back to back, and he\u2019s doing that tonight. With two righties in Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. and Austin Riley buttressing them, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s an issue. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
3B <\/span>Maikel Garcia<\/a> (R)<\/span>
SS <\/span>Bobby Witt Jr.<\/a> (R)<\/span>
1B <\/span>Vinnie Pasquantino<\/a> (L)<\/span>
C <\/span>Salvador Perez<\/a> (R)<\/span>
DH <\/span>Carter Jensen<\/a> (L)<\/span>
2B <\/span>Jonathan India<\/a> (R)<\/span>
RF <\/span>Jac Caglianone<\/a> (L)<\/span>
LF <\/span>Isaac Collins<\/a> (S)<\/span>
CF Kyle Isbel (L)<\/span><\/p>\nQuick thoughts:<\/strong><\/p>\n
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A much more balanced lineup here for Kansas City, with no obvious platoon lanes to take advantage of late. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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With Jensen moving up in the order and Caglianone checking into right field, the middle third has a lot more power potential than last night. L\u00f3pez needs to be cautious about not hanging a breaking ball here. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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While Kyle Isbel is considered to be \u201cNick Allen, but in the outfield\u201d in the #9 hole, I think he\u2019s a little underrated as a defense and contact bat. Watch for him to do everything possible to get on base ahead of Maikel Garcia and the top of the order.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Quick snapshot (2024):<\/strong><\/p>\n
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1.99 ERA \/ 3.91 xERA \/ 2.92 FIP<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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27.3 K% \/ 7.7 BB% \/ 1.8% HR<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch mix (avg FB velo = 95.5 mph)<\/p>\n
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vs RHH: 56% 4S, 42% slider, 2% curveball, 1% changeup<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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vs LHH: 55% 4S, 20% slider, 19% curveball, 7% changeup<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
What to watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n
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This is the massive unknown; L\u00f3pez made just one start last season before missing the rest of the year for shoulder surgery and then has had variable performance (and velocity) through spring. He\u2019s reportedly mechanically sound and fully healthy for the first time in multiple seasons, but I still have no idea what to expect from a pitch usage perspective. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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His <\/span>previous<\/em> game plan was clearly very Strider-esque against righties: mostly heater and slider, with just occasional curveballs and changeups. Lefties saw almost equal usage of the two secondaries, with the goal being in-zone fastballs to generate whiffs and then sliders and curveballs for chase. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Quick reminder, as it comes up every L\u00f3pez start: He\u2019s probably the Braves pitcher that is most likely to intentionally throw below his max early in at-bats or innings, then ramping up to the high-90s with runners on base or two outs. He\u2019s got that reliever in him. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Quick snapshot (2025):<\/strong><\/p>\n
The arsenal (2025):<\/strong><\/p>\n
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Pitch 1 = 4S FB, 27% usage, 93.1 mph<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch 2 = changeup, 25% usage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch 3 = cutter, 15% usage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch 4 = sinker, 13%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch 5 = slider, 12% usage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Pitch 6 = curveball, 8% usage<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Wacha is the platonic ideal of a \u201ckitchen sink\u201d guy, capable of using and locating six different pitches in any given at-bat. That being said, even he has some platoon tendencies. <\/p>\n
Against lefties, he leads with equal four-seamer and changeup usage, supplementing with the cutter and curveball and then merely sprinkling in the sinker and slider. <\/p>\n
Righties, however, see four different pitches at least 15% of the time, a <\/span>true<\/em> kitchen sink approach. His usage pattern there is sinker\/four-seamer and slider (tied)\/changeup\/cutter\/curveball <\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/p>\n <\/picture><\/div>\n <\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher\u2019s arsenal in a given count (color key below). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.<\/em><\/p>\n
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Good luck. Knowing what is coming tonight or even being able to sit on a frequently-used pitch is going to be almost impossible in all but the most extreme of situations (3-0, essentially). It\u2019s a true test of hitting and pitch recognition that I don\u2019t think we talk about enough. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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No Braves hitter has seen Wacha more than nine times, although some do have good performance in that limited sample size:<\/p>\n
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Mike Yastrzemski is 3-9 with a homer, while Austin Riley is just 2-7 but both of those hits have been homers. <\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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Flip side of this is that Ozzie Albies is just 1-9, albeit with two RBI, and Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr. is 2-9 with a RBI.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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Potential limitations:<\/strong><\/p>\n
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I\u2019m guessing the plan is to try and stay away from <\/span>Robert Suarez<\/a> if possible, although Weiss won\u2019t risk a win for it; they\u2019d just make him \u2018down\u2019 for Sunday. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Quick takeaway:<\/strong><\/p>\n
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Weiss\u2019s usage yesterday was <\/span>Dylan Lee<\/a> for the 7th, Robert Suarez for the 8th, and <\/span>Tyler Kinley<\/a> for the 9th. Lee got two lefties and a switch hitter, Suarez got a lefty and then some righties, while Kinley came into the now blown-open game for a lefty in Vinnie Pasquantino and then got a lefty pinch-hitter (Jac Caglianone) and a righty. So far, so good for what I was looking for from the bullpen deployment. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n
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We didn\u2019t need it yesterday with Sale going six, but the question of who covers bulk innings is still lingering. At this point, I don\u2019t know if either <\/span>Didier Fuentes<\/a> or <\/span>Jos\u00e9 Suarez<\/a> could take more than an inning or two and then be ready for the game five start on Tuesday. Maybe <\/span>Aaron Bummer<\/a> gets the assignment? Let\u2019s hope we don\u2019t need to find out. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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