<\/p>\n
China stands to learn a lot<\/span> from the war in Iran. Red lines and deadlines imposed by the United States, even when backed by the threat of genocide, can turn out to be rather wobbly. The American military, despite its unrivaled power, has trouble swatting down swarms of cheap drones. But the most valuable lesson, at least for China\u2019s ambitions to seize Taiwan, has more to do with the way the world\u2019s supply chains, energy prices, and stock markets influence the U.S. willingness to fight.<\/p>\n It remains unclear what exactly led President Trump to step back from his ultimatum Tuesday that he would destroy Iran\u2019s civilization without major concessions, agreeing hours later to a two-week cease-fire and settlement talks even though Iran didn\u2019t appear to have given up significant ground. But the Iranian choke hold on the Strait of Hormuz evidently had a lot to do with it. By cutting off roughly one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply over the past five weeks, Iran\u2019s blockade of that narrow waterway caused an energy crisis and fears of a global recession that the White House could not abide for long.<\/p>\n China will have paid close attention to Trump\u2019s pain threshold. Although Beijing has numerous options for conquering Taiwan, the most appealing for the Chinese military would begin with a partial blockade of the island, much like the one Iran imposed on the strait. The resulting shock to the global economy would be far worse. Factories in Taiwan produce more than a third of the world\u2019s microchips. Without them, manufacturers would be forced to halt production of computers, cars, smartphones, home appliances, and countless other goods. Building the data centers<\/a> that power artificial intelligence\u2014the engine of American economic growth\u2014would be impossible without the advanced chips Taiwan produces.<\/p>\n Taiwan\u2019s leaders have tended<\/span> to see their chip industry as a source of security. In the fall of 2021, then-President Tsai Ing-wen called the industry a \u201csilicon shield.\u201d Writing in Foreign Affairs<\/em>, she argued<\/a> that American reliance on Taiwanese chips would protect the island against any \u201caggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.\u201d<\/p>\n The war in Iran has flipped this argument on its head. As seems clear from Tuesday night\u2019s truce, an authoritarian regime far weaker than China can use global supply chains as leverage and, in the process, force the U.S. to back away from its threats. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran caused the average price of gas in the U.S. to shoot up by nearly 40 percent, piling political pressure on Trump to end the war as soon as possible. A Pew Research Center poll<\/a> conducted at the end of March found that gas prices were the biggest concern among Americans when it came to the war in Iran, well above the chance of \u201clarge numbers of U.S. military casualties.\u201d<\/p>\n