{"id":2384887,"date":"2026-04-22T21:14:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T21:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/?p=2384887"},"modified":"2026-04-22T21:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T21:14:14","slug":"instant-oscar-predictions-for-michael-heres-where-the-king-of-pop-biopic-could-break-through","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/instant-oscar-predictions-for-michael-heres-where-the-king-of-pop-biopic-could-break-through\/","title":{"rendered":"Instant Oscar predictions for \u2018Michael\u2019: Here\u2019s where the King of Pop biopic could break through"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div data-article-body=\"true\">\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\"><em>Michael<\/em> is poised to moonwalk to the top of the box-office charts this weekend. <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/deadline.com\/2026\/04\/box-office-michael-weekend-projection-1236867306\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Current projections;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Current projections<\/a> have Antoine Fuqua&#8217;s embattled Michael Jackson movie earning between $65 million and $75 million domestically \u2014 which would be a new record for a musical biopic \u2014 and upwards of $150 million worldwide.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">In other words, the film&#8217;s launch won&#8217;t be impacted by<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/entertainment\/movies\/articles\/michael-reviews-critics-exhaust-supply-162512245.html\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:waves of negative reviews;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\"> waves of negative reviews<\/a>. Virtually every critic acknowledged that <em>Michael<\/em> is a glossed-over retelling of its subject&#8217;s life story, engineered to bounce from one musical highlight to another without dwelling on any of the troubling child-abuse allegations that plagued him later in life. Some reviewers still found elements to enjoy; most thought the sanitized story was too much to forgive.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\"><strong>More from Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">When Lionsgate initially hyped <em>Michael<\/em><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2025\/cinemacon-lionsgate-michael-jackson-movie-update\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:two years ago at CinemaCon;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \"> two years ago at CinemaCon<\/a>, the film seemed like it could be a bona fide Oscar contender, perhaps following the path of 21st century Academy Award players like <em>Ray<\/em>, <em>Walk the Line<\/em>, <em>Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>, <em>Rocketman<\/em> , and <em>A Complete Unknown<\/em> \u2014 or at the very least be in the initial conversation, like <em>Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere<\/em>, <em>Bob Marley: One Love<\/em>, the Amy Winehouse biopic <em>Back to Black<\/em>, or <em>Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance With Somebody<\/em>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><button aria-label=\"View larger image\" class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\"><span class=\"absolute bottom-3 right-3 rounded-full bg-primary p-3 opacity-100 shadow-elevation-3 transition-opacity duration-300 group-hover:block group-hover:opacity-100 md:p-[17px] lg:bottom-6 lg:right-6 lg:bg-primary\/90 lg:p-5 lg:opacity-0 lg:shadow-none\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" class=\"flex-none size-4 -scale-x-100 text-primary lg:size-6 [&amp;_path]:fill-current\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M3.1 3.1V11h1.8V6.314l5.392 5.393 1.415-1.414L6.313 4.9H11V3.1zm17.8 17.8V13h-1.8v4.686l-5.393-5.393-1.415 1.414 5.393 5.393H13v1.8z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/button><dialog aria-label=\"Modal Dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" class=\"fixed bottom-0 left-0 right-0 top-0 z-4 size-full max-h-none max-w-none bg-primary hidden\"\/><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<p>The Jackson 5 rehearse in &#8216;Michael&#8217;<cite>Lionsgate<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Now that <em>Michael<\/em> has finally arrived in theaters after<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/entertainment\/movies\/articles\/king-pop-born-first-teaser-143000123.html\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:months of reshoots;itc:0;sec:content-canvas;outcm:mb_qualified_link;_E:mb_qualified_link;ct:story;\" class=\"link  yahoo-link\"> months of reshoots<\/a>, a completely revamped third act, and a critical drubbing, we have to ask: does it have any chance to make some noise at the Oscars?<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">While it&#8217;s safe to say <em>Michael<\/em> has no shot at Best Picture, Best Director, or Best Screenplay, there are some categories where the biopic could be competitive.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"mb-4 text-lg font-bold\">Acting<\/h3>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">First, let&#8217;s acknowledge that the two actors splitting duty as Michael \u2014 Jaafar Jackson (Michael&#8217;s nephew and Jermaine&#8217;s son) plays the older version, while Juliano Valdi portrays Jackson 5-era spark plug \u2014 bothhave undeniable charisma and performing chops as they uncannily recreate Michael&#8217;s signature moves. Still, neither will be in the Oscar mix; instead, Colman Domingo as fire-breathing father Joe Jackson is the cast member who&#8217;s best positioned for a run. A two-time Best Actor nominee and industry favorite, Domingo will likely be the centerpiece of the <em>Michael<\/em> awards push for Best Supporting Actor.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img alt=\"Colman Domingo as Joe Jackson in 'Michael'&lt;cite&gt;Lionsgate&lt;\/cite&gt;\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"960\" height=\"557\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"rounded-lg\" style=\"color:transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/sVfLeeh_ncDnLuT7w7jLsA--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU1NztjZj13ZWJw\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/gold_derby_993\/ec55477ab4048b3d931fcc1f40e0d0ef\"\/><button aria-label=\"View larger image\" class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\"><span class=\"absolute bottom-3 right-3 rounded-full bg-primary p-3 opacity-100 shadow-elevation-3 transition-opacity duration-300 group-hover:block group-hover:opacity-100 md:p-[17px] lg:bottom-6 lg:right-6 lg:bg-primary\/90 lg:p-5 lg:opacity-0 lg:shadow-none\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" class=\"flex-none size-4 -scale-x-100 text-primary lg:size-6 [&amp;_path]:fill-current\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M3.1 3.1V11h1.8V6.314l5.392 5.393 1.415-1.414L6.313 4.9H11V3.1zm17.8 17.8V13h-1.8v4.686l-5.393-5.393-1.415 1.414 5.393 5.393H13v1.8z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/button><dialog aria-label=\"Modal Dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" class=\"fixed bottom-0 left-0 right-0 top-0 z-4 size-full max-h-none max-w-none bg-primary hidden\"\/><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<p>Colman Domingo as Joe Jackson in &#8216;Michael&#8217;<cite>Lionsgate<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"mb-4 text-lg font-bold\">Crafts<\/h3>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Unlike some of the most successful musical biopics of the 2000s (see: <em>Ray<\/em>, <em>Walk the Line<\/em>, <em>Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>), <em>Michael<\/em> won&#8217;t be competitive in Best Film Editing. And there&#8217;s obviously no new songs, which was <em>Rocketma<\/em>n&#8217;s ticket to an Oscar statuette. But there are some other below-the-line races where the movie could shine. With its faithful recreations of vintage 1960s, &#8217;70s, and &#8217;80s set pieces, <em>Michael<\/em> has a shot in production design, costume design, hair and makeup, and possibly sound \u2014 a category where musical biopics have traditionally found traction.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"relative mb-4\">\n<div class=\"relative\"><img alt=\"'Michael'\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"960\" height=\"557\" decoding=\"async\" data-nimg=\"1\" class=\"rounded-lg\" style=\"color:transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/Pnn34_B2JU2My1SAtyc4iA--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU1NztjZj13ZWJw\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/gold_derby_993\/bedbfcddabc5f87453bca43605fe11b7\"\/><button aria-label=\"View larger image\" class=\"group absolute bottom-0 size-full\" data-ylk=\"elm:expand;itc:1;sec:image-lightbox;slk:lightbox-open;\"><span class=\"absolute bottom-3 right-3 rounded-full bg-primary p-3 opacity-100 shadow-elevation-3 transition-opacity duration-300 group-hover:block group-hover:opacity-100 md:p-[17px] lg:bottom-6 lg:right-6 lg:bg-primary\/90 lg:p-5 lg:opacity-0 lg:shadow-none\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" class=\"flex-none size-4 -scale-x-100 text-primary lg:size-6 [&amp;_path]:fill-current\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M3.1 3.1V11h1.8V6.314l5.392 5.393 1.415-1.414L6.313 4.9H11V3.1zm17.8 17.8V13h-1.8v4.686l-5.393-5.393-1.415 1.414 5.393 5.393H13v1.8z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/button><dialog aria-label=\"Modal Dialog\" aria-modal=\"true\" class=\"fixed bottom-0 left-0 right-0 top-0 z-4 size-full max-h-none max-w-none bg-primary hidden\"\/><\/div><figcaption class=\"relative text-sm mt-1 pr-2.5\">\n<p>Jaafar Jackson does &#8220;Thriller&#8221; in &#8216;Michael&#8217; <cite>Lionsgate<\/cite><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Of course, this year is also loaded with the kind of big-budget event films that tend to stack craft nominations, including Christopher Nolan&#8217;s <em>The Odyssey<\/em>, Denis Villeneuve&#8217;s <em>Dune: Part Three<\/em>, Steven Spielberg&#8217;s <em>Disclosure Day<\/em>, David Fincher&#8217;s <em>The Adventures of Cliff Booth<\/em>, Phil Lord and Christopher Miller&#8217;s <em>Project Hail Mary<\/em>, as well as new entries from Marvel and <em>Star Wars<\/em>. With competition like that, even the King of Pop could fizzle out.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\"><strong>Best of Gold Derby<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\">Sign up for <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/pages.email.goldderby.com\/signup\/?source=yahoo\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Gold Derby's Newsletter;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Gold Derby&#8217;s Newsletter<\/a>. For the latest news, follow us on <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2RWKMjf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Facebook;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Facebook<\/a>, <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2DLfwuG\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Twitter;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Twitter<\/a>, and <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2BbVeZE\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Instagram;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-4 text-lg md:leading-8 break-words\"><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" data-yga=\"{\" ylinkelement=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.goldderby.com\/film\/2026\/michael-instant-oscar-predictions-odds-jackson-biopic\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" data-ylk=\"elm:link;elmt:article_link;slk:Click here to read the full article.;itc:0;sec:content-canvas\" class=\"link \">Click here to read the full article. <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><em> \u2018 The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em> \u2018 Some details of this article were extracted from the following source www.yahoo.com \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Michael is poised to moonwalk to the top of the box-office charts this weekend. Current projections have Antoine Fuqua&#8217;s embattled Michael Jackson movie earning between $65 million and $75 million domestically \u2014 which would be a new record for a musical biopic \u2014 and upwards of $150 million worldwide. In other words, the film&#8217;s launch [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2384888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[25172],"tags":[405613,320493,359957,318629,309642,304696],"class_list":["post-2384887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-entertainment","tag-antoine-fuqua","tag-gold-derby","tag-jaafar-jackson","tag-joe-jackson","tag-michael","tag-michael-jackson"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Instant-Oscar-predictions-for-\u2018Michael-Heres-where-the-King-of.jpeg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2384887"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2384889,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2384887\/revisions\/2384889"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2384888"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2384887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2384887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2384887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}