{"id":2513126,"date":"2026-07-22T20:35:26","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T20:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/?p=2513126"},"modified":"2026-07-22T20:35:26","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T20:35:26","slug":"two-risky-30-million-musicals-are-battling-on-broadway-dolly-and-paddington","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/two-risky-30-million-musicals-are-battling-on-broadway-dolly-and-paddington\/","title":{"rendered":"Two risky $30 million musicals are battling on Broadway \u2014 &#8216;Dolly&#8217; and &#8216;Paddington&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/wp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F2%2F2026%2F07%2Fnewspress-collage-adaa5p0jy-1784741031104.jpg?quality%3D90%26strip%3Dall%261784726691\" \/><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The Broadway season doesn\u2019t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play \u201cParanormal Activity\u201d starts previews at the August Wilson Theatre.<\/p>\n<p>To call the state of new musicals these days alarming would be an understatement. But we already have a hot early race. Or, well, hot-ish.<\/p>\n<p>Of the four new musicals that are currently on sale \u2014 \u201cGalileo,\u201d \u201cWanted,\u201d \u201cPaddington\u201d and \u201cDolly: A True Original Musical\u201d \u2014 there are two obvious pack leaders: The all-American Dolly Parton show and the polite British bear adventure from darkest England.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>A Dolly Parton bio-musical is coming to Broadway. <span class=\"credit\">REUTERS<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>What\u2019s surprising about that top pair is who\u2019s said to be ahead.<\/p>\n<p>That would be \u201cDolly,\u201d which, sources said, has an advance of more than $3 million \u2014 some $400,000 more than the marmalade-loving scamp, \u201cPaddington.\u201d Others claim the gap is much wider.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module aligncenter\">\n<div class=\"inline-module inline-module--more inline-module--columnist inline-module--more--thirds\">\n<div class=\"inline-module__inner\">\n<h2 class=\"inline-module__heading subsection-heading subsection-heading--single-line \">\n\t\t\tMore From\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"subsection-heading__sub\">Johnny Oleksinski<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>However, another source close to \u201cPaddington\u201d refuted that number and said it\u2019s neck and neck with \u201cDolly\u201d at $3 million worth of tickets sold.<\/p>\n<p>Who am I to pick a fight with a bear? Even one in a red hat.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s so left-field about these figures is that \u201cPaddington\u201d is a giant hit in London \u2014 one of the hottest shows there in years \u2014 and is largely sold out through late September with just scattered seats available through the end of the year. No Broadway musical can say the same. Most are too busy crying on Zoom calls.<\/p>\n<p><a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/12\/12\/entertainment\/paddington-the-musical-review-london-has-one-of-the-best-family-shows-in-years\/\">I saw \u201cPaddington\u201d last winter<\/a> at the Savoy Theatre and adored it. The musical is a sweeter, poppier \u201cMatilda\u201d with impressive tech.<\/p>\n<p>Then there\u2019s \u201cDolly.\u201d The country-music show with tunes such as \u201cI Will Always Love You\u201d and \u201cJolene\u201d <a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/08\/23\/entertainment\/dolly-partons-broadway-bound-musical-gets-vicious-reactions-in-nashville-drag-bar-in-vegas\/\">was mocked to high heaven <\/a>after its out-of-town Tennessee tryout last summer. One spy told me it would be better off \u201cin a drag bar in Vegas.\u201d Viperous critics tellingly weren\u2019t invited down south, and its Broadway bow was delayed.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>\u201cPaddington\u201d has been a huge hit in London. <span class=\"credit\">Mike Marsland\/WireImage<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The situation would seem to be a clear-cut hit vs. bomb, right?<\/p>\n<p>Not necessarily.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cuddly \u201cPaddington\u201d is an enormous risk in NYC.<\/p>\n<p>For one, according to an SEC filing, \u201cPaddington\u201d is capitalized at a grizzly $31 million, close to 2025\u2019s pricey flop \u201cDeath Becomes Her.\u201d The hit London production, a source said, was capitalized at $16.7 million.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s awfully expensive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBarmylade!,\u201d as one stunned wag put it.<\/p>\n<p>And then there\u2019s the brand\u2019s strength. The children\u2019s books by Michael Bond aren\u2019t widely read by American kids. And their millennial parents have no nostalgia for them like the British ones I saw sobbing in their seats do.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>\u201cPaddington\u201d is capitalized for $31 million on Broadway. <span class=\"credit\">Johan Persson<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Recently the wonderful movie trilogy has improved the little guy\u2019s visibility here a bit.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Yet the last film, \u201c<a rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/02\/10\/entertainment\/paddington-in-peru-review-cute-bear-goes-full-indiana-jones\/\">Paddington in Peru<\/a>,\u201d grossed $5 million <em>more<\/em> in the UK \u2014 a nation with one fifth the population of the U.S., where it sold a modest $45.8 million of tickets.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, family shows are always tough on Broadway. Our successful family fare tends to either be Disney or for <em>everyone<\/em>, like \u201cWicked.\u201d Heck, parents of eight-year-olds to this day mostly ask me about how they can score seats to \u201cHamilton.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPaddington\u201d will need to quickly prove its appeal beyond the very young. \u201cFrozen,\u201d big flop, couldn\u2019t manage that.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"> <span class=\"credit\">Johan Persson<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Of course, \u201cPaddington\u201d producers Sonia Friedman and Eliza Lumley think I\u2019m merely padding column inches. They say their show, which opens in the spring at the Al Hirschfeld, is in hibernation.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re still nine months from our Broadway opening, we haven\u2019t yet launched our campaign, nor have we announced the cast, and we\u2019re very pleased with where we are at this stage,\u201d they jointly said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u2018Paddington\u2019 followed a very similar trajectory in London. Sales accelerated dramatically once previews began \u2014 in fact, they exploded \u2014 as audiences experienced the show for themselves.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hmmm, they\u2019ve certainly done a little more than blast out a press release.<\/p>\n<p>In the leadup to their announcement, the production blanketed the city with teasing fliers saying \u201cHave you seen this bear?,\u201d in reference to a tense plot point at the end of Act One.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And the character Paddington \u2014 who\u2019s performed by an actress in a suit while an offstage actor operates the face and provides the kindly voice \u2014 appeared on \u201cGood Morning America,\u201d like a furry Matt Damon.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPaddington\u201d even tried to muscle in on Knicksmania this month in an Instagram video.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>\u201cDolly\u201d has been selling well despite doing little marketing. <span class=\"credit\">Matthew Murphy<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cDolly,\u201d which opens in the winter at the St. James, has done considerably less.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cA True Original,\u201d produced by Parton and the UK\u2019s Ambassador Theatre Group (which \u2014 the drama! \u2014 also owns Sonia Friedman Productions), announced its Broadway run with a social media video from Parton only two weeks ago and went on sale July 10.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been little marketing spend beyond that, I\u2019m told. Parton, 80, hasn\u2019t done any national TV interviews, and her show is selling well anyway, particularly with groups.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDolly\u201d\u2019s combined price tag for its Nashville tryout and New York productions is a hefty $30 million \u2014 including $17 million for Broadway. Like \u201cPaddington,\u201d it has an uphill climb.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>The musical had rough word of mouth after its 2025 tryout in Nashville. <span class=\"credit\">Dara-Michelle Farr\/AdMedia \/ SplashNews.com<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Parton and her collaborators, sources said, are addressing the gripes from the earlier run. More of her popular songs will be in the first act, and the story won\u2019t be as beat-to-beat biographical as before.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That sour initial word of mouth, luckily for Dolly, doesn\u2019t seem to have wafted far beyond the gossiping cobras of the theater industry.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cDolly Parton is a singular figure in our culture,\u201d said British producer Adam Speers of ATG. \u201cThere\u2019s nobody else quite like her: her humor, her remarkable empathy and an ability to make everyone feel like they\u2019ve known her their entire lives.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s key. Every American knows Dolly in their DNA like she\u2019s a prettier George Washington. But a lot of people will need to be properly introduced to Paddington and the Brown family for their $31 million musical to run the several years required to become a hit.<\/p>\n<p>Friedman and Lumley believe their show can do just that.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhilst \u2018Paddington\u2019 is set in London, its themes are universal,\u201d they said \u2014 tossing in a \u201cst\u201d for good measure. \u201cAt its heart it\u2019s a story about kindness, tolerance, acceptance and finding home. Those are values that resonate everywhere.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I completely agree. Though it wouldn\u2019t hurt if the main character\u2019s name was Simba!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><em> \u2018 The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em> \u2018 Some details of this article were extracted from the following source celebrity.land \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Broadway season doesn\u2019t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play \u201cParanormal Activity\u201d starts previews at the August Wilson Theatre. To call the state of new musicals these days alarming would be an understatement. But we already have a hot early race. Or, well, hot-ish. Of the four new musicals that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":2513127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[25174],"tags":[344468,22641,21741,345885,24047],"class_list":["post-2513126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gossip","tag-broadway","tag-dolly-parton","tag-entertainment","tag-musicals","tag-theater"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Two-risky-30-million-musicals-are-battling-on-Broadway-\u2014.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2513126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2513126"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2513126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2513128,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2513126\/revisions\/2513128"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2513127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2513126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2513126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2513126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}