This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut **TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northeast Suffolk, Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk * STORM INFORMATION: - About 760 miles southwest of New York City NY or about 850 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY - 32.1N 82.3W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 16 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Elsa will move over Georgia overnight and through the Carolinas on Thursday. The storm will then pass near the eastern Mid Atlantic states late Thursday, and move near or over Long Island and southeast New England on Friday. The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding, tropical storm force winds especially along the south shore of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas, dangerous rip currents, and high surf. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts is forecast from Thursday afternoon into Friday, with the highest amounts expected from the New York City metropolitan area north and west. Dangerous marine conditions should also develop on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on Long Island Sound and the south shore and eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most likely in those areas, near the south shores of Long Island and southeast Connecticut, and in some higher elevations in southeast Connecticut away from the coastline. Dangerous rip currents and high surf will likely occur along the ocean beaches of Long Island, along with some beach erosion. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Prepare for rainfall having possible significant impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Heavy rain may cause flash flooding and may prompt some water rescues. - Rivers and streams may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and may overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may overflow. - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Some road closures are possible. * WIND: Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Potential impacts in these areas include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, little to no wind impact is anticipated. * OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS: There is potential for dangerous rip currents Thursday and Friday, as well as high surf and beach erosion on Friday. * TORNADOES: Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * SURGE: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut, with a reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track, since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes can extend well away from the center of the storm. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others. When securing your property, outside preparations should be completed as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. Closely monitor https://weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio, and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see http://getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see http://redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 6 AM EDT.
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