This product covers Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut **TROPICAL STORM ELSA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northeast Suffolk, Northern New London, Northwest Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Southern Middlesex, Southern Nassau, Southern New Haven, Southern New London, and Southwest Suffolk * STORM INFORMATION: - About 260 miles south-southwest of New York City NY or about 340 miles southwest of Montauk Point NY - 37.6N 76.5W - Storm Intensity 50 mph - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 25 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ Tropical Storm Elsa will track northeast through the Mid Atlantic States overnight, and off the coast of New Jersey late tonight and near or over eastern Long Island and southeast New England on Friday morning. The main threats from Elsa are heavy rain capable of producing flash flooding, weak tropical storm force winds along the south shore and east end of Long Island and across southeast Connecticut, and associated marine and coastal hazards, including very rough seas and dangerous rip currents. A widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts is forecast overnight into Friday. The highest amounts are forecast to be across western Long Island, northeastern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and much of southern Connecticut. This will present a likelihood for scattered areas of flash flooding, particularly for areas that saw heavy rain over the last couple of days. Dangerous marine conditions are likely on the ocean waters south of Long Island, as well as on Long Island Sound, and the south shore and eastern bays of Long Island. Tropical storm force winds will be most likely in those areas, near the south shores and east end of Long Island and southeast Connnecticut, and in some higher elevations away from the coastline. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are expected along the ocean beaches of Long Island through Friday. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across Southeast New York, Northeast New Jersey, and Southern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - In hilly terrain, runoff may run quickly down valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across southern and eastern portions of Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Potential impacts in this area include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across New York City, coastal southwestern Connecticut, Northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut, minor tree and powerline damage is anticipated. * TORNADOES: Tornadoes may be possible, with limited impacts across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * SURGE: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time, with a reasonable worst case scenario of up to 1 foot above ground level acros vulnerable locales along Lower NY harbor, Jamaica Bay, Great South Bay, coastal Westchester and coastal Connecticut. * OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS: Dangerous rip currents are expected at Atlantic ocean beaches through Friday, as well as high surf and beach erosion. Minor damage to dune structures is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Remember that during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are unsafe. Keep cell phones well charged. Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. Never drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown! There is threat of tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly in case a tornado is spotted or a Tornado Warning is issued. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. Closely monitor http://weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see http://ready.gov - For information on creating an emergency plan see http://getagameplan.org - For additional disaster preparedness information see http://redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in New York NY around 6am EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.
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