History says this is a boom or bust season for Jalen Royals

The Kansas City Chiefs desperately need more production from their wide receivers this season. Rashee Rice has had well-publicized issues just being available. Xavier Worthy has been mildly productive through two seasons but hasn't lived up to his draft slot yet, and Tyquan Thornton is trying to build off flashes from last season to prove he isn't a complete bust in the NFL. With the Chiefs only spending a fifth-round pick on Cyrus Allen this offseason to upgrade the position, the door is certainly open for last season's fourth-round pick, Jalen Royals, to carve out a role.

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The Kansas City Chiefs desperately need more production from their wide receivers this season. Rashee Rice has had well-publicized issues just being available. Xavier Worthy has been mildly productive through two seasons but hasn’t lived up to his draft slot yet, and Tyquan Thornton is trying to build off flashes from last season to prove he isn’t a complete bust in the NFL. With the Chiefs only spending a fifth-round pick on Cyrus Allen this offseason to upgrade the position, the door is certainly open for last season’s fourth-round pick, Jalen Royals, to carve out a role.

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Royals was a complete non-factor as a rookie last year. Despite KC's issues and needs at the position last season, Royals could only muster 2 receptions for 4 yards. Despite the season being completely lost, they still chose to give veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster (who was clearly not part of their long-term plans) over 600 offensive snaps rather than seeing what they had in Royals. Perhaps that was because Royals wasn't ready, or perhaps that was because Andy Reid is too stubborn when it comes to how he brings rookie wide receivers along, but the fact is that Royals hasn't been able to prove anything in the NFL yet.

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Royals was a complete non-factor as a rookie last year. Despite KC’s issues and needs at the position last season, Royals could only muster 2 receptions for 4 yards. Despite the season being completely lost, they still chose to give veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster (who was clearly not part of their long-term plans) over 600 offensive snaps rather than seeing what they had in Royals. Perhaps that was because Royals wasn’t ready, or perhaps that was because Andy Reid is too stubborn when it comes to how he brings rookie wide receivers along, but the fact is that Royals hasn’t been able to prove anything in the NFL yet.

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History isn't on Jalen Royals' side

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History isn’t on Jalen Royals’ side

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The bad news for Royals (and the Chiefs) is that recent history says that if he doesn't have a huge jump in production this season, he likely never will. There were 59 wide receivers who had 500 receiving yards or more last season. Of those 59, none of them had a rookie season as unproductive as Jalen Royals, and almost all of them had proved they belonged in the NFL by their second season.

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The bad news for Royals (and the Chiefs) is that recent history says that if he doesn’t have a huge jump in production this season, he likely never will. There were 59 wide receivers who had 500 receiving yards or more last season. Of those 59, none of them had a rookie season as unproductive as Jalen Royals, and almost all of them had proved they belonged in the NFL by their second season.

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We aren't even talking about what it takes to become a true superstar wide receiver, just to be a solid 500-yard receiving contributor. If anyone is holding out hope that Royals could be a true No. 1 receiver someday, the best examples to look at for "late bloomers" are Nico Collins and Davante Adams. However, while neither of them put up huge numbers in their first two seasons, Collins still combined for 70 receptions for 927 yards in his first two seasons, and Adams put up a combined 88 receptions for 929 yards. Royals would need a massive breakout in Year 2 to come close to those numbers.

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We aren’t even talking about what it takes to become a true superstar wide receiver, just to be a solid 500-yard receiving contributor. If anyone is holding out hope that Royals could be a true No. 1 receiver someday, the best examples to look at for “late bloomers” are Nico Collins and Davante Adams. However, while neither of them put up huge numbers in their first two seasons, Collins still combined for 70 receptions for 927 yards in his first two seasons, and Adams put up a combined 88 receptions for 929 yards. Royals would need a massive breakout in Year 2 to come close to those numbers.

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The baseline for a successful Year 2

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The baseline for a successful Year 2

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Looking over those 59 wide receivers who put up at least 500 receiving yards last season, these six receivers had the least production through their first two seasons in the NFL.

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Looking over those 59 wide receivers who put up at least 500 receiving yards last season, these six receivers had the least production through their first two seasons in the NFL.

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Mack Hollins:

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Mack Hollins:

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 226 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 10 receptions, 125 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Total – 26 receptions, 351 yards, 1 touchdown

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 226 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 10 receptions, 125 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Total – 26 receptions, 351 yards, 1 touchdown

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Jameson Williams:

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Jameson Williams:

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• Year 1 – 1 reception, 41 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 24 receptions, 354 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Total – 25 receptions, 395 yards, 3 touchdowns

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• Year 1 – 1 reception, 41 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 24 receptions, 354 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Total – 25 receptions, 395 yards, 3 touchdowns

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Parker Washington:

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Parker Washington:

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 132 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 32 receptions, 390 yards, 3 touchdowns
• Total – 48 receptions, 522 yards, 5 touchdowns

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 132 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 32 receptions, 390 yards, 3 touchdowns
• Total – 48 receptions, 522 yards, 5 touchdowns

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Khalil Shakir:

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Khalil Shakir:

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• Year 1 – 10 receptions, 161 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 39 receptions, 611 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Total – 49 receptions, 772 yards, 3 touchdowns

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• Year 1 – 10 receptions, 161 yards, 1 touchdown
• Year 2 – 39 receptions, 611 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Total – 49 receptions, 772 yards, 3 touchdowns

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Kendrick Bourne:

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Kendrick Bourne:

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 257 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 42 receptions, 487 yards, 4 touchdowns
• Total – 58 receptions, 744 yards, 4 touchdowns

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• Year 1 – 16 receptions, 257 yards, 0 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 42 receptions, 487 yards, 4 touchdowns
• Total – 58 receptions, 744 yards, 4 touchdowns

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Jauan Jennings:

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Jauan Jennings:

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• Year 1 – 24 receptions, 282 yards, 5 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 35 receptions, 416 yards, 1 touchdown
• Total – 59 receptions, 698 yards, 6 touchdowns

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• Year 1 – 24 receptions, 282 yards, 5 touchdowns
• Year 2 – 35 receptions, 416 yards, 1 touchdown
• Total – 59 receptions, 698 yards, 6 touchdowns

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Keep in mind, these are the wide receivers who put up 500 receiving yards last season who had the least production through their first two seasons. So if Royals can't match this production, he really has little to no shot at making it in the NFL.

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Keep in mind, these are the wide receivers who put up 500 receiving yards last season who had the least production through their first two seasons. So if Royals can’t match this production, he really has little to no shot at making it in the NFL.

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What these comparisons tell us

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What these comparisons tell us

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If we look at these six players, Mack Hollins and Kendrick Bourne are career journeymen who have stuck around and proved they can fill in and produce if a team is hurting at the position. Royals having that kind of career is preferable to being a complete bust, but it isn't the preferred outcome for a 4th-round draft pick.

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If we look at these six players, Mack Hollins and Kendrick Bourne are career journeymen who have stuck around and proved they can fill in and produce if a team is hurting at the position. Royals having that kind of career is preferable to being a complete bust, but it isn’t the preferred outcome for a 4th-round draft pick.

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Jameson Williams is a unique case that is hard to compare anyone else to. The start of his career was delayed due to an injury and a couple of suspensions. He also has freakish NFL deep speed that makes him a unique talent who isn't likely to be similar to Jalen Royals, regardless of whether his career is a success or failure.

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Jameson Williams is a unique case that is hard to compare anyone else to. The start of his career was delayed due to an injury and a couple of suspensions. He also has freakish NFL deep speed that makes him a unique talent who isn’t likely to be similar to Jalen Royals, regardless of whether his career is a success or failure.

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The most interesting comparisons are Parker Washington, Khalil Shakir, and Jauan Jennings. Washington might be the most direct comparison, as he's another yards-after-the-catch-type wideout who was a little raw coming out of college. Both Shakir and Jennings are more possession-type receivers, and there is certainly an argument to be made that Royals' best path to NFL production is as a big slot receiver who can run after the catch.

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The most interesting comparisons are Parker Washington, Khalil Shakir, and Jauan Jennings. Washington might be the most direct comparison, as he’s another yards-after-the-catch-type wideout who was a little raw coming out of college. Both Shakir and Jennings are more possession-type receivers, and there is certainly an argument to be made that Royals’ best path to NFL production is as a big slot receiver who can run after the catch.

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Washington had the least total production of those three, combining for 48 receptions, 522 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his first two seasons. So Royals would need to put up 45-50 receptions, about 500 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns this season to be in the same range after two seasons.

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Washington had the least total production of those three, combining for 48 receptions, 522 yards, and 5 touchdowns in his first two seasons. So Royals would need to put up 45-50 receptions, about 500 yards, and 4-5 touchdowns this season to be in the same range after two seasons.

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The bottom line for Jalen Royals

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The bottom line for Jalen Royals

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So if Jalen Royals wants to have a better career than Mack Hollins and be any type of regular producer in the NFL, history says he needs to at least have a 45-50 reception, 500-yard season just to sneak into the bottom 10% of production through the first two seasons for all receivers who cleared 500 receiving yards last season.

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So if Jalen Royals wants to have a better career than Mack Hollins and be any type of regular producer in the NFL, history says he needs to at least have a 45-50 reception, 500-yard season just to sneak into the bottom 10% of production through the first two seasons for all receivers who cleared 500 receiving yards last season.

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So what do you think, Chiefs fans? Will Jalen Royals be able to hit that mark this season? Do you think he's capable of even more and will have a true breakout? Are you worried about him being a complete bust after how little he played last season? One way or another, we'll likely know the answer to that last question once this season is over.

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So what do you think, Chiefs fans? Will Jalen Royals be able to hit that mark this season? Do you think he’s capable of even more and will have a true breakout? Are you worried about him being a complete bust after how little he played last season? One way or another, we’ll likely know the answer to that last question once this season is over.