{"id":1839789,"date":"2026-07-25T13:52:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-25T13:52:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/?p=1839789"},"modified":"2026-07-25T13:52:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-25T13:52:46","slug":"a-moderate-and-nuanced-analysis-of-backrooms-obsession-and-theaters-in-2026-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/a-moderate-and-nuanced-analysis-of-backrooms-obsession-and-theaters-in-2026-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"A (Moderate and Nuanced) Analysis of Backrooms, Obsession and Theaters in 2026 So Far"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<h5><em><strong><span>(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today\u2019s article. <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/subscribe\">Please subscribe<\/a><span>.)<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n<p>I have somehow yet to write about the buzziest entertainment story of the year so far.<\/p>\n<p><span>I speak, of course, of <\/span><em>Backrooms<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Obsession.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span>Is it because I don\u2019t see how this is great news for the theatrical box office? Actually, no, I totally get that. Almost out of nowhere, two new films from young directors dramatically over-performed. One became a blockbuster and one is very popular. That\u2019s absolutely terrific. And the box office is <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/franchisere.substack.com\/p\/the-wednesday-charts-june-and-the-first-half-of-2026-at-the-box-office-july-preview-of-upcoming-film-releases-minions-moana-the-odyssey-christopher-nolan\">up compared to 2025<\/a><span>, and closing in on the pre-pandemic average.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Of course, a number like \u201ctwo\u201d is a small sample size, which naturally leads me to worry:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Are we overhyping this trend?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span>Because Hollywood loves to overhype trends. For example, we all remember just four years ago when a certain East Asian nation came to conquer Hollywood. I speak of South Korea, right after <\/span><em>Squid Game <\/em><span>became a global phenomenon for Netflix. Everyone rushed to South Korea to find their next global hit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>So <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2026-06-14\/south-korea-s-floundering-movie-business-turns-to-ai-for-help\">how\u2019s that going<\/a><span>?<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!eX5L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53e0f61e-248f-4ac5-877f-1625dfd02e0f_682x175.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Yikes.<\/p>\n<p><span>That\u2019s right: the South Korean film industry is struggling. The streaming boom faded, and it turns out South Korean TV shows didn\u2019t take over America. This is why precision in data analysis matters: the success of <\/span><em>Squid Game<\/em><span> showed that the <\/span><strong>ceiling<\/strong><span> of success of foreign language TV shows had been raised in America. But the data showed that the <\/span><strong>hit rate<\/strong><span> of foreign language shows had not. (I tried to <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/p\/is-this-what-the-globalization-of?utm_source=publication-search\">tamp down the hype for foreign TV shows in 2022<\/a><span>. Did folks listen? The opposite, if anything.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>You could add <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/p\/introducingthe-taylor-swift-data-squid-game-mrbeast?utm_source=publication-search\">concert films<\/a><span>, <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/p\/how-popular-is-anime-in-america?utm_source=publication-search\">anime<\/a><span>, <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/p\/the-26-biggest-myths-in-the-entertainment-industry-debunked-2024-entstrategyguy?utm_source=publication-search\">faith-based films<\/a><span> and maybe <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/p\/the-26-biggest-myths-in-the-entertainment-industry-debunked-2024-entstrategyguy?utm_source=publication-search\">musicals<\/a><span> to the list of potential box office saviors that never saved the box office.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I worry, writing all of this, that I\u2019ll come across as too negative, but there\u2019s been quite a bit of hype around the relative successes of <\/span><em>Backrooms, Obsession, Iron Lung<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Amazing Digital Circus<\/em><span> and the relative failures of <\/span><em>Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu<\/em><span>, <\/span><em>Supergirl, Disclosure Day, Masters of the Universe<\/em><span>, <\/span><em>Minions &amp; Monsters<\/em><span>,<\/span><em> <\/em><span>and the live-action <\/span><em>Moana.<\/em><span> I don\u2019t want to be a downer here\u2014which is ironic, because I\u2019ve long been bullish on theaters, pushing back against the \u201ctheaters are in structural decline\u201d narrative for years\u2014but right when almost everyone in town is ecstatic, I\u2019m worried.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I don\u2019t want Hollywood to learn the wrong lessons from the terrific success story of movies in 2026. (See this fun article for <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/comicbook.com\/movies\/list\/5-times-hollywood-learned-the-wrong-lessons-from-huge-movies\/\">past times Hollywood has done just that<\/a><span>.) I\u2019m going to break down the box office data from this year and past years to answer what may or may not have changed based on the success of <\/span><em>Backrooms<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Obsession<\/em><span>. As usual, expect loads of nuance, moderation, history and caveats. And I\u2019ll try to be honest when I say we don\u2019t know or can\u2019t say for sure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>More than anything, I want to write the most comprehensive analysis of the <\/span><em>Obsession<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Backrooms<\/em><span> (I\u2019m calling them O&amp;B from here on out) that you\u2019ll find on the internet. This article is over 5,500 words long, with 20+ images.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>If you want hype, I can\u2019t help you. If you want a much-too-long very deep dive through a bunch of box office trends, stay tuned.<\/p>\n<p>Today I\u2019ll look at\u2026<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Why I\u2019m actually worried about the box office, despite these successes\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Quantify how important popular and blockbuster films are to theaters\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Look at the ceiling for YouTuber-helmed films\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Explore what has and mostly hasn\u2019t changed for the horror genre in the 2020s\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Dive into A24\u2019s recent hit rate&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>See if Blumhouse has their mojo back (and if they ever lost it)\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Discuss why the potential death of superheroes and Star Wars worries me\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Ask whether \u201coriginal\u201d stories have actually taken over the box office\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Explain how important IP is for the box office, even today\u2026<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>And run through some scenarios on what went well and poorly at the box office this summer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And a whole lot more. But let\u2019s start by defining terms&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Before we can get to the data, let\u2019s define some terms. And start with a funny contradiction:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Horror films aren\u2019t nearly as profitable as superhero films. That said, horror films are very profitable compared to superhero films.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>How can both things be true?<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/i\/168421295\/introducing-the-five-factors-of-box-office-success\">As I\u2019ve written about before<\/a><span>, when box office analysts or journalists use \u201cprofitable\u201d, they often mean different things. I wish everyone talked about box office (and streaming) success in terms of the \u201c<\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/i\/168421295\/introducing-the-five-factors-of-box-office-success\">five factors<\/a><span>\u201d of box office:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Total revenue<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Total profit (profit in amounts)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Profitability (profit in percentages)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Hit rate (the number of hits in a genre\/category divided by the number of attempts)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span>Ceilings (the height a genre can hit in success)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5>For an individual film, I use the first three categories to evaluate success. For a genre, I use the bottom four, replacing \u201crevenue\u201d with \u201cceiling\u201d.<\/h5>\n<p><span>These factors matter for every genre, studio and classification in Hollywood. But not equally. Horror films, for example, have always had very high profitability (since they\u2019re cheap to make), but they never match the ceiling of genres like superheroes or family films. For example, either <\/span><em>Avatar: The Way of Water<\/em><span> or <\/span><em>Avengers: Endgame<\/em><span> may have grossed more in profit than every profitable horror film put out since 2018. Maybe longer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Let me repeat: just the profit for either film may equal an entire genre\u2019s profit for nearly a decade. For Hollywood to have fundamentally changed in 2026, this is the bar that O&amp;B need to hit.<\/p>\n<p>These five factors also apply to both domestic and global performance. For example, superhero, science fiction and family animated films do well globally; comedies and horror tend not to.<\/p>\n<p>This is why I can write, \u201cHorror films aren\u2019t that profitable compared to superhero films\u201d and someone else can write, \u201cHorror films are very profitable compared to superhero films\u201d and both sentences are true. One is about total profit; the other is about profitability. Both matter, but the distinctions often get lost.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m also going to use a few terms today, and I want to define them, because they matter to be precise. When I say something is \u201cpopular\u201d, I mean it\u2019s actually popular as in the dictionary definition:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201ccommonly liked or approved.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Not just liked by some, but actually genuinely popular. And for something to be a \u201cblockbuster\u201d it needs to actually bust blocks. When it comes to feature films, I use the following totals for domestic box office, and double them for global numbers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Super-blockbusters: Films grossing over $500 million (extremely rare)<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Blockbusters: $250 to $500 million<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Popular: $100 to $250 million<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Meh: $50 to $100 million<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Not: Anything less than $50 million<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Yeah, I know some folks will bristle at labeling certain films \u201cnot popular\u201d, even if they have fans or were made on the cheap. But again, this analysis is for everyone in the value chain, not just fans of certain films. Take <\/span><em>Iron Lung<\/em><span>. Did it have fans? Absolutely. Was it a great ROI hit? Yes. Is it popular? Not really. $40 million in domestic box office just isn\u2019t broadly popular.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Lastly, one logical fallacy I\u2019m trying to fight today is the \u201c<\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Availability_heuristic\">availability heuristic<\/a><span>\u201d. This is the idea that it\u2019s easier to recall prominent examples than less notable examples. Classically, everyone remembers when a plane crashes, but they don\u2019t hear about car crashes nearly as much, so folks fear planes more than cars, even though they\u2019re likelier to die in a car crash than a plane crash. Examples of plane crashes are more \u201cavailable\u201d to the brain when coming up with examples of deadly vehicle accidents.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>This happens all the time with less popular films. In horror, everyone remembers the successes (think <\/span><em>Backrooms<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Obsession<\/em><span>) but they don\u2019t remember the silent failures (think <\/span><em>Busboys, Hokum<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Keeper<\/em><span>). By the way, if you don\u2019t know what those last three films are, that\u2019s my exact point! But if you\u2019re asking about hit rates, all the data points matter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>I used box office data from <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.the-numbers.com\">The-Numbers<\/a><span>, and stopped updating data after last weekend. I also used <\/span><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/franchisere.substack.com\">FranchiseRe&#8217;s<\/a><span> analysis in multiple spots.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Okay, with that out of the way, let\u2019s start off with a summary of my concerns.<\/p>\n<p>While heaping doses of moderation are coming at you, I do, obviously, have a thesis today. Here it goes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><span>The success of <\/span><em>Backrooms<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Obsession<\/em><span> was terrific news for the box office in May.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span>In fact, the best news this year was the success of <\/span><em>Project Hail Mary, Michael<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>The Devil Wears Prada 2<\/em><span>\u2014all based on popular IP\u2014which are about as traditional as Hollywood productions get. (And you know, <\/span><em>Toy Story 5 and The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie.)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Looking at these films, that means success has come in the form of original films, sequels and new franchises based on popular IP. All three need to work together to elevate the box office.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>That said, it would have been even better if Hollywood had produced two or three more blockbusters this summer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>The success of the new franchises (O&amp;B) hasn\u2019t offset the struggles of existing franchises. If both were performing well, we\u2019d be seeing tremendous box office success.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span>The box office (and hence theaters) need IP\/franchises <\/span><em>and<\/em><span> original films to do well.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>The box office also needs original, non-IP films that aren\u2019t horror films to succeed, and we haven\u2019t really seen that. This is what worries me the most.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Disney is relying on IP too much, and their poor execution in the 2020s is hurting the box office.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Again, I want to be positive about this moment and this year\u2019s box office, but to be blunt, the lack of blockbusters this summer has me worried. I\u2019m more worried about the decline of superhero films (without a blockbuster-level replacement for them) than I am optimistic about the rise of more horror films.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, now, time for the specifics and the data&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s start with what has me so worried.<\/p>\n<p>Each year, I pull data for the top 100 films and look at the top performing flicks. And I categorize them by budget level, using categories I define below. Three charts will show you just how important popular and above films are to the box office.<\/p>\n<p>See, here\u2019s the count of films by budget category:<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png\" width=\"677\" height=\"512\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:512,&quot;width&quot;:677,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:33787,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/i\/208351457?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fEM_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b141efb-17db-4b45-8fa4-52c302312496_677x512.png 1456w\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\" \/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>That\u2019s a lot of \u201cnot popular\u201d and \u201cmeh\u201d films, right?<\/p>\n<p>So now we take those levels, and instead of just counting films, we add up all the box office. Here are those totals:<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png\" width=\"690\" height=\"532\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:532,&quot;width&quot;:690,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Lt2Y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F755d81b4-9b02-4e13-a469-9a72ca3adf20_690x532.png 1456w\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\" \/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In other words, blockbusters and popular films earn over five billion of the domestic box office each year. I mean, we\u2019ve only had a handful of \u201csuper blockbusters\u201d (literally six) that grossed over $500 million since 2022, but they\u2019ve combined for nearly $4 billion in box office grosses.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s that same data, but as a percentage of the top 100:<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png\" width=\"811\" height=\"543\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:543,&quot;width&quot;:811,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!9GRb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9e1b3287-3fa6-45e6-8b72-eaaec7393ae4_811x543.png 1456w\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\" \/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Films that gross over $100 million at the box office accounted for 64% of the domestic box office over the last four years. Adding in films that made over $50 million gets you to 80%. And yes, before you ask, the top 100 films at the US box office make up the near majority of total box office.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a table with total box office as well:<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png\" width=\"846\" height=\"244\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:244,&quot;width&quot;:846,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jTOl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F996e511c-e6e9-4b68-8306-8997bdd408f7_846x244.png 1456w\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\" \/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>So we can look at the current counts through the third week of July 2026\u2026and I\u2019m not sure we\u2019re really up. As of this moment, we haven\u2019t had a super-blockbuster, though <\/span><em>The Odyssey<\/em><span>, <\/span><em>Spider-Man: Brand New Day<\/em><span> and <\/span><em>Avengers: Doomsday<\/em><span> could all cross the $500 million mark. (At this point, <\/span><em>The Odyssey<\/em><span> would need a very strong hold to get there.) We have five blockbusters, and I\u2019d say the three just mentioned films will all likely break that barrier too. But we\u2019re light on popular films, with only ten right now. (Maybe eleven if <\/span><em>Moana<\/em><span> can break through to $100 million.)<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png\" width=\"670\" height=\"520\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/d14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:520,&quot;width&quot;:670,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:32607,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/entertainment.substack.com\/i\/208351457?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png 424w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png 848w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png 1272w, https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!wIsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd14e135f-dc81-415f-85f2-76f5866ca406_670x520.png 1456w\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\" \/><\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Yes, on one hand, it\u2019s only halfway through the year, but on the other hand, summer is the box office\u2019s most valuable season. And that\u2019s not great news for theaters.<\/p>\n<p><span>If the box office sees fewer and fewer blockbuster films each year without a huge (and I mean very, very large) increase in \u201cMeh\u201d or \u201cPopular\u201d films, theaters will go out of business. Again, a blockbuster film makes anywhere from $250 to $500 million. You\u2019d need, then, five to ten extra <\/span><em>Iron Lungs<\/em><span> to replace each missing blockbuster. We\u2019ll enter the structural decline the streaming bulls have been warning about. (Something they\u2019ve been warning us about for ten years, but hey, it could still happen.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s dig into the data to see what has really changed (or not) with theatrical films, starting with the buzzy genre of the moment.<\/p>\n<p>Okay, let\u2019s dive in, ranking everything by whether the current data for 2026 changes the trajectory of a category\/studio up, down or flat, and by how much.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><em> \u2018 The preceding article may include information circulated by third parties \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em> \u2018 Some details of this article were extracted from the following source entertainment.substack.com \u2019 <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em> \u2018 O artigo anterior foi obtido e traduzido do site internacional da celebrity.land   \u2019 Source Link <\/em><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today\u2019s article. Please subscribe.) I have somehow yet to write about the buzziest entertainment story of the year so [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1839790,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1839789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-entretenimento"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1839789"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839789\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1839791,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1839789\/revisions\/1839791"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1839790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1839789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1839789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/celebrity.land\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1839789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}