2026 Oscars Best Actor Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Oscars Best Actor Commentary (Updated Aug. 21, 2025): A-listers, previous Oscar nominees and long-overdue performers hope to be front and center this upcoming awards season.

The Venice and Telluride film festivals are expected to debut Dwayne Johnson’s transformational work in Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” Jesse Plemons in the twisted world of Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” and a double dose of Oscar Isaac from Guillermo del Toro’s monster drama “Frankenstein” and Julian Schnabel’s adaptation of “The Hand of Dante,” which is still seeking U.S. distribution.

The Cannes Film Festival has already delivered a few names that will be in awards discussions, including best actor winner Wagner Moura from Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian political thriller “The Secret Agent.”

From the first half of the year, Michael B. Jordan looks to finally net his first nomination for his dual role in Ryan Coogler’s supernatural thriller “Sinners.” After snubs for “Fruitvale Station” and “Black Panther,” the multi-hyphenate star is way overdue for recognition.

Previous Oscar darlings will enter the fray, including three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, who is coming out of retirement for his son Ronan Day-Lewis’ drama “Anemone,” which he also co-wrote. Russell Crowe looks to make his triumphant return to the awards lineup more than 20 years after “A Beautiful Mind” with the Holocaust drama “Nuremberg,” directed by James Vanderbilt and co-starring Rami Malek.

Dozens of other notable names are worth watching, including Oscar-winner Leonardo DiCaprio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” Channing Tatum as a Toys R’ Us robber in Derek Cianfrance’s “Roofman” and Jeremy Allen White as the iconic singer Bruce Springsteen in the biopic “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” directed by Scott Cooper.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.

See all Academy Award predictions below:

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

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