The Nationals play in a large market and won a championship as recently as 2019, but for the last five years they have operated like a poverty franchise. Their $111 million Opening Day payroll is less than what the small-market Royals paid, and a third of that goes to retired pitcher Stephen Strasburg. The rebuild has failed to produce many useful players, and they are well on their way to losing 90+ games for the fifth consecutive year.
Washington Nationals (47-70) vs. Kansas City Royals (58-60) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Nationals: 4.26 runs scored/game (20th in MLB), 5.48 runs allowed/game (29th)
Royals: 3.68 runs scored/game (29th), 3.84 runs allowed/game (2nd)
Only three teams have hit fewer home runs and drawn fewer walks than the Nationals (the Royals being one of them). The Nationals have an All-Star in James Wood, a blossoming young infielder in CJ Abrams, and not much else offensively. They are hoping catcher Keibert Ruiz and outfielder Dylan Crews will be part of their future, but both have been disappointing this year and are currently out with injuries. There is still some hope in third baseman Brady House and outfielder Robert Hassell III, but much of the rest of the roster is filled with stop-gaps.
Veteran Josh Bell is hitting .333/.456/.512 over his last 25 games. He is a career 6-for-24 (.250) hitter with two home runs against Michael Wacha. Abrams is hitting .304/.370/.593 with 12 of his 15 home runs on the road. Luis García Jr. became the second-youngest player to have six hits in a game when he did it in 2023 at Kauffman Stadium. Drew Millas is a .357 hitter against righties, but just .222 against lefties.
Jacob Young is mired in a 4-for-40 (.100) slump. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe is hitting just .169/.235/.257 against lefties. Riley Adams has a 43 percent hard-hit rate, but he hits it into the ground 52 percent of the time. House swings the bat 58 percent of the time, eighth-highest in baseball for anyone with 150 plate appearances. Hassell was the eighth overall pick of the 2020 draft by the Padres and is 7-for-18 (.389) with four doubles and a home run since his recall from the minors on August 1.
The Nationals pitching staff has been awful, and they’re on pace to give up a franchise record in runs allowed. Former first-round pick Cade Cavalli made his second career MLB start last week, striking out six in 4.1 scoreless innings. He made his MLB debut three years ago, but has had to recover from Tommy John surgery. He looked sharp in his return, throwing in the high-90s with a 50 percent whiff rate on his curve and 59 of his 88 pitches thrown for strikes.
Mitchell Parker has allowed 32 runs in 31.1 innings over his last six starts. He has the lowest strikeout rate among qualified starters and the sixth-highest hard-hit rate. The road has not been kind to him – he has a 6.10 ERA away from DC. Opponents are hitting .300 off his curveball.
Jake Irvin has the sixth-highest home run-to-flyball rate, second-highest contact rate, and the second-lowest swinging strike rate. He has given up 26 home runs, the second-most in baseball. Lefties are hitting .273/.334/.519 against him this season with 16 of those home runs. He has allowed 35 runs in 41.1 innings over his last eight starts.
The Nationals have by far the worst bullpen ERA in baseball at 5.84 with the second-worst strikeout rate. They traded away closer Kyle Finnegan in July, leaving Jose A. Ferrer to handle closing duties. Ferrer throws strikes, with the fifth-lowest walk rate, and his 59 percent groundball rate is tenth among relievers. Cole Hnry has the fourth-highest soft-hit rate and the fifth-highest pop-up rate among relievers. Jackson Rutledge has the third-highest home run rate among relievers.
The Nats have lost 3 of 11, although they took two of three from the Giants on this road trip. They bring the worst pitching staff to town, although the Royals’ lineup has a way of lowering opponents’ ERAs. But if this team is going to make a run, winning, or even sweeping the series is imperative.
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