- The Royals are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Royals TV Channel: MASN | FDKC
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-150) on Monday, August 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Nationals are 47-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 60-57 ATS.
Nationals vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 7-6, 4.15 ERA
Nationals vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Royals | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Walks Over in his last 7 away games (+10.85 Units / 155% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.50 Units / 210% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+17.00 Units / 340% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 101 games (+11.94 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+11.32 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 44 away games (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 118 games (+30.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 68 of their last 117 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 94 games (+3.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 57-60 against the Run Line (-15.95 Units / -10.45% ROI).
- 47-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.07 Units / -9.72% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 1.97% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -10.66% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 60-57 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -5.61% ROI).
- 58-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.32% ROI
- 50-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.87 Units / -17.76% ROI
- 67-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 9.02% ROI
Royals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
Royals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Royals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
Royals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (8/12) against Cade Cavalli this month (1 game) — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Cade Cavalli’s pitches (52/88) this month (1 game) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 41% (19/46) against Cade Cavalli this month (1 game) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (19/52) against Cade Cavalli this month (1 game) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .651 (28 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (102/626) against Bailey Falter this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 23% (145/629) against Bailey Falter this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (144/833) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Nationals are just 12-29 (.293) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Royals (Ranks second runs allowed) today.
The Nationals are just 8-30 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .370.
The Nationals are just 46-70 (.393) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 15-57 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 50-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are 41-3 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Nationals are batting .159 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .147.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals are batting just .293 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Royals are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 2.00 runs per game (232/116) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (1020.2 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents are hitting .272 against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% against Royals pitchers this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 28% with two-strikes this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
More MLB Reading:
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