Looking at American League wildcard contender schedules racing toward seasons end

The Royals’ postseason odds remain tenuous, but they are not dead yet and have been playing much better offensively lately. It helps a lot that Texas and Tampa Bay have fallen off post-All-Star break, leaving the number of teams that KC needs to jump over at just two. What I wanted to do was look at the teams they would like to pass and see how their schedules line up over the rest of the season, depending on the team, and see which might be easier or harder to catch based on that.

Games remaining are from August 20th to the end of the season. I have classified teams as (1) contenders; (2) non-contenders, and (3) in-between (Texas, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis).

The toughest schedule belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

There are very few weak opponents left for Cleveland to try and fatten up on. Royals fans just watched our team beat up on some inferior opponents and close the gap on the Guardians. They don’t really have a stretch like that any time coming down the stretch. In fact, after their current series, they play Texas, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Boston, Tampa again, and Kansas City before getting any bottom feeders. Detroit is still on the schedule twice too, so the path looks pretty daunting for the Guards.

It is a very similar breakdown to Cleveland, but with two fewer games and a lot more non-contenders rather than Tampa Bay and Texas. Still somewhat tough sledding, but not quite as treacherous. The weaker teams are sprinkled in nicely too, so no long stretches without a break from the higher difficulty. They have been playing well and have a chance to catch Houston but only have three games remaining at the Astros.

Once again, 16 contenders, but an easier schedule each time as it shifts to more non-contenders. Boston gets to play Baltimore, followed by Pittsburgh next week, and they have two more series against the A’s. That evenly balances out the tougher remaining series, including seven games against New York and three apiece against Toronto and Detroit.

The Yankees are on the easier side.

New York has one or two more games than everyone else, but they are not against the tougher teams. Yes, the seven games against Boston are also on their schedule, but so are the Nationals, White Sox twice, Baltimore twice, and Minnesota. It looked like they were plummeting only a little over a week ago. They have righted the ship, going 7-3 in their last 10, and now head into a mostly easier path for the rest of the way.

Finally, the Houston Astros.

The Astros have by far the lowest level of difficulty remaining – one more game with Detroit and then one three-game set each against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Mariners. Other than that, it is a slew of games against the Angels, As, Braves, and Rockies. I was kind of hoping Seattle would run them down, but now I have a hard time believing it as Houston has already survived all of the tough stretches that they had to for the year, and they might get to coast to an AL West win.

I did an analysis of the Royals second half schedule a few weeks ago. Making it simpler and in this article’s format, they have 19 remaining games against contenders, the most of any of the possible wildcard teams. They still have two more with Texas today and tomorrow for the middling teams and then 15 against the non-contenders, so only more bottom feeders than Seattle and Cleveland. It is not going to be easy for this team to find their way into the playoffs from behind and with one of the more difficult remaining schedules.

Overall, the Royals need to outplay Cleveland, and with their schedule, that looks very possible as the two teams are now in a virtual tie with KC having a half game edge. They will also need to run down one of the other Wild Card teams. Both Boston and Seattle have struggled a bit recently and are now only 2.5 up on the Royals and the Yanks are a game clear of them. New York and Boston already have the tiebreaker over Kansas City too, so making up all that ground is going to be even a little more difficult. Only one of them needs to collapse for it to happen, though, and after looking at this, my hope is that either Boston or New York dominates the other in their seven remaining to open up an opportunity.

Meanwhile, the Royals cannot afford to have any more bad weeks. The margin for error is still very slim, but the last week and a half has really moved the Royals odds back in a positive direction.