Griffin Wong gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Kansas City Royals.
The battle for the final Wild Card spot in the American League has gone back and forth all season, and entering the home stretch of the season, it’s a fairly tight battle: the Seattle Mariners hold pole position, with the Texas Rangers 1.5 games back and the Kansas City Royals (2.5 games behind Seattle) in close pursuit. Kansas City has a chance to close that gap as it begins a three-game home series against the Los Angeles Angels tonight.
The series will begin with a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch tonight at Kauffman Stadium. Michael Lorenzen will get the start for the Royals, while Mitch Farris is set to make his MLB debut for the Angels.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals prediction, preview
Kansas City did just enough at the trade deadline to keep itself in the playoff fight, acquiring Randal Grichuk, Mike Yastrzemski, Ryan Bergert, and Stephen Kolek, and despite optioning Kolek to Triple-A, the acquistions have played well. Bergert has pitched to a 2.54 ERA in his five starts, Kolek was excellent in his one start, and Yastrzemski has recorded a .976 OPS as the Royals have gone 16-12. Los Angeles, meanwhile, had a miserable month, recording a 5.22 ERA and going just 11-16. The Angels’ bullpen acquisitions, Andrew Chafin and Luis García, have been good, but both the rotation and the offense have collapsed.
Lots of future stars have had strong MLB debuts this season, from the Milwaukee Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski to the New York Mets’ Nolan McLean to the the Boston Red Sox’s Payton Tolle, so there’s a pathway for Farris to be successful right from the jump. But unlike Misiorowski, McLean, and Tolle, who had all made at least two starts at the Triple-A level and been successful, Farris is making the jump straight from Double-A, where he has posted just a 4.27 ERA this season. To be fair, he’s been solid in his last seven appearances, allowing 12 earned runs across 40.2 innings and striking out 50, but Kansas City isn’t the Columbus Clingstones. In fact, the Royals have struck out at the league’s second-lowest rate, and if Farris isn’t striking batters out, he has too many unpolished tools to be ready.
Of course, Lorenzen isn’t exactly a model of consistency. The veteran produced among the finest starts of his career on July 6, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings, but he went on the Injured List immediately afterwards with a left oblique strain. Since his return, he’s been mediocre, allowing seven earned runs on 19 hits in 13.1 innings pitched, and it’s not like either of his rehab starts with Double-A Northwest Arkansas were impressive, either. This season, Lorenzen ranks in just the 14th percentile in pitching run value and the 28th percentile in whiff rate, and he’s arguably gotten lucky that his fastball hasn’t resulted in more damage.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 9 (-109)
I’m not incredibly impressed with either of these pitchers, and while Los Angeles has struggled on offense lately, Kansas City’s is good enough that I feel confident taking the over here in a venue that has been the league’s fifth-most hitter-friendly this season.
Strong Lean: Bobby Witt Jr. 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI’s (+105)
Witt has been in pretty solid form as of late, putting up a .943 OPS in August and recording three or more H/R/RBI in 14 of his 27 games during the month. The 25-year-old has recorded a .910 OPS against southpaws this season.
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