With the offseason now underway, one of the first bits of business for the Royals front office will be deciding what to do with their arbitration-eligible players. Each winter, MLB Trade Rumors releases its annual list of projected arbitration salaries, giving us a glimpse of what each player might earn if they go through the process instead of agreeing to a deal. The Royals have quite a few decisions to make this year, which will shape how they approach the off-season.
Overall, the Royals have a total of 16 arbitration-eligible players, tied with the Rays and Astros for most in baseball.
David Lesky notes that MLB Trade Rumors seems to be basing Jonathan India’s 2026 projection on incorrect 2025 salary data. He estimates India’s projection would be closer to $9 million, which I agree with.
Kris Bubic, Maikel Garcia, Lucas Erceg, and Vinnie Pasquantino are the no-brainers to tender. Kyle Isbel will certainly be tendered as the team loves his defense. Angel Zerpa and John Schreiber had some inconsistencies, but have a decent enough track record that the Royals are very likely to tender them. Taylor Clarke had a surprisingly solid season, and his projected salary is so low that it makes sense to bring him back.
Then the Royals have some decisions to make. Sam Long pitched well over the final two months, and his projected salary would be quite low, but the Royals may not want to commit to a guaranteed contract and 40-man roster spot with him, instead preferring to bring him back on a minor league deal. Kyle Wright and James McArthur each have a low projected salary since both pitchers missed the entire season, but the injury history of each may make it not worth guaranteeing them any money. Daniel Lynch IV had a shiny ERA, but one of the worst FIPs in baseball at 4.67, pitching in a lot of low-leverage situations. Bailey Falter did not look good after being acquired from the Pirates and is out of options, so the Royals will have to determine if he fits into next year’s plans. MJ Melendez seems likely to be non-tendered after a miserable start to the season that left him in Triple-A most of the rest of the year.
And the big decision will have to be made on Jonathan India. Like I said, it is more likely his projected salary will be in the $9 million range after he earned just over $7 million this season. He had a career-worst season, hitting .233/.323/.346, and was below replacement level, according to fWAR. But he also has a solid track record before this year with a career .346 on-base percentage, and despite his poor season, he was still fourth on the team in OBP. The Royals gave up Brady Singer to get him, and in his end-of-the-year press conference, J.J. Picollo praised the season India had.
Players are eligible for arbitration once they accrue at least three or more years of service time (plus certain “Super Two” players) but are not yet eligible for free agency. Clubs have to decide whether or not to “tender” the player a contract. If a player is “non-tendered”, they become free agents that can sign with any team.
If the player is tendered, the two sides negotiate on a salary, and if they are unable to come to an agreement by February, each side submits a figure to an independent arbitrator. The arbitrator will pick a side to win, and cannot split the difference. Salaries depend largely on service time. Players cannot receive more than a 20 percent pay cut.
Contracts for arbitration-eligible players used to be non-guaranteed, meaning they could still be cut in spring training without teams obligated to pay the entire salary, but now those contracts are fully guaranteed.
According to Cot’s Contracts, the Royals have $74.6 million in salary obligations for 2026, which will rise by an additional $11.5 million when they pick up the $13.5 million club option (minus the $2 million buyout) on Salvador Perez. The deadline to tender or non-tender players is typically near the end of November.
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