The Kansas City Royals missed the playoffs in 2025, finishing with a record of 82-80 on the season. They finished third in the division, six games behind the Guardians, and the second team out in the Wild Card race, finishing five games out. After an 86-76 campaign in 2024, snagging a Wild Card spot and making it to the ALDS, what should the expectations for the team be in 2026?
Obviously, this is before we know what the roster construction will be, as the 2025 season hasn’t even made it to the World Series yet. However, as someone who predicted the Royals to win 91 games this season, win the division and get eliminated in the ALCS, I had high hopes for the 2025 season.
With that being said, I think that the Royals should take that type of step forward in 2026. I think they regressed this year for a number of different reasons. First, the starting pitching staff was extremely banged up. Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic, all the original five starters spent time on the IL. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright never made it off the IL to help the team.
Second, the offense took a huge step back. The hitting with runners in scoring position was laughably bad, and the Royals had a lot of holes in their everyday lineup. The Royals have already tried to rectify this by not bringing back a pair of their assistant hitting coaches, Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon. It will be interesting to see how they try to improve their player personnel to improve the offense next season.
Let’s now move to 2026. Truthfully, the 2025 schedule was a tough one to start the season. The Royals got behind the ball, starting the season 8-14, while they did recover and win 16 of their next 18, then the month of June happened, and we all know about that. In that first 22-game stretch to start the season, the Royals played four playoff teams, including the Guardians twice. The bad start, paired with the 8-18 months of June never gave the Royals a true chance, as they were always chasing and never ahead.
At first glance of the 2026 schedule, it’s an easier beginning. From the end of March, through April, the Royals play four teams that made the playoffs this year. Over those 12 games, three are at home (Brewers) and they play nine games on the road (Yankees, Tigers and Guardians). However, they get games against bottom feeders like the Twins, Angels, White Sox, Athletics, Orioles and Braves. If the Royals can start hot and bank wins like they did in 2024, the path to the playoffs gets easier and not every game in August and September will have a must win feel like the 2025 season.
Player-wise, I think the Royals should experience better health overall, which will benefit the team. The starting pitching, as mentioned above, was brutally beat up this season, but the Royals now have plenty of starting depth, such as, Noah Cameron, Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert, and Bailey Falter. Some of those guys could get moved for a bat potentially, but the insurance of having them is very enticing to keep around.
Heading into the 2026 season, the Royals also won’t be banking of the services of Hunter Renfroe, Mark Canha, MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, and Dairon Blanco. Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen provide you with way higher potential and likely more production than those mentioned above. I also do think the Royals will sign an outfield bat, but I won’t speculate on that too much this early.
With the higher ceiling of personnel, I think Jonathan India might be an underrated bounce-back candidate offensively in 2026. He won’t have to worry about trying to play three different positions to start the season and hopefully, it’s a healthier season for him overall. Remember, in the third game of the season, he got hit in the face by a 100-mph cutter from Clase. In early June, he partially dislocated his shoulder diving for a ball against the Athletics – he never went on the IL for that. I could be wrong, but a healthy Jonathan India could have a bounce-back year, which could help propel the Royals back into October baseball.
The Royals have an easier start to the 2026 season, an opportunity to start ahead and stay that way for the rest of the season. The pitching should be way healthier; the offense is going to have some new voices and players with higher ceilings with better potential. I think the expectations for the Royals in 2026 should be a for-sure playoff team, while also being a serious threat to winning the division. For all the things that seemed to go wrong in 2025, I think they go right in 2026 for the boys in blue.
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