Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Inspired Entertainment rated slightly below consensus
Josh Nichols of B Riley Securities on October 27 commented on Buy-rated Inspired Entertainment:
“Our revenue estimate of $83 million is slightly below consensus of $83.5 million and represents +8.9% year-over-year growth, with a gross margin of 71.9% +260 bonus points year-over-year, as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin digital offerings,” Nichols wrote. “We model EBITDA of $30.3 million (36.5% margin) nominally below consensus of $30.5 million but +7.6% year-over-year.”
Las Vegas Sands top pick in Macau
Macquarie’s Chad Beynon looked at Las Vegas Sands in Macau on October 23:
“Las Vegas Sands remains a top Macau pick given its strong management team, capital returns, leading position in mass, and unrivaled capacity (i.e., rooms, tables, non-gaming),” Beynon wrote. “Additionally, Singapore continues to be an impressive source of strength and earnings. We raise our target prices by 3% to $64 (from $62) on our revised estimates.”
Sportradar not affected by prediction markets
Jefferies’ David Katz on October 26 analyzed Sportradar’s outlook:
“We have been getting questions on where Sportradar’s operator customers do business and whether the predictions markets could disintermediate its positioning,” Katz wrote. “Our views remain as follows: 1) Its customers are licensed in markets where online sports betting is legal, only do business in markets where OSB is formally legal or in markets where it is not formally illegal, and internal audits and reporting to the major sports leagues should mitigate risks here; and 2) Sportradar’s positioning is mandated by the leagues because it increases fan engagement and provides a licensed buffer between operators and leagues. Prediction markets do not offer the sophisticated bets that require a real-time data feed, which therefore renders them largely irrelevant for Sportradar for the time being.”
Churchill Downs growth project
Churchill Downs was analyzed in an October 23 note by Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas:
“We see a solid growth profile for the (Kentucky) Derby over the next three years as management has laid out its detailed plans. Last night, Churchill Downs announced a new growth project “Victory Run,” which will offer upgraded (but temporary) seating in 2027 and fully completed in time for the 2028 Derby. Management is targeting a ~20% return on the $280-$300 million spend (~$60 million) by year 3 driven by increased pricing/amenities with only a ~2% overall increase in seating capacity. Management also noted that the temporary seating could potentially drive growth in 2027 as well.”
Boyd properties stable; Las Vegas’ Orleans property weaker
Dan Politzer of J.P. Morgan on October 23 took a look at Boyd:
“Regionals are stable, but Boyd continues to see weakness in its destination business in Las Vegas locals/downtown Las Vegas,” Politzer wrote. “Management noted its 1,886-room Orleans property has been particularly weak; excluding Orleans, Boyd’s 3Q25 Las Vegas locals revenue/EBITDAR would have been up 2% year-over-year, thus implying Orleans revenue/EBITDAR was down $5-6 million year-over-year (very high flow-thru as this was mostly related to room revenues). We do not view this as a negative read to peer Red Rock Resorts, as we believe Boyd has more of a ‘destination’ customer mix, where the fly-in piece has been soft.”
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