For the first time in seven years, a new “Predator” movie is making its way to theaters. After sending both “Prey” and the animated “Predator: Killer of Killers” directly to Hulu, Disney is hoping that director Dan Trachtenberg can deliver a theatrical hit with the live-action “Predator: Badlands.” The question is, will enough people turn up to turn this pricey sci-fi flick into a box office success?
As of this writing, “Badlands” is expected to pull in between $17 and $25 million domestically when it debuts next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That is, admittedly, on the low side for a movie of this size. Disney was probably aiming for something closer to last year’s “Alien: Romulus,” which opened to $42 million en route to an eventual $350.8 million worldwide total against an $80 million budget.
If current projections hold, Trachtenberg’s latest will fall somewhere between 2010’s “Predators” ($24.7 million opening/$127.2 million worldwide) and 2018’s “The Predator” ($24.6 million opening/$160.5 million worldwide). Then again, this franchise has always had a lower ceiling than “Alien,” for example. The highest-grossing entry, somewhat ironically, is 2004’s “Alien vs. Predator” at $177.4 million worldwide. The standalone “Predator” films have always hovered closer to the $100 million mark globally, no matter what the budget.
The original 1987 “Predator” starring Arnold Schwarzenegger was a big hit that grossed $98.2 million theatrically, but that was on an $18 million budget. In this case, Disney needs a much bigger result. While the budget has yet to be confirmed, given the scale previewed in the trailers, it’s unlikely to come in at less than the $80 million spent on “Romulus.” For comparison’s sake, Trachtenberg spent $65 million making “Prey,” which was met with widespread acclaim but dumped directly to Hulu in 2022.
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Can Predator successfully go from streaming to the big screen again?
“Predator: Badlands” is set in the future on a distant planet and centers on a young Predator (Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi) who has been cast out from his clan. With an unlikely ally in Thia (Elle Fanning), they embark on a dangerous journey in search of the ultimate adversary. Thia is notably a Weyland-Yutani android, firmly connecting this movie to the “Alien” universe.
To what degree that helps sell tickets remains to be seen but, based on these early numbers, the movie is going to need a lot of help from overseas markets. “Romulus” made $245.5 million internationally, or 70% of its total haul, including a whopping $110.2 million in China. Disney certainly can’t rely on that happening, but “Badlands” is the kind of movie that can play well outside of North America.
“Prey” was incredibly well received, but its streaming release was a mistake, I maintain. Not unlike what happened with Pixar, audiences have come to expect that this franchise is for streaming and not for theaters. Tracking suggests people aren’t convinced, broadly, that this is worth the trip to a theater. Then again, if word of mouth is good enough, things can change. It also doesn’t hurt that this “Predator” movie is PG-13, which could open it up to a larger audience.
We’ll be coming off of a straight-up dead Halloween frame at the box office, so viewers may well be ready for a blockbuster worthy of the big screen experience. Competition might be a bit of an issue, as “The Running Man” and “Now You See Me: Now You Don’t” both open the following weekend. As of right now, it seems like an uphill battle. We’ll see how it unfolds.
“Predator: Badlands” reaches theaters on November 7, 2025.
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