Disney/20th Century’s “Predator: Badlands” is giving theaters a bigger boost after a sluggish October than expected, earning an estimated $40 million opening weekend from 3,725 theaters and an additional $40 million overseas for an $80 million global launch.
With that result, Dan Trachtenberg’s third installment in the sci-fi franchise — and first released in theaters after “Prey” and “Predator: Killer of Killers” were released on Hulu — has earned the best opening weekend for any solo “Predator” film even after inflation adjustment, passing “Predator 2,” which opened to $13.3 million in 1990 or $36 million in today’s money.
The highest post-inflation opening for any “Predator” film belongs to “Alien vs. Predator,” which in 2004 opened to $38.2 million or around $60 million after adjustment. Speaking of “Alien,” “Predator: Badlands” is opening just a couple steps below that series’ most recent installment, “Alien: Romulus,” which opened to $42 million and finished with $105 million domestic and $350 million worldwide.
Whether “Badlands,” which carries a reported $105 million budget before marketing, can match “Romulus” despite the loads of competition coming in the weeks ahead will depend on how far the film’s strong word-of-mouth can travel among those who have never been interested in “Predator.” The film sports a franchise-high A- on CinemaScore to go with Rotten Tomatoes scores of 85% critics and 96% audience and a 4.5/5 overall score on PostTrak.
Next weekend, “Predator: Badlands” will go against Paramount’s R-rated adaptation of Stephen King’s “The Running Man” starring Glen Powell and directed by Edgar Wright. It is projected for a $23-25 million opening.
By contrast, “Badlands” is a PG-13 action-adventure, a departure from the series’ usual R-rated horror roots. That could help the film in expanding its reach beyond hardcore fans as it will also try to be an action-packed alternative to the month’s biggest films, “Wicked: For Good” and “Zootopia 2.” If it does, “Predator: Badlands” could post a modest profit from its theatrical run alone, though as it stands it will most likely get into the black from post-theatrical revenue.
Meanwhile, “Badlands” isn’t the only good box office result for one of the film’s stars, Elle Fanning. Arthouse audiences in Los Angeles and New York can see her this weekend in Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” in a performance that could land her an Oscar nomination.
Neon has released the Cannes Grand Prix winner also starring Renate Reinsve and Stellan Skarsgard in four theaters this weekend for a limited release opening of $200,000, good for a per theater average of $50,000.
Back in wide release, Paramount/Constantin’s “Regretting You” continues to hold splendidly with $7.3 million in its third weekend, giving it a domestic total of $38.7 million and $71 million globally as it dropped a mere 7% from its previous weekend.
Universal/Blumhouse’s “Black Phone 2” is in third with $5.3 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $70 million, the highest total for any Blumhouse release in the past two years.
Two newcomers complete the top 5, starting with Amazon MGM’s inspirational film “Sarah’s Oil” with $4.4 million from 2,410 locations. Telling the story of Sarah Rector, a Black girl in the early 20th century who inherited seemingly worthless land that was rich in oil, the film has been driven by an audience that skews older, Black and female; and like most faith-based/inspirational films, has earned an A+ on CinemaScore.
Just behind “Sarah’s Oil” is “Nuremberg,” a rare wide release from Sony Pictures Classics that has earned $4.1 million from 1,820 locations. The film stars Russell Crowe as Nazi leader Hermann Goring in his famed post-WWII trial, with Rami Malek as the Army psychologist assigned to him. The film has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 68% critics and 95% audience.
The two specialty misfires of the week are Black Bear’s “Christy” and Mubi’s “Die My Love,” both of which are opening to less than $3 million. “Christy,” which stars Sydney Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin, opened to just $1.3 million from 2,011 locations as the actress’ social media buzz didn’t equate to moviegoing interest.
“Die My Love” did slightly better with $2.8 million from 1,982 theaters, but has been panned by audiences with a D+ on CinemaScore and a 43% audience RT score. Mubi spent big on the Lynne Ramsay psychological drama with Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson, acquiring the film at Cannes for $24 million, but any hopes of it being a similar success to “The Substance” are being swiftly dashed.
More to come…
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