We are now fully in the depths of winter. The Chiefs, for the first time in a decade, have failed to achieve the playoffs. So Kansas City sports fans, still lacking an NBA or NHL team, can only spend the cold months waiting for Spring Training. It will be here soon, but not soon enough.
The Royals did a flurry of roster transactions last week, and the team already seems drastically improved. But if or when they’ll do more is an open question. Still, the roster has changed enough to finally make this an interesting exercise. Also, it’s not like I’ll let that stop me from predicting a couple of new additions.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
I’m not sure Isaac Collins is a leadoff hitter, but if he isn’t, then the only other option is Maikel Garcia. And if you move Garcia to leadoff, then Salvy is batting fourth again, and Collins shifts down to sixth or seventh. I’d rather give Collins and his elite chase rate a shot at the leadoff spot and let Maikel’s superior power drive in some runs and take some pressure off of Sal. In the sixth spot in the order, Sal’s power still plays and the strikeouts don’t hurt as badly.
The Royals have said they feel confident enough in Jensen’s catching that they don’t need to carry a third catcher, but when your catchers are both regularly in the starting lineup, you need someone in case of injury. Lane Thomas can platoon in any of the three outfield spots, depending on who is struggling the most. Adam Frazier brings the coveted Veteran Presence, and Tyler Tolbert offers his pinch-running skills as well as the versatility to play seven positions on the field.
Adam Frazier is currently unsigned, but we all know the team wants to bring him back. I can’t imagine another team particularly wants him very badly. Hopefully, he won’t cost much.
This notably leaves Nick Loftin, Michael Massey, and John Rave off the team. But they could all be among the first guys up in case of injury. If, for some reason, the Royals don’t bring back Frazier, I’d expect Massey to get that roster spot.
This leaves Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, and Kris Bubic out of the rotation among the guys who made starts for KC last year. Kolek has options left, so he’ll be in Omaha staying stretched out in case he is needed. Falter doesn’t have options so he will be in the bullpen. Where will Bubic be?
LHP Danny Coulombe LHP Matt Strahm
This is actually really tough to predict. Also in the mix are Steven Cruz, James McArthur, Jonathan Bowlan, Daniel Lynch IV, and Luinder Avila. But all of them have options; Mears and Falter do not. Erceg, Bubic, and Schreiber do, but they’re not going anywhere. Estévez and Coulombe don’t, but wouldn’t be demoted even if they did. Alex Lange is the one guy I could see losing his spot to someone else, but I also think he’s going to shine the most out of that group, and the Royals may not be quite ready to give up on Avila as a starter in Omaha.
As you can see above, I initially predicted the Royals would sign Danny Coulombe. I really liked him, but with the trade for Matt Strahm, that’s almost certainly not going to happen. That said, as much as I liked Coulombe, Strahm was better last year. Coulombe finished the season with a 0.7 fWAR, but Strahm finished with a 1.5 fWAR, making him one of the 20 most valuable relievers in all of MLB last season. He struck out more, walked fewer, and relied less on stranding runners to accomplish his goals, too. Strahm represents a massive upgrade over Coulombe, even more over Zerpa, and drastically improves the top end of the Royals’ bullpen for 2026.
Bubic is the other “weird” inclusion, but given the makeup of the rotation and his health concerns, it might make the most sense for KC to try to move him back to the bullpen. Of course, it might be in the best interest of a player in a contract year to pitch out of the rotation if he thinks he can stay healthy, and I could also see KC conceding on that point for the upside he offers the rotation. In that case, I think he’d take Bergert’s spot with Ryan heading down to Omaha to remain stretched out with his fellow former Padre.
Bonus: some other potential lineups
If they acquire Jarren Duran
In this scenario, Kyle Isbel becomes a part-time player against righties and a late innings defensive replacement. They could also try Collins at 2B to bump India out of the lineup, but he hasn’t looked particularly good there in limited time. Duran doesn’t really walk enough to be a good leadoff guy, so he goes into the middle of the lineup. Unfortunately, that causes a lot of havoc with left-right matchups, but hopefully it can be overcome.
If they acquire Ketel Marte
If they got Ketel Marte, he offers plenty of thump in the middle to allow Maikel Garcia to shift up to leadoff full-time. This puts three of your lefties in the last four spots, making them vulnerable to left-handed relievers but perhaps Thomas will be threatening enough off the bench to preclude some of that.
If they acquire Brendan Donovan
Donovan doesn’t walk any more than Duran, but he strikes out a lot less and has consistently carried a significantly higher batting average, which allows him to consistently reach good OBPs. Hitting him leadoff allows the lineup to flow much better than Duran in the middle.
I came into this final lineup exercise with two assumptions:
- Brendan Donovan would fit this team better than the other two guys we like to talk about as big targets.
- Jarren Duran would make sense to lead off, but Donovan would not.
I initially designed the lineups with Duran leading off and Donovan hitting somewhere in the middle, and I was about to come off my thought that Donovan fit the team much better when I saw what that did to the handedness of the lineup. But then I decided to check their numbers to make sure I knew what I was talking about. That’s when I realized the truth – that Donovan made a heck of a lot more sense leading off than Duran. So, yeah, I stand by the idea that Donovan would fit this club much better than Duran. Ketel Marte probably fits it best for the added thump he brings, but he’d also be the most expensive and oldest out of the three, so his fit is worse for reasons of cost.
If the Royals acquire Donovan or Marte, I would expect them to immediately trade Jonathan India for salary relief elsewhere. They barely have room for him on the roster without a second baseman who is nearly guaranteed to be better. It remains a mystery why they decided to guarantee him $8 million for 2026 early on, except that his chase rates are elite, and they’ve spent this offseason proving that matters to them, now. Even so, it’s baffling.
By the way, I started with the Everyday Lineup, but honestly, that’s almost certainly not the one they’re opening the season with. The Royals are in Atlanta on Opening Day, which means they probably have to face Chris Sale – one of the toughest left-handed pitchers on the planet – to open the season. Expect Lane Thomas to get in there, probably instead of Cags, against him.
*In case you wanted to read what I originally wrote about Coulombe, instead:
Danny Coulombe is the new addition here you might not be anticipating, but the Royals have a clear need for lefties in their bullpen after allowing Sam Long to leave and trading away Angel Zerpa. Coulombe has gone four straight seasons with ERAs under 2.00, and the last three, he’s earned himself quite a few strikeouts while he was at it. It’s fair to wonder at the greatly diminished K-BB% from last season, but he went on the IL late in the year with shoulder fatigue, and it’s fair to wonder how long that had been bothering him before he finally missed time since he started the year so brilliantly.
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