Look, I’m just gonna say what “If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay” is actually really all about. This isn’t about music. This isn’t about two country stars collaborating. Let’s just lay it all out right here, and be open and honest with ourselves. This song is about setting up a thirst trap for shallow music consumers that are more like celebrity gossip hounds to fall into head first. And damn, if it isn’t sinister and devilishly effective in this pursuit.
You tend to feel bad for Carley Pearce, not because she hasn’t enjoyed a quite successful career compared to so many country hopefuls not signed to major labels, or being considered by the big award shows. But at some point it’s like the industry made a choice: We can only have one woman be a superstar at once, so let’s shove all our chips on the Lainey Wilson square. It still feels like that’s a bet waiting to pay off.
Meanwhile, Carly Pearce has done a much better job keeping it country, keeping it classy, putting out critically-acclaimed records, yet continues to be generally ignored in the greater consciousness. Now here comes this new crop of country women, namely Ella Langley who doesn’t have nearly the songwriting chops of Carly Pearce, and Megan Moroney who can barely sing compared to Carly, and they’re topping the Billboard all-genre singles and albums chart simultaneously.
Timing is so incredibly critical to the success of a country artist, and Carly just came around a tick too soon to take advantage of the retrenching of country women at the top of the mainstream … or did she? Clearly, that’s a major part of the calculus with “If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay.” This song is about trying to inject Carly Pearce back into the conversation, and using Riley Green’s mustache to do so.
The Country Music Antichrist Scott Borchetta is back in control at Big Machine Records where both Carly Pearce and Riley Green are signed, and poppa needs a hit. They see what’s going on with Ella Langley getting so much heat after her Riley Green collabs, and they want to start pulling on the teat of that cash cow themselves.
It took six songwriters to compose “If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay,” and none of them were Carly Pearce or Riley Green—two artists known for co-writing most or all of their songs. That said, the song itself is just fine, as is the music. It’s not as much as a clever country music double-entendre as a self-evident oxymoron. But it’s not a song that especially compels you to turn it off with the steel guitar and the string arrangement behind strongly centered vocal performances.
The worst part about this song is the blatant obviousness of what’s going on here: put these two in these hot and bothered moments to stir the rumor mill just like we saw with Ella Langley, and just like Megan Moroney benefited from via Morgan Wallen and “Tennessee Orange,” (Moroney also had a fling with Green, btw). They’re trying to use gossipy intrigue to reignite the Carly Pearce franchise to compete with other country women.
But what’s so cool about the continued success Ella Langley is enjoying with “Choosin’ Texas” is how there’s not some guy involved. It’s a solo performance, and it allows her to stand on her own two feet. Same with Megan Moroney, and how it’s the strong, personal songwriting in her album Cloud 9 that’s resonating with audiences, including the song “Who Hurt You?” that’s likely about Riley Green.
“If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay” just feels like a cynical calculation, and one that’s too obviously tooled to country radio play as opposed to something that could stand on its own two feet, and is being used to leverage the new Whiskey Riff-style rumor milling of relationships, which is the new school approach to glossy magazine celebrity gossip. They want people to ask, “Are Carly Pearce and Riley Green dating?” and not get an answer.
Again, you do feel bad that it seems like Carly Pearce got jobbed by the Music Row system, and sidelined for others when she was at the peak of her creative powers. And it’s not that “If I Don’t Leave I’m Gonna Stay” is a bad song, especially for the mainstream. But just don’t make this all so obvious with the imagery and the marketing what’s going on here where we all feel silly for paying attention.
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